Welcome all to the first in a series that I plan on doing with some regularity. Essentially, I take a comment that I read in various threads on the site and take a look at it in some detail. I’ll make a few charts, list off a few stats, etc. I will only pick comments that I think are interesting - this is not a public shaming. I also take requests.
I’m going to skip the Jonah Bolden part (I think we saw his unreliability on full display in the last couple games) and focus on Mike and JJ. For some context, this was in response to a question regarding a hypothetical last second three to tie the game with JJ under duress, Mike with a normal contest, and Jonah wide open.
JJ Redick’s Shooting in Regular Season vs. Playoffs
Just to keep things simple, I’m going to restrict JJ’s data to only his time with the Clippers and Sixers. Table 1 just breaks out makes and attempts by season and type of game.
Yep, looks like across the board JJ shoots worse from three in the playoffs compared to the regular season, and about the same from two. Now, there are obviously potential reasons for this as quality of opponent increases, more time to gameplan, etc. Table 2 breaks out his field goal percentage by quarter.
Of note, JJ appears to be rather substantially worse in the first and second quarters, and slightly better in the third and fourth quarters comparing playoffs to the regular season. Quick tangent — I dislike “clutchness” as a metric because it arbitrarily gives value to shots that go in at a certain time/margin and removes value from shots that prevent that time/margin scenario from happening. Obviously these tables remove some nuance, but there you go. Also, Figure 1 is me showing off a new graphics format and shows off in a descriptive (not predictive) manner JJ’s approximate shooting percentages by location.
Data via NBA.com
Mike Scott’s Advanced Metrics Regular Season vs. Playoffs
Since Mike has a theoretically more rounded skill set than JJ, we’ll stick to some overall advanced metrics, OBPM and DBPM. Figure 2 breaks out each of his seasons that also had a playoff appearance.
Good news! Mike Scott has been better offensively and defensively in the playoffs than the regular season both of the last two years. Bad news! DBPM does not love him.