FanPost

Updated schedule and predictions

Pre-All-Star Break

Date Opponent Home/Road East/West Playoff team? 538 Win Probability Result
Tue, Feb 6 vs Washington home east yes 72 WIN
Fri, Feb 9 vs New Orleans home west yes 65 WIN
Sat, Feb 10 vs LA home west no 65 WIN
Mon, Feb 12 vs NY Knicks home east no 80 WIN
Wed, Feb 14 vs Miami home east yes 74 WIN

This was a huge stretch for the Sixers and they took advantage. A 5-0 homestretch has left them in great shape. They are currently in 7th place in the East at 30-25, with only one more loss than the 4th place Washington Wizards. The Wiz, Pacers, Bucks, Sixers are closely clumped with a gap of 3 losses back to the Heat and 4 to the Pistons. Based on this, and the upcoming schedule the Sixers are heavy favorites to make the playoffs, at 97% according to fivethirtyeight's Carmelo projections. In fact, they are now projected at 47 wins, tied with the Bucks for the 4th seed in the East. Moreover they have complied a 9-3 record against their mid-pack Eastern teams (from Washington to Detroit).

After this long homestand the Sixers have just over half of their remaining games on the road (13 at home, 14 on the road). However only ten of the remaining games come against playoff teams. That is almost equal to the number of games against teams who have incentives to tank. They have nine such games, including two directly after the all-star break against Orlando and Chicago as well as more against Atlanta and New York twice, Dallas, and Memphis.

For comparison Washington has a brutal remaining schedule with 18 out of their remaining 27 against current playoff teams. Milwaukee has 14 of their 26 remaining games against that group, and that includes a difficult West coast road trip. Indiana similarly has 14 of 24 against playoff teams, and a West Coast road trip.

Difficult Stretch

Date Opponent Home/Road East/West Playoff team? 538 Win Probability
Sun, Feb 25 @ Washington road east yes 34
Tue, Feb 27 @ Miami road 42
MARCH OPPONENT
Thu, Mar 1 @ Cleveland road east yes 37
Fri, Mar 2 vs Charlotte home east no 61
Sun, Mar 4 @ Milwaukee road east yes 40
Tue, Mar 6 @ Charlotte road east no 41
Thu, Mar 8 @ Miami road east yes 43
Sun, Mar 11 @ Brooklyn road east no 59

However the schedule is not without pitfalls, and the Sixers face a difficult stretch shortly after the all-star break in late February and early March (after the two eminently winnable games against tanking Orlando and Chicago.) This is likely to be the crucial test for the team. They play seven out of eight games on the road, including two back to backs against playoff teams, the first game against Washington and at home against Charlotte. They are only favored in two of the matchups and one of them is the back to back game against Charlotte, the night after playing Cleveland in a nationally televised game. Ordinarily one would think that Embiid might rest the first night of a back to back since the second is at home, but facing LeBron and Cleveland on national television (TNT) makes that unlikely.

Moreover this stretch features a number of games with the teams directly in front of the Sixers in the standings (Washington, Milwaukee) as well as a team close behind them (Miami) and a Charlotte team that seemingly refuses to tank. If the Sixers can win even three or four of these games it will make a playoff appearance virtually certain. More importantly it will give the Sixers an opportunity to pass Washington and Milwaukee in the standings or clinch a tiebreaker or at least a tie in the season series.

Soft Landing

Date Opponent Home/Road East/West Playoff team? 538 Win Probability
Tue, Mar 13 vs Indiana home east yes 68
Thu, Mar 15 @ NY Knicks road east no 51
Fri, Mar 16 vs Brooklyn home east no 77
Mon, Mar 19 vs Charlotte home east no 68
Wed, Mar 21 vs Memphis home west no 79
Thu, Mar 22 @ Orlando road east no 54
Sat, Mar 24 vs Minnesota home west yes 61
Mon, Mar 26 vs Denver home west yes 68
Wed, Mar 28 vs NY Knicks home east no 75
Fri, Mar 30 @ Atlanta road east no 65
APRIL OPPONENT
Sun, Apr 1 @ Charlotte road east no 47
Tue, Apr 3 vs Brooklyn home east no 58
Wed, Apr 4 @ Detroit road east no 42
Fri, Apr 6 vs Cleveland home east yes 70
Sun, Apr 8 vs Dallas home west no 78
Tue, Apr 10 @ Atlanta road east no 65
Wed, Apr 11 vs Milwaukee home east yes

61

That is because the Sixers end the season with a remarkably easy stretch in which the only two games in which they are not favorites are on the road at Charlotte and at Detroit. 11 out of the final 17 are at home and three of the road games are against tanking teams (in bold.) Only five of the seventeen games are against current playoff teams. Beating up on the non-playoff teams is crucial here.

A cause for concern during this stretch are the four back to back games (which is less of a concern now that Embiid is cleared for them, but still a concern.) Thankfully two of the second-night games are against Orlando and Brooklyn, but the final two are at Detroit and against Milwaukee to close the season. Hopefully by that point playoff seedings have been set and the game is meaningless. Finally, many had assumed that Cleveland would have locked up their spot before the Apr. 6 game, but at this point that game looks to be important to both teams.

Final Analysis

Who the hell knows? The Sixers have made a habit out of beating good teams (Houston on the road, Toronto, Boston, San Antonio twice) and crapping the bed against the dregs of the league (Sacramento, Lakers, Phoenix, Memphis.) However what will most likely be decisive over the final stretch of the season is how they fare against their peer group. Seven of their remaining games come against Eastern conferences rivals within four games of the Sixers (from Washington above them to Detroit below them). As of today the Sixers are 9-3 against this group, which is a good sign. And with John Wall out it is fair to argue that the Sixers are more talented than all of these teams. However, they need to prove if on the court. If they take care of business they could finish as high as the fourth seed, but if the bench continues to implode or the outside shooting continues to struggle there are certainly scenarios in which the Sixers could find themselves on the outside looking in.

My prediction: 43 wins and the 7th seed.

Updated prediction: 45 wins and the 5th seed

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