Markelle Fultz in Context

I like putting player performances and statistics in context of other players. Hearing that a player has a certain PER or BPM or whatever metric you choose can be meaningless if you do not know the distribution/context of that particular piece of information. I also believe in pairing the eye test with analytics so that when the two agree I can say that I am confident in a certain assertion. When they disagree, I can then determine if my eyes are bad (likely) or if the particular application of the statistics was wrong. I find this to be most interesting in the case of Markelle Fultz.

Here are my main eyeball test takes from this season in no particular order. I doubt they will be very controversial (through the most recent Clippers game).

1. He seems to have a knack for rebounding, especially on the offensive glass
2. Shot still needs serious work, although the finishing around rim seems a plus
3. More yamming in faces than I anticipated
4. Despite a few turnovers when he gets in too deep without a plan, he both sees creative passes and is able to execute them
5. Defense is inconsistent, although recently better, and seems to be something that could be between fine and great as he gets older
6. Free throws appear to be a major pain point

We will be focusing on assists, rebounding, and shooting for now. In order to pair my impressions with the data, we can rely first on a nice positional point — Fultz is a guard in the most classic sense. Whether he is a point/shooting/combo, he is definitely not a wing or forward. Therefore, I think we should compare Fultz against the first seasons of two non-overlapping groups: 1) recent first round draft picks that were labeled guards and 2) recent All-Star guards. Fultz’s data will be both this season and last season. All other players in the set had their first seasons only, whether they played one game or 82. For your reference, the All-Star guards were Victor Oladipo, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Klay Thompson, John Wall, James Harden, Isaiah Thomas, DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, and Chris Paul. The first round guards were chosen from 2005-2013 drafts, which was the range of drafts represented by the All-Stars.

Assists

The assist metric we will be using for this broad look will be %AST, defined by NBA.com as “The percentage of a team’s assists that a player has while on the court”. The other percentage metrics are defined similarly.

Rebounds

Shooting

True Shooting: “A shooting percentage that factors in the value of three-point field goals and free throws in addition to conventional two-point field goals”

Authors note: ouch

Impact

Player Impact Estimate Definition: “PIE measures a player’s overall statistical contribution against the total statistics in games they play in. PIE yields results which are comparable to other advanced statistics (e.g. PER) using a simple formula.”

Player Comparisons

Now that we have seen the distributions of the data, let’s take a look at individual player comparisons. For this next part, the comparison group will always be the mean of the all-star guard group for that specific statistic.

Assists: Markelle’s %AST is greater than that of the recent All-Star mean. The following players also had an %AST greater than the All-Star mean.

Rebounds: Markelle had a %OREB, %DREB, and %TREB each greater than the All-Star mean, and so did the following players.

Shooting: Markelle (unsurprisingly) had a TS less than that of the All-Star group mean. THe following players were also below the All--Star mean.

Overall: The following players had an above average %AST, below average TS, and at least two above average of %DREB, %OREB, and %TREB — essentially the most similar profiles to Markelle.

Conclusion

Any time you use a simple yes/no filter (like the second half of the article), and choose slightly arbitrary cutoffs, you are bound to lose some nuance. Further, this is not a predictive exercise, especially due to the strange circumstances surrounding his shot loss and rebuild. However, I do think that there are some interesting comparisons produced. I personally like the half Rondo half Westbrook as positive outcome. Not quite the nuclear athleticism (or lack of conscience) as Russ, and not quite the passing virtuoso (or total asshole) as Rondo. I do think though if you squint a little when he pushes the break hard and gets to the rack and also rebounds with his length you can see that sort of player in there somewhere.