After doing some work based on deanondraft’s "Which Prospects Get to the Rim the Most" 2014 and 2015 iterations (thanks hoop-math, and dean), I have taken unassisted rim FG in the half-court minus putbacks to approximate the success of creating shots at the rim against a set defense. This does include post-ups, and please take the stats with a grain of salt due to NCAA play-by-play data, but there are interesting conclusions to be made. Keep in mind that these attempts should be slightly up overall compared to last year given the pace increase. Let me know if there are any progress I missed. Additionally, I didn’t include bigs, as their unassisted points are largely post-ups, and are assisted far more often at the rim than guards.
For anyone unfamiliiar, MP is minutes played, UA FG is unassisted field goals at the rim, AST FG is assisted field goals at the rim, and UA FG/40 is unassisted field goals at the rim per-40 minutes.
|Player||MP||UA FG||Ast FG||UA FG/40|
Isaiah Taylor has a pretty impressive number here, as well as Gary Payton II, Grayson Allen, and Josh Adams (s/o Rubes). Marvelle Harris and Taylor are both probably non-prospects, but both show the kind of getting to the rim quickness one might need. Josh Adams may not quite be good enough on defense, but he’s flashed impressive free throw rate, gets to the rim well, and decent shooting numbers to be a sleeper prospect.
Grayson Allen’s slashing game appears to be pretty effective in the NCAA, and was effective last year in his limited minutes. Even though he’s mostly a straight-line driver, he draws fouls and gets to the rim at a good rate, and appears to be a plus shooter. Likely will be defensively challenged though. Overall I think he’s clearly a better prospect than say, Nik Stauskas. Gary Payton is an older prospect who also has plus athleticism, appears to be a Kris Dunn-lite.
Also, nothing particularly red-flagged by way of Kris Dunn or Demetrius Jackson, who both get to the rim adequately, but not great either despite the reported athleticism for those guys.
Baldwin, Monte Morris, Jamal Murray, and particularly Tyler Ulis have concerningly low scores here. Ulis being unable to get to the rim effectively in the half court will separate him from the likes of Isaiah Thomas, while Murray appears not to have the athleticism to get clean separation in the half court. This really concerns me as far as Ulis’ NBA prospects, as a tiny guy he needs excellent athleticism to survive.
As for Baldwin, it speaks to his noted somewhat lesser burst athleticism and handle, and he may be served better playing off the ball. As a wing, this number is somewhat less of an issue.
|MP||UA FG||Ast FG||UA FG/40|
I included a somewhat larger wing list. Troy Williams and Jaylen Brown stand out here. Obviously, Brown’s greatest strength is getting to the rim, so a good score here is what you should expect, and would be a major red flag otherwise. The excellent creation from Williams is definitely an indicator in his favor, as well, and has held up fairly strongly year-over-year.
Jae’Sean Tate, Nigel Hayes, and Allonzo Trier as well have shown some creation ability. Simmons here is not blowing you away, but combined with his transition attempts, free throw drawing, and ability to catch lobs, he is clearly an explosive player at the rim.
Buddy Hield also has a surprisingly strong score here, compared to last year where he was well below average. LeVert’s sample is notably smaller than the others here, but is quite good.
Ingram’s numbers are solid, but unspectacular here, though he is often playing off the ball.
Other players are notably significantly more "off-the-ball" players (e.g. Taurean Prince, Tyler Lydon, Jarrod Uthoff), who really play PF or C and don’t get much creation opportunity. Additionally, Some players haven’t shown exceptional athleticism to get to the rim, e.g. Patrick McCaw or Denzel Valentine, who struggles to get to the rim despite being somewhat ball dominant. Perry Ellis plays like more of a big on the current Kansas team, and likely is getting a significant amount of rim attempts from post-ups