FanPost

Which 2016 Prospects Get to the Rim the Most

After doing some work based on deanondraft’s "Which Prospects Get to the Rim the Most" 2014 and 2015 iterations (thanks hoop-math, and dean), I have taken unassisted rim FG in the half-court minus putbacks to approximate the success of creating shots at the rim against a set defense. This does include post-ups, and please take the stats with a grain of salt due to NCAA play-by-play data, but there are interesting conclusions to be made. Keep in mind that these attempts should be slightly up overall compared to last year given the pace increase. Let me know if there are any progress I missed. Additionally, I didn’t include bigs, as their unassisted points are largely post-ups, and are assisted far more often at the rim than guards.

For anyone unfamiliiar, MP is minutes played, UA FG is unassisted field goals at the rim, AST FG is assisted field goals at the rim, and UA FG/40 is unassisted field goals at the rim per-40 minutes.

Player MP UA FG Ast FG UA FG/40
Isaiah Taylor 982 51 10 2.08
Marvelle Harris 1246 64 3 2.05
Tyrone Wallace 901 42 5 1.86
Grayson Allen 1197 54 7 1.80
Josh Adams 1125 50 5 1.78
Anthony Barber 1278 53 7 1.66
Gary Payton 1057 41 21 1.55
Isaiah Briscoe 1035 38 17 1.47
Yogi Ferrell 1107 40 4 1.45
VanVleet '15 1104 37 4 1.34
Fred VanVleet 831 27 27 1.30
Melo Trimble 1081 34 2 1.26
Kris Dunn 1035 32 14 1.24
Demetrius Jackson 1104 32 18 1.16
Dwayne Bacon 917 26 19 1.13
Isaiah Whitehead 1062 30 3 1.13
Kay Felder 1176 28 12 0.95
Monte Morris 1218 28 7 0.92
Dejounte Murray 1067 24 9 0.90
Wade Baldwin 969 20 3 0.83
Jamal Murray 1198 23 8 0.77
Jalen Brunson 820 15 4 0.73
Tyler Ulis 1219 19 0 0.62
Malik Newman 803 10 1 0.50
Shake Milton 980 7 12 0.29

Isaiah Taylor has a pretty impressive number here, as well as Gary Payton II, Grayson Allen, and Josh Adams (s/o Rubes). Marvelle Harris and Taylor are both probably non-prospects, but both show the kind of getting to the rim quickness one might need. Josh Adams may not quite be good enough on defense, but he’s flashed impressive free throw rate, gets to the rim well, and decent shooting numbers to be a sleeper prospect.

Grayson Allen’s slashing game appears to be pretty effective in the NCAA, and was effective last year in his limited minutes. Even though he’s mostly a straight-line driver, he draws fouls and gets to the rim at a good rate, and appears to be a plus shooter. Likely will be defensively challenged though. Overall I think he’s clearly a better prospect than say, Nik Stauskas. Gary Payton is an older prospect who also has plus athleticism, appears to be a Kris Dunn-lite.

Also, nothing particularly red-flagged by way of Kris Dunn or Demetrius Jackson, who both get to the rim adequately, but not great either despite the reported athleticism for those guys.

Baldwin, Monte Morris, Jamal Murray, and particularly Tyler Ulis have concerningly low scores here. Ulis being unable to get to the rim effectively in the half court will separate him from the likes of Isaiah Thomas, while Murray appears not to have the athleticism to get clean separation in the half court. This really concerns me as far as Ulis’ NBA prospects, as a tiny guy he needs excellent athleticism to survive.

As for Baldwin, it speaks to his noted somewhat lesser burst athleticism and handle, and he may be served better playing off the ball. As a wing, this number is somewhat less of an issue.

Wings;
MP UA FG Ast FG UA FG/40
Troy Williams 827 35 26 1.69
Caris LeVert 464 19 1 1.64
Jaylen Brown 922 33 8 1.43
JaeSean Tate 813 28 29 1.38
Buddy Hield 1121 38 5 1.36
Malcolm Brogdon 1122 38 24 1.35
Nigel Hayes 1160 39 12 1.34
Allonzo Trier 730 23 3 1.26
Perry Ellis 1029 32 42 1.24
Ben Simmons 1151 33 43 1.15
Dillon Brooks 1118 32 16 1.14
Tyler Dorsey 959 27 8 1.13
Josh Hart 1072 30 27 1.12
Keita Bates-Diop 1040 29 18 1.12
Brandon Ingram 1127 30 5 1.06
Ron Baker 1037 26 16 1.00
Daniel Hamilton 1078 27 3 1.00
Luke Kennard 861 20 3 0.93
Sheldon McClellan 1043 24 16 0.92
Dorian Finney-Smith 1048 24 16 0.92
Marquese Chriss 791 18 22 0.91
Michael Gbinije 1212 26 17 0.86
Malik Beasley 954 19 14 0.80
Devin Robinson 767 14 9 0.73
DeAndre Bembry 1261 23 22 0.73
Wayne Selden 1007 18 14 0.71
Damion Lee 1007 18 13 0.71
Baker '15 1145 19 9 0.66
Dedric Lawson 1062 17 29 0.64
Denzel Valentine 985 15 12 0.61
Jarrod Uthoff 942 14 25 0.59
Tim Quarterman 952 13 7 0.55
Patrick McCaw 1113 15 10 0.54
Mikal Bridges 679 9 17 0.53
Svi 401 5 1 0.50
Taurean Prince 1106 8 26 0.29
Justin Jackson 962 6 23 0.25
Tyler Lydon 970 3 23 0.12

I included a somewhat larger wing list. Troy Williams and Jaylen Brown stand out here. Obviously, Brown’s greatest strength is getting to the rim, so a good score here is what you should expect, and would be a major red flag otherwise. The excellent creation from Williams is definitely an indicator in his favor, as well, and has held up fairly strongly year-over-year.

Jae’Sean Tate, Nigel Hayes, and Allonzo Trier as well have shown some creation ability. Simmons here is not blowing you away, but combined with his transition attempts, free throw drawing, and ability to catch lobs, he is clearly an explosive player at the rim.

Buddy Hield also has a surprisingly strong score here, compared to last year where he was well below average. LeVert’s sample is notably smaller than the others here, but is quite good.

Ingram’s numbers are solid, but unspectacular here, though he is often playing off the ball.

Other players are notably significantly more "off-the-ball" players (e.g. Taurean Prince, Tyler Lydon, Jarrod Uthoff), who really play PF or C and don’t get much creation opportunity. Additionally, Some players haven’t shown exceptional athleticism to get to the rim, e.g. Patrick McCaw or Denzel Valentine, who struggles to get to the rim despite being somewhat ball dominant. Perry Ellis plays like more of a big on the current Kansas team, and likely is getting a significant amount of rim attempts from post-ups

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