Whether you join me at the Second Annual Rights to Ricky Sanchez/Liberty Ballers NBA Draft Lottery Party (beginning at 6:00 PM at Buffalo Wild Wings in Northeast Philadelphia located at 9701 Roosevelt Boulevard - full details here) or not, the 76ers logo may come up numerous times during the NBA Draft Lottery. Depending what the contents of the envelope reveal, it may be the Sixers hit the lottery's jackpot. Or, it could mean that lady lottery luck didn't work with us.
The Draft Lottery show begins at 8:30 tonight on ESPN before Game 1 of the Warriors-Rockets Western Conference Finals series. For the first and only time during the playoffs, the non-contenders (and the Oklahoma City Thunder) take center stage. A top draft pick may not have the utmost importance in a draft deep at the beginning, but it's the best-case scenario for most teams. The Sixers, however, have more than one ball in their court. It could be a franchise-changing night.
Here's what you'll see. The NBA's Deputy Commissioner will reveal each team's selection in reverse logo, opening envelopes which have each upcoming selection in them with team logos. The Sixers unveiled a new logo recently, which will show up at least once during the lottery during their own pick. However, due to trades during and before the season, the Sixers could acquire picks originally belonging to the Heat and the Lakers, but only if the selections end up being sufficiently low.
Miami's pick stays with the Heat if they pick in the top 10, and they have the 10th worst record. Teams with better records can get lucky and jump in the lottery, which covers the top 3 selections, which would send the pick to the Sixers. LA's pick stays with the Lakers if they pick in the top 5, and they have the 4th worst record. The Sixers would need one team to jump Miami and/or two to jump LA if they want extra draft picks this season. If these don't go to the Sixers this season, they will in the future.
The key to determining whether the Sixers lucked into an extra pick depends on when the envelope reveal happens, and whether the Sixers logo is accompanied by something extra, as Sixers.com beat writer Max Rappaport recently showed:
For those worried if/when #6 comes up w/ PHI logo during drawing, we won’t know if it’s our 1st or LA’s, we will. pic.twitter.com/jUXMQW1DFY— Max Rappaport (@MaxRappaport) May 18, 2015
That small writing below the logo is the key: if the pick features that new logo pictured above, with writing below noting the team receives the pick from either the Lakers or the Heat (or both... ahem... #OneSixEleven). If the pick appears at seventh, or eleventh or lower, that guarantees that the Sixers received a pick from either Miami or Los Angeles.
Also: if the Sixers logo shows up at fifth or higher, that means it is their own pick, as the Miami and LA picks cannot convert in those spots.
Per LotteryBucket.com, the Sixers have a 22.66% chance of having more than one selection in the NBA draft, or slightly fewer than a 1/4 chance of having more than one pick. More individual scenarios can be seen below:
- The Lakers pick goes to the Sixers in 17.28% of lottery scenarios
- The Miami pick goes to the Sixers in 9.06% of lottery scenarios
- Both picks convert 3.68% of the time
- #OneSixEleven has a .28% chance of happening
Combined with their own pick, that leaves open a lot of possibilities. The most likely, though only at 21% of the time, finds the Sixers only with their own pick, ending up fourth, with the odds of ending up first, second, third, or fifth only, without acquiring another selection this year, all around 13-14% of the time. If you're into the exact odds of every scenario, I'd suggest checking out ZeroCool79 on the Sixers subreddit - that user created a chart with every potential outcome, and it's likelihood.
Even if the math's against it, expect the craziness tonight. Trust the Process, and hope Nerlens Noel (attending the draft on behalf of the Sixers) is our lucky charm.