I want to start by saying that I am a Jrue Holiday fan. I believe he'll develop into a pretty good point guard someday, but the notion that he's a future star or currently "great" at any facet of his game -- including defense -- is premature.
I've been down this road before. A Sixers rookie comes in, shows flashes, has a few good games and all of a sudden the words "star" and "great" are thrown around like fist pumps on the Jersey Shore. It happened with Thaddeus Young, and it happened with Marreese Speights. Now they're both considered one-dimensional bench players with questionable upside.
Sadly, I was the guy driving the Young and Speights bandwagons when they crashed and burned. In both cases Sixers fans (me included) continually bashed the head coach and clamored for more playing time. And in both cases we got our wish:
2007-2008 Thaddeus Young
November: 8 minutes per game
April: 29 minutes per game
2008-2009 Marreese Speights
November: 13 minutes per game
April: 21 minutes per game
2009-2010 Jrue Holiday
November: 14 minutes per game
March: 28 minutes per game
Add Jrue Holiday to the recent list of rookies who saw their playing time increase significantly and showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch. Add Jrue Holiday to the recent list of rookies who were dubbed the next big thing, future all-stars, franchise-players, etc. Now that we've seen Young and Speights fall flat on their face, should we hype the Jrue Holiday with caution?
Just like there's no guarantee Jrue Holiday's going to be a "star", there's no guarantee he's going to follow in the footsteps of Young and Speights. But having made the same mistake twice already, I've refrained from watching a Sixers game and saying, "Ma, Jrue's going to be star in this league!" Instead, I've relied on an arsenal of advanced statistics to put Jrue's rookie season in perspective.
Make the jump ...
First let's compare Holiday's advanced stats with the other rookie point guards who went in the first round:
PER | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | |
Jrue Holiday | 10.9 | .502 | .475 | 3.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 21.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 20.1 | 18.1 | 98 | 111 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Tyreke Evans | 18.5 | .535 | .479 | 2.6 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 25.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 13.3 | 26.0 | 108 | 110 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
Jonny Flynn | 13.4 | .510 | .460 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 24.5 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 17.3 | 24.4 | 98 | 112 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Stephen Curry | 14.7 | .560 | .526 | 1.5 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 22.8 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 17.3 | 20.6 | 104 | 110 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.0 |
Brandon Jennings | 14.7 | .468 | .422 | 1.9 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 30.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 12.9 | 26.3 | 99 | 104 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Ty Lawson | 16.8 | .605 | .560 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 24.2 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 15.6 | 18.1 | 119 | 110 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
Jeff Teague | 10.9 | .430 | .378 | 0.9 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 25.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 16.0 | 19.6 | 93 | 105 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Eric Maynor | 11.1 | .463 | .430 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 30.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 98 | 106 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Darren Collison | 16.1 | .533 | .488 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 31.8 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 19.1 | 23.7 | 102 | 110 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
Rodrigue Beaubois | 16.3 | .608 | .586 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 18.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 17.1 | 23.3 | 106 | 107 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
Toney Douglas | 13.3 | .564 | .542 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 13.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 20.5 | 107 | 112 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Jrue Holiday's rank (out of 11)
PER | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | |
JRUE | T10 | 8 | 7 | T-2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | T-6 | 3 | 11 | T-9 | T-7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | T-9 |
Among his fellow PG mates, Jrue ranks in the top five of only three categories: Offensive rebound percentage, Total Rebounding Percentage, and Block percentage.
***
Now let's compare Holiday's 'per 36' numbers with the same guys:
MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | |
Jrue Holiday | 1072 | 4.5 | 10.8 | .414 | 1.3 | 3.3 | .402 | 1.3 | 1.6 | .809 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 11.5 |
Tyreke Evans | 2152 | 7.2 | 15.6 | .463 | 0.5 | 1.9 | .261 | 4.8 | 6.4 | .744 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 19.7 |
Jonny Flynn | 1832 | 6.3 | 14.9 | .422 | 1.1 | 3.2 | .358 | 3.3 | 4.0 | .816 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 17.0 |
Stephen Curry | 2227 | 6.1 | 13.3 | .456 | 1.8 | 4.4 | .416 | 2.1 | 2.4 | .878 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 16.1 |
Brandon Jennings | 2052 | 6.1 | 16.7 | .366 | 1.9 | 4.9 | .383 | 3.1 | 3.9 | .809 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 17.2 |
Ty Lawson | 1186 | 5.5 | 10.7 | .514 | 1.0 | 2.2 | .432 | 3.1 | 4.0 | .773 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 15.1 |
Jeff Teague | 511 | 4.3 | 11.8 | .363 | 0.4 | 1.5 | .227 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .861 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 11.1 |
Eric Maynor | 881 | 4.3 | 10.8 | .400 | 0.7 | 2.2 | .296 | 1.6 | 2.2 | .736 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 10.9 |
Darren Collison | 1390 | 6.3 | 13.7 | .462 | 0.7 | 2.0 | .346 | 2.7 | 3.2 | .854 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 16.1 |
Rodrigue Beaubois | 473 | 7.2 | 14.2 | .511 | 2.1 | 5.3 | .400 | 1.8 | 2.1 | .821 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 18.3 |
Toney Douglas | 471 | 6.3 | 13.5 | .463 | 2.1 | 6.1 | .350 | 1.4 | 1.6 | .857 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 16.1 |
Jrue Holiday's rank (out of 11)
MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS | |
JRUE | 7 | 9 | T-9 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | T10 | T-7 | T-2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | T-6 | T-3 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Among his fellow PG mates, Jrue ranks in the top five of six categories: Three pointers made, Three pointers attempted, Three point percentage, Offensive Rebounding, Total Rebounding, and Blocks.
***
On to Jrue's "terrific" defense, in comparison to the same guys:
Opponent Point Guard 48-Minute Production
eFG% | AST | T/O | PTS | PER | |
Jrue Holiday | .538 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 20.8 | 19.6 |
Tyreke Evans | .469 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 20.8 | 18.5 |
Jonny Flynn | .486 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 20.8 | 18.8 |
Stepen Curry | .522 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 24.1 | 20.1 |
Brandon Jennings | .446 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 18.9 | 14.9 |
Ty Lawson | .473 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 20.8 | 16.6 |
Jeff Teague | .478 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 20.1 | 19.2 |
Eric Maynor* | .400 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 17.1 | 12.2 |
Darren Collison | .497 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 20.7 | 18.3 |
Rodrigue Beaubois | .452 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 19.1 | 14.4 |
Toney Douglas | .526 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 19.3 | 16.8 |
*These don't include Maynor's Utah numbers.
Jrue Holiday's rank (out of 11)
eFG%
AST
T/O
PTS
PER
JRUE
11
7
T-8
T-7
10
Among his fellow PG mates, Jrue ranks in the top five of zero categories.
***
Miscellaneous Defensive Statistics
Sixers Defensive Rating w/ Holiday: 110
Sixers Defensive Rating w/o Holiday: 108
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Five lineups Jrue has played the most minutes with:
Holday, Iverson, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert -- 138 minutes, 101 ORtg, 103 DRtg
Holiday, Green, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert -- 104 minutes, 108 ORtg, 95 DRtg
Holiday, Green, Iguodala, Young and Dalembert -- 77 minutes, 101 ORtg, 124 DRtg
Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert -- 62 minutes, 110 ORtg, 109 DRtg
Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, Young and Dalembert -- 42 minutes, 128 ORtg, 131 DRtg
Here are the same lineups (top 3) with Lou "Defensive Sieve" Williams substituted for Jrue Holiday:
Williams, Iverson, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert -- 36 minutes, 101 ORtg, 117 DRtg
Williams, Green, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert -- 12 minutes, 107 ORtg, 68 DRtg
Williams, Green, Iguodala, Young and Dalembert -- 77 minutes, 96 ORtg, 88 DRtg
The only lineup better defensively with Jrue instead of Lou is: Holiday, Iverson, Iguodala, Brand and Dalembert.
***
After digesting all these numbers (I know it's a lot), I can say with confidence that Jrue Holiday is nowhere near "great", and even his vaunted defense fails the numbers test. I've been on Basketball Reference, 82 games, Basketball Value and Synergy Sports. I've yet to find statistical evidence saying otherwise. If I missed something, please enlighten me.
Jrue is nothing but a project. He's the youngest player in the league and oozing with potential. But please don't make the same mistake I made with Thaddeus and M16. Calling Jrue a "future star" or "a player you can build your team around" at this point in his career is a bit much. And calling him "great" or "one of the Sixers best players" this year, is not wise, in my opinion.
Jrue has all the tools -- so does Marreese Speights. But! Jrue has all the tools plus a great attitude and work ethic -- so does Thaddeus Young.
Sure, Jrue has his moments, but for every good moment, he has a bad moment. No one remembers the bad plays because they're either blinded by the hype or remember that he's a 19 year-old rookie.
For the record, I hope Jrue Holiday is the next big thing. But there's a huge difference in hoping and expecting.