FanPost

Brett Brown System Performance & How to Address the Log Jam

With media day and training camp right around the corner, at this point it is incredulous that there hasn't been any major moves to solidify the roster. Even though the topic has been discussed ad nauseum, the front court log jam continues to overpower any and all conversation regarding the team. With how polarizing the debate is, it's hard to pick up on nuances individuals might have about the subject. And if you can't see my Noel Nut Hugger tattoo or smell it on my breath, I'm obviously in favor of keeping Noel over Okafor if it would come to a trade. However, my official opinion on the matter is that even though trading Okafor over Noel is the smarter thing to do regardless of perceived talent disparity, I'd rather the Sixers retain all the bigs instead of trading Okafor.

Despite claims of my stat nerdery, and no game watching assery, I've actually watched every single game of the Hinkie era, some multiple times. So I believe I'm pretty accurate in my assessment, which I think should be obvious at this point, that the Sixers are trying to take analytics/modern ball to an extreme level. Attack the rim and shoot threes almost exclusively; preferably in transition. Play aggressive defense with versatile defenders and switch everything;only allowing the very inefficient mid range shot. All while playing at a fast pace and preventing the opponent's transition opportunities to have an accelerated and controlled pace.

What I'm saying is, despite people saying that Brett Brown is a bad coach, he actually has a very smart and effective game plan in place if ran well and it has Hinkie all over it. So what I wanted to do is try to make a stat that quantified the performance of the players in his system.Over the course of the summer I took a basic computer course and we dealt with things like spreadsheets, and of course I based my final project on the Sixers. What I ended up with was BBSP, or Brett brown System Performance.

The stat:

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So before you even say, "Is this just another way to say Okafor sucks?", yes, yes it is. Now I hope we can all be adults and understand that Okafor was not a good player for the Sixers last year. However, performance isn't always indicative of ability either currently or projected. What frustrated me most about Okafor was that I for one and a big believer in his actual passing ability. Regardless of what the reason was for him not passing the ball, his incredibly low pass numbers considering his high usage really hampered the team.

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I'll explain the stat in a moment, but what I want to point out is that by putting Okafor's three point impact at the same level as Jerami Grant's, he would go from a negative to a positive player in this statistic. Which I'm sure he could've done that and more by trying to include his teammates more in the offense. In fact, changing Okafor's 3 point rate broke the stat because it would have a profound effect on the team performance as the leader in MPG and it wasn't recorded in the many variances in stats that would occur from a change in his play style. Even just applying the difference in his 3Pr to Nerlens' took him up several points.

So if you aren't into this nerd stuff you can skip the next two paragraphs down to the good stuff, but if you're interested I gathered the data for this stat from the 2-man averages of all of these players from their basketball-reference.com's 2015-2016 lineup pages. The columns highlighted in light blue are either formulas or stats not included in the 2-man numbers, but are included in BBSP. Defense Rate (Dr) is block +/- plus steal +/- multiplied by games played. 3 Point Rate (3Pr) is 3PA +/- plus, the amount of threes +/- with their overall impact on 3 point % applied, multiplied by number of games played. FBP is fast break points, PTO is points off turnovers. OFBP and OPTO are the opponent's points respectively. TSP and OTSP is the transition points scored while on the court, or (O)FBP+(O)PTO*GP. Finally, Transition Rate (Tr) is simply defensive rebounds +/- multiplied by games played.

So BBSP is basically individual performance squared, over team performance. Individual performance is squared to eliminate any redundant negatives or false positives; you can have a negative individual performance and still have a positive team impact which is what is being measured, and you can have a negative individual and team performance and it creates a false positive. For the record all players who have positive individual performance had positive team performance, and same for negative performances respectively. So the formula is:

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BBSP ADJ is the per-36 numbers, over 1000 to bring to a manageable scale so that I could apply grades for the players on a A-F, 4-0 scale.

Validating the stat:

Now I know the thought on everyone's mind at this point has to be, well how does this stat apply to the actual game? Well one cool that I realized that if you can construct a 5 man line up that grades as at least average BBSP ADJ, which is a C grade or simply 10+ combined BBSP ADJ, then that lineup's net rating will be positive. A B is needed to have a positive rating against a starting unit, and at least C for a bench unit. With the help on nbawowy.com, and Derek Bodner's great article on differences in lineups with Okafor and Noel, I was able to pin point several lineups with positive ratings.

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(graphic by Derek Bodner, http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/08/27/jahlil-okafor-lineups/)

Flaws with the stat:

In an era where we're moving closer and closer to positionless basketball, two roles stand out as pivotal and polarizing, playmaker and rim protector. One notion about the "modern NBA" is that most roles and players are interchangeable among several positions, but the two spots that have not changed much in their requirements are the point guard and center position. So, this is why although Canaan and McConnell ranks in the BBSP much better than Ish Smith, his playmaking is what makes these lineups work. In reality, Ish Smith was bad at a lot of things and was at his best and most consistent an average playmaker. Still, his playmaking made the difference. Canaan has a great 3 point impact, and despite his size makes a valiant effort on D and is only liable due to his size. However, his inability to run the offense is why you couldn't have him at the point. Unfortunately, you'd want at least 3 three point shooters for this system to work, and with no player able to be a playmaker and knock down the three point shot means that the system would never live up to what it could be.

So what does this have to do with the logjam?

I spent a good amount of time playing with the stat making sure that changes to certain numbers would reflect in the final stat, and overall just playing with some numbers trying to see how I could fix certain guys games, like Okafor's above. And after tinkering with the stat, and just recalling memories and going over game film, I think I have figured out a decent solution to the logjam, even if just temporary. I know after this past year this will sound crazy, but I believe if Noel and Okafor can give it another go the Sixers will be able to keep all their big men without having minutes affect their value.

Before I enter into the madness in my mind that would make me arrive to that point, I want to explain how it plays out minute wise. Of course the magic number we've all been referencing for months is 96, the amount of minutes available between the PF and the C. Of course if those 96 minutes were divided between just Noel, Okafor, and Embiid 33 minutes a piece would be more than enough. However, with Saric, Simmons, Covington, and Grant all being quality prospects and assumedly best suited for the PF, it get's a little messy.What gives up some wiggle room here is guys you want getting minutes in the front court other than the big 3 3 bigs have some positional versatility. So here's a couple ways it can shake out.

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So the first is the most likely scenario, even though it's my least favorite because it ends up with Grant becoming a perpuetual DNP. The last scenario opens up maximum versatility in the roster, and is also the least likely to happen. But first, I have to touch on the most important aspect of why the minutes seemingly fit now. All of these lineups assume that the Noel and Okafor pairing goes from a horrible -20 net rating, to a positive. In the best case scenario regarding Joel's health, he can be a nightly force at 5. In the meantime you can about evenly give Noel and Embiid 24 minutes a piece give or take depending on obvious circumstances. To me, this is already a win because you have 48 minutes of elite (finger crossed on Embiid) rim protection, no other team in the league can claim that. However, if Jahlil is best at C, giving the minutes to the two bigs can potentially ruin Okafor's value.

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According to this spreadsheet, Okafor at 5 without Noel is also a disaster for the most part. There are two very promising lineups with Okafor and Smith (F), Stauskas (B), Covington (B), and Grant (A) having a team high net rating of 34.2 in 36 minutes and another lineup swapping out Stauskas for Canaan (B) for a net rating of 17.7 in 16 minutes. Noel, on the other hand is a net positive in 6 possible lineups. This is a significant part of my analysis as it tackles two pretty strong narratives"

1) Okafor's teammates held him back. According to the stats so far, Okafor benefitted from players who played well in the system more than they held him back and

2) Noel, based on the data available is clearly better at C than Okafor.

When speaking of Embiid insurance, in reality we are talking about the center position. And, the notion that overpaying for Noel to be a backup is a bad thing is ridiculous for three reasons;

1) Embiid's foot didn't magically heal despite all this voodoo I've been trying out. We have no idea how it's going to play out and we need to have as many options as possible

2) We have no idea if Embiid or Noel can play together, this past season isn't indicative of any future pairings, including Noel and Okafor.

3) The aforementioned 48 minutes of rim protection, and my belief that Okafor needs to move to PF.

Something that should be obvious but is often stated, this past year isn't truly indicative of anything; not the ability of either the bigs or their teammates. A major reason being the chemistry and roles between Jahlil and Nerlens. To put it in perspective, Okafor who led the Sixers in MPG played almost half of his minutes with Noel, and the only 2 man lineup worse than their's at -20.3 was Okafor and Grant's at -21.7. The ineptitude of Okafor's pairing with two of the team's best players had a huge effect on the entire production of the team, and based on all the information so far does not correlate with their ability. I know it's easier said than done, but I believe that with some easy tweaks they could go from having a horrible impact in this system to having an elite one, especially if they are relegated to a bench role as a super duo.

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Here are the two's BBSP with their 2-man numbers changed from their team average of their top 10 20-man lineups minutes wise, to the Noel-Okafor front court -20.3 lineup. The lineup effectively ruins every single one of their rates except Transition Rate, where they were able to secure more defensive rebounds at -2.3 +/-, which would the best on the team of players over 1200 minutes (12 MPG). In a previous fanpost I went into why I think that the biggest issue amongst several when pairing Noel and Okafor was that they were playing the wrong positions for most of the year.BBSP, Derek's article, and every other medium of analysis on the subject has understandably cited the small sample size that is being studied. However, we can come to pretty good conclusions with even a minimal amount of data if we can apply direct context to it. If something is done once, it can be done again and again; what we are truly arguing is the consistency in which it takes place. The reason why that Okafor vs. KAT game gets posted again and again is because it is a true showing of his ability, even if it didn't translate to consistent performance. So, let's take a look at about 15 minutes of game film together and see what we can figure out about the pairing with Okafor at PF.

video coming soon

So, by simply switching Okafor and Noel's positions, a 2 man line up that went -20.3 for the year managed to zero out against a Western playoff team. Of course there's the disclaimer of the Clipper's being on the road on the end of a back to back, but that is immediately countered with the permanent Sixers disclaimer of playing against the Sixers. If they can work on what made that work in the brief period of time it did, it could be an answer, even if just temporary, for the logjam.

What about Ben at PG?

Didn't forget about that, and here's some bonus stuff about the subject which I hope will soon overpower the perpetual pissing contest between fans. I'll be blunt, I am 100% behind Ben Simmons being the PG in every sense of the word. Brett Brown has always been very clear that you are what you can defend, so to hear him say that Ben can possibly play point can only mean one thing, he believes that Simmons may be capable of guarding the PG full time and running the offense. In reality, the ability to do this would make him the most versatile player in the league. If Ben is able to be an NBA PG, it would:

1) Alleviate one of his biggest flaws, lack of shooting. With the ball constantly in his hands he would be a threat, especially in the pick and roll, and the space his passing would create would make up for his lack of space from shooting.

2) Allow for maximum shooting and spacing, with Ben at the point of attack it allows for the four to be a stretch and further open the paint for an assumed dangerous spread pick and roll game with Embiid/Noel/Okafor

3) Most importantly, if Ben is able to defend point guards it would mean that we wouldn't have to limit the 2 to a guard that is tasked with guarding the 1, thus making the opposing team have to play up to the Sixers. It's very likely the Sixers could end up with a starting 5 well above a 6'7 average height, mismatch galore.

So, the pressing issue is, can Ben guard PGs? Coach Thorpe believes so:

Two things jump off the screen when studying Simmons on defense: his incredibly quick hands and his equally impressive lateral foot speed. Simmons finished 32nd in the country in steals per game, and was No. 1 of any player taller than 6-5. His hand speed and overall hand-eye coordination give him an excellent weapon to defend drivers or big men who are not strong with the ball.

Simmons is very nimble and fluid when moving on defense, which hints at great potential on that end at the next level. As the league shifts to more switching on the perimeter, he will be one of the elite few who can not only "hold his own" in space against smaller players, but even excel when isolated -- a potential "defensive player of the year" talent.

Let's also take a quick look at some film:

video coming soon

Again, Terry Rozier isn't the best of the best of NBA point guards, but his speed with the ball is undeniable and really that is what you want to get a sense of; can he keep up with NBA speed? Based on this and other examples throughout his basketball career, you can give an optimistic yes to that.

In conclusion, with all the data available in regards to the Sixers' big men thanks to countless articles, and arguments we as fans deserve to have as nuanced and in depth understanding as possible. This is truly the taking off point of the organization and if a wrong move if made it could ruin all the bad good hat has happened. Unless he gets an amazer offer for any of our front court players, he should be going into this upcoming season with a let's see how this goes attitude. Fortunately, based off his recent spot on Woj's podcast we can only hope he is true to his words of patience.

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