FanPost

My Newest, Best-Worst Case Scenario (Keep the Bigs Edition)

My Newest, Best-Worst Case Scenario!!!

The ping pong balls conspire against us, no top free agent signs with us, and our trade offers for star players are rejected. What then?

No Simmons. No Ingram. No Jimmy Butler. No Paul George. No problem.

The reason I'm so enthused is because our quivver is so loaded with arrows that we can't miss in the long run, even if we get the 3rd or 4th pick in this June's NBA Draft.

Let's assume we can't pull off a trade for Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, Eric Bledsoe, Dennis Schroeder or anyone else significant.

Let's also assume we can't sign Kevin Durant, Nic Batum, Kent Bazemore, Evan Fournier, Demar Derozan, or Michael Conley. There are so many teams with between $40M-65M in cap space, that all of these guys will get maximum contract offers from multiple teams. A team like the Sixers (or Orlando, or Portland...) will have to offer the max to have any chance, and the "good" teams will have to match.

Folks expect the salary cap to go up by $10-20M again next year. So the average salaries given out this year will be enormous.

The Sixers have almost $60M in cap space, and have absolutely no reason not to offer maximum deals to the top guys. But the top guys won't accept them. Which means, the Sixers (and Orlando, and Portland...) are going to have to offer exorbitant contracts to so-called "glue" guys.

So, how do we accelerate the process with glue guys? How do we stick to the plan of trying to acquire and develop stars in the draft, at the same time we overpay free agents that can help balance our roster immediately? Aren't the two mutually exclusive?

Now, when I reveal who we're going to have to spend money on in a best-worst case situation, don't be all mad at me.

Iman Shumpert never averaged 10pts/gm with the Knicks, and got a 4yr/$40M contract extension...two years ago. He's as gluey as they come. Recent reports suggest that Festus Ezeli can expect $15-17M/yr this summer.

The Sixers have to spend $50M just to get to the salary floor. We're committed to "accelerating" the process. So we're going to vastly overpay whichever two or three guys we choose (or wind up with). Deal with it now. Avoid the rush.

....

Starting with the draft, I insist that the best worst case scenario is picking Jamal Murray with either the 3rd or 4th pick, then trading OKC and MIA to move up for Dejounte Murray. If Dejounte Murray is available at #24 when we use Miam's pick, then great. I doubt it, though.

The Murray Brothers are both 6'5 with terrific ballhandling skills. Jamal is the better shooter and scorer, while Dejounte is the more athletic defender and a more willing passer. Both are 19 years old, and have the highest upsides in this draft, in my opinion. Jamal & Dejounte fit nicely in front of our bevy of bigs.

Neither, however, is ready to step right into an NBA lineup and make it click. So we're back to spending $50M on guards and wings.

Remember, even if we don't bring back Kendall Marshall, Ish Smith, Isaiah Canaan or Elton Brand, three of those roster spots have just been filled by the Murray Brothers and Dario Saric.

Can't spend $50m on the one final roster spot, even if you wanted to.

Simply cutting Stauskas and Hollis Thompson is possible, but seems wasteful. Although, that'd make room for three veteran players.

Remember, also, I warned you that this is the best worst case scenario.

.....

In exchange for their first round pick this year & their rights to Sacramento's 2017 pick (top10 protected), the Sixers are going to give the Chicago Bulls $32M in cap relief, by taking on Derrick Rose's $21M AND Mike Dunleavy's $5M AND Taj Gibson's $9M. Rose's contract expires this year, while Gibson and Dunleavy's lasts until next summer.

We've talked about Rose, but we hadn't mentioned how much the Bulls need to get rid of 35 year old Dunleavy as well, if they're going to pare down their payroll for free agency. If the Bulls also rid themselves of Gibson, Chicago can keep Jimmy Butler and still have create enough space to sign Michael Conley and Dwight Howard.

We're talking a 2016-2017 lineup of Michael Conley, Jimmy Butler, Doug McDermott, Nik Mirotic & Dwight Howard, backed up by Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson, Justin Holiday and Tony Snell.

The Bulls can go after a free agent forward in 2017 when the salary cap goes up again.

Once they sign Michael Conley and Dwight Howard, the Bulls will be out of cap room and,therefore, could definitely use dudes like TJ, Hollis Thompson and/or Richaun to fill out the roster. They already need a backup point guard, a shooter and a rim-protector. We have all three on minimum salary deals.

[Of course I'd give them Stauskas and/or Landry in the deal if they wanted them. But returning either of those two may hinder Chicago's chances of landing Conley and Howard.]

How much are we charging for $23M in cap relief [$32M if we also take Gibson] along with two or three minimum salaried young players (TJ, Hollis & Richaun)?

The Bulls' 2016 pick (#14) and their rights to Sacramento's 2017 pick (top 10 protected)!!!

With Derrick Rose and Dunleavy on the squad, the Bulls have enough cap space to get Zaza Pachulia, probably. But which is scarier to face, Derrick Rose/Jimmy Butler/Zaza Pachulia, or, Michael Conley/Jimmy Butler/Dwight Howard???

Those draft picks are a meager price for the Bulls to pay. They're more valuable to us than they are to them. Maybe they score big with #14 pick in this year's draft. But its unlikely whoever they choose will be that impactful next year, if ever. As for Sacramento's pick, it converts to two second round picks on the decent chance the Kings make some improvements and get out of the top 10.

We're the ones on a slow growth path, the Bulls have a star they need to build around right now! We need those picks, Bulls don't.

......

Even though we'd get the #14 pick in this year's draft, I want this deal to bear fruit in 2017, because that draft class is pretty sick.

So we use Chicago's pick this year to take Dejounte Murray at #14. Then we trade OKC and MIA picks for a 2017 first round pick from a team without a 2016 draft pick, preferably a team who we anticipate will be on downswing). If we can't get a trade partner, we stash international players with OKC & MIA.

By taking on Rose, Dunleavy and possibly Gibson, the Sixers could add the Murray Brothers, three veterans, and have up to four first round draft picks in 2017, plus more cap space.

......

Believe it or not, adding $30M to our payroll in the Chicago deal gets us only to around $60M, leaving us with another $30M under the salary cap. The salary floor would be $81M, and we'd still be $21M under that--after adding Saric, the Murray Brothers (Dejounte & Jamal) and three veterans (Rose, Dunleavy, Gibson).

We don't have but one roster space left, and we still don't have a starting shooting guard. If we're not getting Kent Bazemore or Evan Fournier for that $21M, then who???

Well, if you didn't want Derrick Rose earlier, I'm really gonna piss you off now:

Our remaining cap space and starting shooting guard spot goes to ..... Philadelphia's own Dion Waiters!

Like the Eagles did with Carson Wentz, the Sixers are not buying his production on the court the last couple years. What we're 'overpaying' for is potential star power in two years.

Of the less than marquee free agents available, none have a higher upside that Waiters. Before taking a backseat to Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, Waiters was making a name for himself with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Rookies don't sport very good efficiency statistics, particularly ones that aren't gifted shooters. Somehow, Dion Waiters, after not even starting for his only two years at Syracuse, was immediately almost league average in terms of efficiency, despite being a poor shooter from three point and the free throw stripe.

His first two years in the league with the Cavs, Dion averaged 15pts in 29min/gm. That's around 18.5pts/36minutes, to go with 3rebounds and almost 4assists. He was traded to the Thunder, and most of his numbers have fallen off.

However, closer inspection reveals a guy who's had to learn to get joy from playing defense and also playing off the ball to contribute to a team hunting for a championship. Many thought Waiters would be a knucklehead in the League. However, he's gotten in no trouble on or off the court. He has his own Foundation doing work in the Philly area. And perhaps most important for the LB crowd, he hit .357 of his three pointers this year, including .383 from the corner.

Waiters is a volume scorer and is probably one of the rare players who may be more efficient the higher his usage rate. In Philadelphia, he can play off of Derrick Rose in the starting lineup, but also take the reins if you want to put Jamal Murray next to him when Rose is resting or rehabilitating.

Dion also has the frame you covet for fighting through pick and rolls, along with the muscle and athleticism to impede bigger players that switch on to him. He's 24 years old. He's healthy.

Not unimportantly, Waiters rocks Allen Iverson's #3pound jersey. Russell Westbrook is AI's favorite player in the League. I'll bet he's a fan of Waiters, too. And I'm betting Waiters would love to come back home and star for the Sixers. Waiters will average 20pts/gm here, easy, and sell a gazillion tickets.

Noone's claiming he's James Harden, but if you're looking for a sixth-man who's likely to increase his scoring dramatically once inserted into a starting lineup, if you're looking for a potential Alpha at the guard spot, our best bet may be offering Dion Waiters 4years, $80M, first two years guaranteed, team options last two years.

If Waiters becomes the real deal, $20M won't be all that much to pay in upcoming years. Consider that Derrick Rose is getting paid $21M right now.

If he doesn't become who we thought he would be, we would have the option to let him go or trade him after two years.

If he's not "The Answer", we have Dejounte Murray and Jamal Murray coming up behind him, and, thanks to the Rose deal, we'll have PHI17, LA17, SAC17 to get Dennis Smith, Lonzo Ball and/or DeAaroon Fox.

.............

Rose and Landry come off the books next summer. So with only $54-60M in payroll, we will also have $50M in cap space in 2017.

Do you know what that means?

We can extend Nerlens Noel this summer, because his raise doesn't come until next year, when we'll have $50M to absorb it and still go all out for Lilliard, Westbrook, Curry, etc. Assuming we don't get those guys, and assuming we draft a point guard in the 2017 draft, I think the guy we can realistically get, the guy that can improve our small forward position is Gordon Hayward.

Instead of trading Nerlens, we need to give him an extension this summer, so that he will be relatively cheap to keep (or trade) three or four years from now. Stopping offenses from scoring efficiently has to be as important as scoring efficiently. While Nerlens is not ideal against your mammoth centers, teams are relying on them less and less, and Nerlens can guard every other player on the floor with aplomb.

Plus, I don't care what anybody says, I can see slight improvements in Noel's coordination. Remember when he lost the rock on a beakaway all by himself. That was last year. This past year, we saw him dribble the rock baseline and reverse flush it.

His shooting numbers seem stagnant. But I like his form and his confidence while shooting.

Noel wants to be an offensive threat. He's just young and gangly. Hassan Whiteside did not arrive in the NBA because he was similarly slight of build. Until his body matured and he developed a jump shot, a three pointer no less, skinny-ass Jermaine Oneal was labeled a bust and the poster child for why kids should n't come out of high school. Tyson Chandler was taken #2, but bounced around until he became physically mature enough to anchor an NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks.

Lock him up with the same contract we just offered Dion Waiters, 4yrs/$80M, first two years guaranteed, team options for the last two years. As stated before, Nerlens' extension wouldn't kick in until 2017, when we would have over $50M+ to play with. I'd offer a maximum deal to Gordon Hayward, then draft Jayson Tatum (PHI), Edrice Adebayo (LA), and DeAaron Fox (SAC), then sign Joel Embiid to an extension as well.

.................

You'll notice that once we get to the end of the 2017-2018 season, once Dario and Tatum and the Murray brothers and everybody else gets busy, guys like Jerami Grant and Robert Covington start to slip to the second and third team. Then they become free agents.

As much as I love them, next summer is probably the time to trade one or both of them if they aren't going to be integral pieces of the future plan. If they are only going to be deep reserves, we probably should restock our store of draft picks by trading them next summer before they hit the last year of their Hinkie Specials.

November, 2016:

Derrick Rose, Dion Waiters, Robert Covington, Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor,

Jamal Murray, Dejounte Murray, Jerami Grant, Dario Saric, Nerlens Noel,

TJ Maxx, Nik Stauskas, Mike Dunleavy, Taj Gibson, Carl Landry.

November, 2017:

Dejounte Murray, Jamal Murray, Gordon Hayward, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid,

DeAaron Fox, Dion Waiters, Jayson Tatum, Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel

Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, Edrice Adebayo

November, 2018:

DeAaron Fox, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid

Dejounte Murray, Jamal Murray, Gordon Hayward, Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel

[Waiters, Covington, Grant traded for draft picks]

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