FanPost

How do Win Shares say the Sixers will do in 2014-15?

Since there's been a lot of speculation after the draft about how terrible the Sixers are going to be this year, I decided to take advantage of my numerical analysis background to put together a probable scenario for how the Sixers might look, given the current pieces. I'm using WS/48 from Basketball Reference

Notes:

  • Greater depth and more talent will generally help everyone on the squad equally for a tiny bump back to their historical values.
  • The model is conservative. It assumes that everyone plays 75 games, leaving space for injury/more win shares.
  • Nerlens Noel is projected to have a WS/48 similar to Andre Drummond, but slightly lower than the latter's rookie season- a promising big with some holes in his game.
  • Thaddeus Young is assumed to bounce back and perform at a level equal to his worst of the 2010-13 seasons
  • Jason Richardson is assumed to play at the level of his last full season, with the Orlando Magic
  • MCW is assumed to improve slightly (but still be very inefficient) from .026 WS/48 to .05
  • KJ McDaniels is projected as a WS/48 as slightly above average
  • Arselan Kazemi is projected at slightly below average
  • Jordan McRae projects to be in the last third of WS/48
  • Tony Wroten is assumed to improve slightly, and no longer provide negative Win Shares
Player POS Min/game Exp. WS/48 Exp. WS
Nerlens Noel C 30 0.17 7.96875
Jason Richardson SG 30 0.084 3.9375
MCW PG 30 0.05 2.34375
Henry Sims PF/C 20 0.128 4
Thaddeus Young SF/PF 30 0.136 6.375
KJ McDaniels SG/SF 30 0.1 4.6875
Tony Wroten PG 30 0 0
Arselan Kazemi PF 20 0.075 2.34375
Jordan McRae SG 20 0.05 1.5625
240
33.21875

So, as currently constructed, Win Shares pegs the Sixers at 33 wins. The projections seem very conservative to me, with our only potential over-estimation to be the Nerlens Noel/Andre Drummond comparison.

Below is a chart of potential salary dumps that we could absorb, who are simulated as generating conservative results relative to their historical performance.

Player POS Min/game Exp. WS/48 Exp. WS
Jeremy Lin PG/SG 30 0.1 5

Jeremy Lin would slot in to replace Tony Wroten in the lineup, essentially taking projected wins from slightly over 33 to slightly over 38, because advanced stats hate Tony Wroten.

Player POS Min/game Exp. WS/48 Exp. WS
Carlos Boozer PF 20 0.105 3.5

If we take Carlos Boozer, Boozer would probably take minutes from Kazemi & Sims, which would essentially make this trade a wash in terms of Win Shares.

So at the end of the day, what should we expect from the Sixers? It seems that they have a pretty good chance to end up in winning 30 or more games. If we end up taking Jeremy Lin in a salary dump, and/or some of our young players make some improvements in their games, we could end up chasing that 8th seed. And I, for one, would not be opposed to that outcome.

A user-created LB joint. The Liberty Ballers staff does not contribute to FanPosts.

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