There is no mistaking that Hinkie and Brown like guys that can shoot. But they also want guys that can defend at least a little bit. Nik Stauskas does one and not the other. To Hinkie, the economist, these players are available all day and he is going to try pick over the pool of shooters until he finds a guy that isn’t just the "3" guy, but also has the "D" to go with it. And you can be sure that at the 10 pick with several players with far higher ceilings available, Nik Stauskas is not going to walk across the stage to shake Adam Silver’s hand.If you in need of some easy analysis, like me, let’s just look at the 2 guards involved in the Sixers open tryout last season at the 2.
Below are the per40 college numbers of some familiar names. Nunnally and Elliot Williams are sophomore numbers and James Anderson's (James desperately needs a nickname…I just can’t call him James Anderson for forever and "Cadillac" is taken. Maybe we go Hyundai.) numbers are from his Junior year because sports-reference.com only has full stats starting that year.
|James Nunnally||2009-10||California-Santa Barbara||Big West||29||868||6.1||13.5||0.455||4||8.8||0.455||2.1||4.7||0.455||5.2||7.0||0.743||7.5||2.6||0.9||0.2||4.0||2.7||19.6|
|Nik Stauskas||2013-14||Michigan||Big Ten||36||1281||5.8||12.3||0.470||2.9||5.8||0.500||2.9||6.5||0.442||5.2||6.4||0.824||3.3||3.7||0.6||0.3||2.1||1.5||19.7|
|James Anderson||2009-10||Oklahoma State||Big 12||33||1124||8.0||17.6||0.457||5.4||9.9||0.549||2.6||7.7||0.341||7.4||9.2||0.810||6.8||2.8||1.6||0.7||2.8||3.1||26.2|
Sure, there are a few more turnovers and some more assist and rebounds across these comps, but this is generally the same mold of player except that Stauskas and Nunnally are defensively, and not coincidentally at all, athletically challenged. They all shoot a fairly high volume and do it efficiently.
The most telling stat above is that Nik Stauskas could only generate 0.6 steals/40 minutes. I spent some time on the same argument, but applied to Doug McDermott, here: http://www.libertyballers.com/2014/4/25/5654678/the-legend-of-doug-mcbucketts. It’s an absolute negative indicator of translation of defensive ability and athleticism to the NBA if a college player has a low steals output. Still, maybe if the steals number was disjointed with his athletic testing, we would have reason to believe that it’s not an issue, but for a player that includes in his weaknesses (http://www.nbadraft.net/players/nik-stauskas): "Lack of foot speed hurts defensively." We have found that the description and the performance match.
The important thing isn’t that you we consider the Sixers current SGs identical players to Stauskas. The important thing is that players in Nik Stauskas’ comparison range are generally available. All day, every day, you can find guys like that. So, Hinkie wouldn’t waste a pick on a player like Nik Stauskas.