I am not a scout and I definitely don't claim to have any unique knowledge about these prospects, but I do read a lot about these different players and how scouts seem to think they'll perform in the NBA.
Several folks have talked about tiers of prospects, and I think the reason for this is that some players have higher upside but with less certain probable outcomes. It is hard to weigh Embiid's upside vs Parker's expected immediate contribution.
In the graph below, I group the prospects into 3 tiers. I've also listed their probability to reach certain ceilings as an NBA player. This is my understanding of how scouts view their ceilings and probable performance, and I admittedly lean a lot on Draft Express and @chadfordinsider
The categories for the ceilings are:
- All-time Great = Hall of Fame candidate
- MVP Candidate = Being in the top 2 or 3 in voting for MVP
- All-NBA 1st - Make an All-NBA 1st team
- Multi-All-Star = Will make more than one All-Star team
- All-Star = Will make one All-Star team
- 2nd Option = The 2nd option for a playoff contending team
- 3rd Option = The 3rd option for a playoff contending team
- Starter = Start for an NBA team that is in playoff contention
- Role Player = Get consistent minutes in the NBA
- NBA Player - They make the league and stay for a while
These probabilities are just how I interpret the scouting reports I've read. Would love to hear comments on how others read the scouting reports.