FanPost

Thoughts on the 2015 Big Men

Hi everyone-

I recently moved to Philly from the middle of nowhere after I graduated school and, because I love basketball, decided to adopt the Sixers as my team instead of the fearsome Nobodies from Nowhere. I've been lurking here for a little bit, but decided to add some thoughts on the draft. Because dialogue is fun.

Anyone who looks at the top prospects this year will notice two things right off the bat:
1. The top 4 or 5 prospects are mostly big men
and
2. There are considerably more wings (3's) in this draft than there have been in recent years.

My goal is to eventually talk about both aspects, both of which I believe benefit the Sixers, but I want to focus on the big men right now because Jahlil Okafor, Karl Towns, and Kristaps Porzingis are currently in the top 4 of most mock drafts, and the Sixers are likely to pick near the top, and (probably) guaranteed to pick in the top 4. Behind those three, Myles Turner, Kevon Looney, and Chris McCullough, all are near or in Chad Ford's top 10, and Cliff Alexander and Willie Cauley-Stein are projected to be lottery picks, while Jakob Poeltl's draft stock is currently soaring. I wanted to take a moment to compare their stats a little more fully than has been done to this point.

Most posters here already know, but Per Game stats are obviously problematic because every player sees different amounts of game time. For instance, if we compare Okafor's and Towns's rebounding numbers, we can see that they both average 7 rebounds a game. Without thinking too much about it, one might see that Okafor's 7.6 is more than Towns's 7.1 and assume that he is a superior rebounder. Even if you noticed that Okafor plays more minutes than Towns, you might realize that Towns is a stronger rebounder, but assume that they're still relatively comparable. However, if you standardize their stats to account for the minutes played, it immediately becomes clear that Towns is a far superior rebounder to Okafor. He averages 15.1 rebounds per 40 minutes, while Okafor only averages 11.1. That's a considerable difference-- as much as one board per quarter. In order to standardize players' volume totals, I'm using only per 40min statistics in my comparison. Obviously, no stat is perfect, and there are plenty of other ways to tell who is having the best season, while scouting and determining actual skill set remains invaluable to prospect evaluation, but I think using these stats is hugely informative to the overall conversation.

Here are the player's per 40 minute averages so far this year:

Player Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Stocks FG% FT% 3Pt FG%

Jahlil Okafor 25 11.1 2.3 2.2 1.3 3.5 64.6 52 N/A
Karl-Anthony Towns 20 15.1 3 6 0.9 6.8 56.1 71.4 25
Myles Turner 24.3 14.7 2.1 6.2 0.9 7 50.9 85.3 30.8
Jakob Poeltl 25.5 20.4 0.2 6.4 1.5 7.9 73.8 47.8 N/A
Kevon Looney 18.3 14.5 2.3 2.5 1 3.5 47.6 67.2 16.7
Chris McCullough 16.7 10.2 1.6 2.8 2.2 5 57 54.5 1
Cliff Alexander 21.4 14.1 0.2 2.8 0 2.8 55.6 69.8 N/A
Willie Cauley-Stein 17.5 11.2 1.9 2.9 2.9 5.8 62.3 63 N/A
Joel Embiid 19.4 14 2.4 4.5 1.6 6.1 62.6 68.5 20
Nerlens Noel 13.2 11.9 2 5.5 2.6 8.2 59 52.9 N/A
Anthony Davis 17.7 13 1.6 5.8 1.7 7.5 62.3 70.9 15
Kristaps Porzingis 18.1 8.9 1.3 2.5 1.5 4 46.8 72.2 44.4

I've included Nerlens, Embiid, and Anthony Davis for comparison's sake. The "stock" metric is Bill Simmons' concept of combining blocks and steals to create one stat, which I find to be beneficial, especially for big men. Also, remember that Porzingis is the same age as the college freshmen, but his stats are coming against grown men in Spain's ACB, so while they may generally be weaker than the others', if you could adjust them for the level of the competition, he would probably match up a little more favorably. I'm not smart enough to do that, so we're stuck with this.

A couple of things stand out at first glance. The first is, "HOLY CRAP LOOK AT POELTL'S STATS," because they are absolutely insane. He's leading current, draft-eligible players in points, rebounds, and stocks, and it's not particularly close in any of the three categories. The second, to me, is surprise at Cauley-Stein's stats. I'd assumed that because of Kentucky's platoon system, all of their per minute stats would be incredible, and his are merely good in comparison with the others. The third is that no single player excels in all of these categories. Even Embiid and Davis, who were both consensus number one picks (until Embiid's injury dropped him to us), are middle of the pack in these categories. That just emphasizes the importance of scouting and context in looking at these players. Both of those players had tangible, visible skills that helped to set them apart, in addition to their statistical contributions.

The last thing that I noticed is that the three top American prospects (Okafor, Towns, Turner) merit their hype. All three have incredibly impressive numbers. In an effort to compare more effectively, I turned each of the biggest stats into a "leaderboard" of sorts. The current NBA player's are in bold.

POINTS

Points Leaders Player Points
1 Jakob Poeltl 25.5
2 Jahlil Okafor 25
3 Myles Turner 24.3
4 Cliff Alexander 21.4
5 Karl-Anthony Towns 20
6 Joel Embiid 19.4
7 Kevon Looney 18.3
8 Kristaps Porzingis 18.1
9 Anthony Davis 17.7
10 Willie Cauley-Stein 17.5
11 Chris McCullough 16.7
12 Nerlens Noel 13.2

REBOUNDS

Rebound Leaders Player Rebounds
1 Jakob Poeltl 20.4
2 Karl-Anthony Towns 15.1
3 Myles Turner 14.7
4 Kevon Looney 14.5
5 Cliff Alexander 14.1
6 Joel Embiid 14
7 Anthony Davis 13
8 Nerlens Noel 11.9
9 Willie Cauley-Stein 11.2
10 Jahlil Okafor 11.1
11 Chris McCullough 10.2
12 Kristaps Porazingis 8.9

STEALS & BLOCKS

Stocks Leaders

Player Stocks
1 Nerlens Noel 8.2
2 Jakob Poeltl 7.9
3 Anthony Davis 7.5
4 Myles Turner 7
5 Karl-Anthony Towns 6.8
6 Joel Embiid 6.1
7 Willie Cauley-Stein 5.8
8 Chris McCullough 5
9 Kristaps Porzingis 4
9 Jahlil Okafor 3.5
11 Kevon Looney 3.5
12 Cliff Alexander 2.8

ASSISTS

Assists Leaders Player Assists
1 Karl-Anthony Towns 3
2 Joel Embiid 2.4
3 Jahlil Okafor 2.3
4 Kevon Looney 2.3
5 Myles Turner 2.1
6 Nerlens Noel 2
7 Willie Cauley-Stein 1.9
8 Anthony Davis 1.6
9 Chris McCullough 1.6
10 Kristaps Porzingis 1.3
11 Jake Poeltl 0.2
12 Cliff Alexander 0.2

A quick note on current Sixers' players: Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid were REALLY good in college. Nerlens' defensive presence is completely unmatched by anyone else there. Even Davis's numbers don't come close to his blocks and steals stats. He may not be blowing us away at this point in the season, but giving up on him soon would be a huge mistake. You don't find big men with his sort of defensive presence almost ever. Davis is a one-man wrecking ball for the Pelicans right now, and Noel was perceptibly better in their corresponding college years. As for Embiid, the thing that I'm most excited for about having him as our franchise building block is his passing ability. His assist rate is elite among these players. He's going to be so great at so many different aspects of the game, but his teammates are going to love him for his ability to keep them involved and kick it out when he is double teamed.

Here are my thoughts about the current prospects:

Jahlil Okafor- He is the current consensus number one because of his low post offense, and it is clear that his scoring rate is elite. His array of post-moves is truly unparalleled by any recent prospect, and he will come in and be an immediate impact player. I think comparisons to Al Jefferson are remarkably apt and that he is a sure thing to reach at least a few All-Star games. Almost as important is his passing ability. Having watched quite a few Duke games this season, his passing skills have been evident quite readily, but it's clear from his assist rate that he does deserve that reputation as well. However, it's clear that his secondary skills, while still strong, do not currently match his offensive repertoire, and, as the Sixers, I would find that worrisome to his overall potential.

He is one of the weakest rebounders in this group, and, while he certainly deters shooters at the rim and provides strong defensive effort, it's not clear that he will ever be a defensive stalwart in the NBA. Add in his relative (in comparison to NBA athletes) lack of athleticism, and the door props open for others to potentially be picked above him. If I were the Sixers, I not only would worry about his ability to fit next to Embiid (who I believe has a higher ceiling), but I also don't think he is the best player available, even if we were hypothetically picking first. That honor goes to...

Karl Towns- I really hope that his lack of playing time at Kentucky allows him to remain behind Okafor and Mudiay on most teams' boards so that he can drop to the Sixers wherever we end up. Towns has three absolutely elite abilities right now: rebounding, passing, and shot blocking. No one else combines any of the aspects of the game at the level that he does for those three. He is top five in all four of these categories, and this includes the current front runner for MVP in the NBA. He is a better athlete than Okafor and already makes a larger difference on the defensive end than Okafor does. He doesn't possess Okafor's arsenal of moves, but he does have a stronger set of alternative skills. His potential as a shooter and passer raise his ceiling above Okafor's. Even without having figured out his entire offensive game, he still averages 20 points per 40 minutes-- better than Davis or Embiid did at that age.

I also believe that his skill set is different enough from Embiid's that the two could actually complement each other effectively and be paired together in starting lineups for years to come. To me, Towns not only fits as BPA, but he also fits into the team naturally. Between his and Embiid's passing and rim protection, we could become an even better version of what the Grizzlies have now.

Myles Turner- His stats really impressed me. I have seen very little of him since watching the McDonald's All-American game, where he held his own against Okafor but didn't wow me. That said, his potential really is scary. He has a great shooting touch already and has a great IQ and mature attitude. I didn't expect his per minute stats to be as far as they are at this point. He and Towns were the only two players who were in the Top 5 in all three categories. A lot of people think he's not ready for the NBA yet and there's a chance that he remains at school for another year. I don't think that's even remotely possible. You don't flash the skill set that he has shown this year and not get picked in the top 10 by somebody. He provides rim protection, shooting and spacing, impressive rebounding, and better passing than I expected. He may not have the skills that the two guys above him do, but he does have NBA-ready abilities.

The big issue with Turner is one that doesn't show up in these stats-- he averages almost 6 fouls per 40 minutes. His strength is obviously an issue for him at this point, and as he gets stronger it may help him to stop fouling. Those are the two things that make him last ready for the jump, but he does so much else at such a high level that it shouldn't matter yet. That said, I do think he's below Okafor and Towns. His ceiling may be higher than Okafor's, but not by much, and there is some risk that he won't be able to cope with the physicality at the next level. But if I'm picking anywhere after the first three, I would give him a hard look.

Kevon Looney- When I saw Poeltl's stats, I was so surprised that I thought it might have something to do with the level of his competition. I don't know the personnel of the school's he's played against well enough to say definitively whether or not it does, but it didn't seem to. When I checked team's SOS at this point of the season, Utah was behind most of the teams other prospects play for, but not horrifically so, at 65. What surprised me, though, was UCLA. Looney's competition has been a horrific 237th toughest so far. If there is anyone among these players for whom this production should be taken with a grain of salt, it's him.

Looney doesn't quite fit in with many of these players as he's been a tweener who only recently seemed to solidify his place as a 4 instead of a 3. His stats have been incredibly impressive so far, but taken on a per minute basis, they aren't as good as I had originally thought. Rebounding is his strongest asset, and it really is elite. Given his history as more of a 3, and his comfort with the ball in his hands from a farther distance out, his strong assist rate shouldn't be a surprise either. What would worry me for the next level is whether or not he could find ways to score beyond simple putbacks and dunks. He's a power forward, not a center, so his weakness on defense might not be as large of an issue as some of the others' on here, but he seems a solid step below the top 3. His face up game and athleticism are going to be where his value come from, but without any semblance of a jump shot, it will be harder to make that work at the next level.

It sounds like I just ripped him to shreds, but I actually like Looney a lot. He has incredible athleticism, is very smooth with and without the ball, and could very well become and All-Star player. He's just farther away from that than the top 3 bigs.

Kristaps Porzingis- Unfortunately, this exercise is the least illuminating for him. The competition is discernibly higher in the Spanish League than the NCAA, so his weaker statistical showing isn't terribly significant because we can't account for that discrepancy. In his favor, his points numbers are strong, and that's really where his value will lie. GM's and coaches really care about two numbers when it comes to Porzingis. The first is 6' 11", and the second is 44%. The potential that he might be the next Dirk is what intrigues everyone most about him. Personally, I have no idea what to make of him.

He is so thin that it is doubtful he could bang with any NBA 4's or 5's, and his frame makes it unclear whether or not that will ever change. His production is strong given the amount of time he's receiving playing for Sevilla, but it's always tougher to judge those without more data from which you can judge. To me, his rebounding, blocking, and passing numbers are weak enough to give me pause and wonder whether he can truly cut it in the NBA. But the possibility of becoming a young Dirk are actually possible, and I don't see how GM's can pass it up. Personally, I would not want to take a chance on him if I could have Turner instead, but I don't see any way he drops below 4.

That's it for the top 5 prospects. This was much longer than I expected and/or intended for it to be, so I'm going to wrap it up right now. However, I'm planning on returning to talk about Poeltl, Cauley-Stein, McCullough, and Alexander by the end of the week, so hopefully people will enjoy this. I do think this is quite informative on those 4 players, so I definitely want to write more soon. Hopefully people will actually read this. It's not often that someone drops a 2700 word, unsolicited undertaking onto a forum. So I apologize for that.

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