FanPost

Thoughts on the 2015 Wings

(FAIR WARNING-- THIS IS LONG.)

NBA teams hate bidding on restricted free agents. Each summer, there are a finite number of impact free agents, and each team has a finite number of resources with which to sign them. When an RFA signs an offer sheet with a new team, his current club has three days to match the offer, during which the potential team’s cap is tied up in the restricted free agent’s contract. The NBA moves at a breakneck pace, and a lot can happen in three days. If the player’s current team matches the offer, suitors’ money can be tied up for nothing, and Plans B-D may have come off the market already.

Which is to say, if teams can fulfill their needs through alternative routes—unrestricted free agents, trades, etc.—they will try their best to do so. In related news, Gordon Hayward was a restricted free agent this summer, and the Charlotte Hornets offered him a $63 million max contract, tying up nearly $15 million in cap holds while they waited for the Jazz to match the offer. The Hornets are a team that had been so bad for so long that after last year’s surprise playoff run, they want to maintain the good vibes and build a team that can aim towards contention now. Gambling on a young wing player was the best way to do that, and they saw fit to give Hayward a contract of nearly $16 million per year for his services. They determined that in the current climate, given the market for players of Hayward’s ilk, it was worth losing those three days of flexibility if it gave them a good shot at him.

The Jazz matched the terms, rendering the gambit futile and the Hornets turned to their backup plan, signing Lance Stephenson to $27 million over three years.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Dallas saw fit to give Chandler Parsons a 3-year, $45 million contract that Daryl Morey famously dubbed the least-tradable contract imaginable. Kawhi Leonard is expected to sign for the max at season’s end, and Jimmy Butler’s strong play thus far has pundits raving that he surely deserves a max contract as well. Most basketball analysts would agree that these are fair contracts vis-à-vis the value that these players offer.

Hayward, Parsons, Leonard, and Butler are all nice players and can contribute to championship contenders. But none of them were the type of All-Star wings of the 2000’s who dominated the game. They don’t begin to approach the offensive proficiency of Kobe or T-Mac, or even Joe Johnson from his Atlanta days. Last year, none of them averaged more than 16 points per game, and only Hayward could call himself a first option on offense, and his efficiency plummeted as he played for an offensively challenged Jazz team.

Basically, wing-play is at a premium right now. James Harden and Klay Thompson are the consensus top shooting guards in the league, followed by the perpetually injured/resting Dwyane Wade, and then a large drop to the next group. LeBron, Durant, and Carmelo lead the small forward pack, but all three have become more of hybrids between a 3 and a 4 rather than strictly sticking to the 3. Leonard and Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan are the only other wings that made ESPN’s (admittedly subjective) top 35 in #NBARank.

There are plenty of point guards, power forwards, and centers at the top of the NBA’s hierarchy, but wing players have quietly moved to the periphery in the last decade. In a world in which success can come from plumbing the market for inefficiencies and finding approaches that others have missed, cheap, quality wings have become coveted. A major reason for this has been the dearth of young wing talent coming into the NBA the last few years. Here is the list of players who were 20 years or younger at the time of the draft, weren’t tweeners trying to sell themselves as 3’s, and were projected to be in Chad Ford’s top 15 before the draft:

2014—Andrew Wiggins, James Young
2013—Otto Porter, Giannis Antetokounmpo
2012—Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Harrison Barnes
2011—Kawhi Leonard, (Klay Thompson)
2010—Paul George, Gordon Hayward
2009—DeMar DeRozan

That’s it. An average of 1.7 young wing players were talented enough for the lottery over the last six years. For comparison’s sake, there were an average of 3.3 power forwards and 2.7 point guards who fit the same criteria over that amount of time. 2009 saw six point guards rated highly, and last year had four power forwards. There has been no such year for wings. You’ll also notice that there’s been an inordinate amount of success among the wing players in that list. Only George and Kawhi have become true stars, while the jury is still out on Young, Wiggins, Porter, and MKG, but all of them have turned themselves into serviceable NBA players who can fulfill important needs on many teams.

I mention this because there are currently 5 prospects on Chad Ford’s board who fit the same description as those listed above. In an environment in which productive wings are the most sought-after commodities on the market and rookie contracts are by far the most valuable asset a team can hold, this draft is irresistible to teams that have holes on the wing. Like the Sixers.

There are currently eight prospects listed in Ford’s Top 30. Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja, and Stanley Johnson are all in his Top 10, while Kelly Oubre is in the low lottery and Caris LeVert sits just outside it. Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Justin Jackson fill out the eight prospects. Given what the Sixers currently hold in draft picks (their own plus the Heat’s), the top four prospects aren’t quite of the quality to grab them with our first pick, while the second four could fit nicely into that Heat pick. That said, I think most of us can agree that with Hinkie’s penchant for draft maneuvering and the Sixers’ ability to take on assets and contracts as a third party in a trade, we could end up doing any number of things—trading down from our spot to grab Winslow/Johnson plus future picks, trading up from the Heat spot to do the same, flipping assets to Phoenix for a pick that might end up in the 12-15 range, etc. There are tons of options and possibilities for using this draft to help address the most glaring hole in our roster.

As with previous pieces, I’ve standardized stats to be per 40 minutes rather than per game and compiled "leaderboards" for these players so that we can more readily see how they fit within each category. For recently drafted comparisons I’ve added Andrew Wiggins and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to the group, along with KJ for that bit of Sixer relevancy. Spoiler alert: KJ had insane block stats in college. I think we can all be shocked by that. (Update: I’ve since included D’Angelo Russell and RJ Hunter as well).

I used mostly the same stats as for the big men. Combining steals and blocks (stocks) remains useful for big perimeter players, although you would expect the ratio to shift from what the big men achieved. The only difference is that I’ve now added a leaderboard for 3-point shooting percentage as well. "Threes and D" players are all the rage right now, so if we’re going to look at these players’ potential to become that archetype, shooting and spacing become paramount. Numbers are current through Saturday’s (12/13) games. I don’t believe anyone played on Sunday, but also didn’t bother to check. Current NBA players are in bold.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals Stocks FG% FT% 3Pt FG%
Justise Winslow 18.5 7.1 3.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 45.6 60 38.5
Mario Hezonja 14.1 5.4 3.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 48.3 69.2 35.7
Stanley Johnson 20.4 9.4 2.3 0.7 2.3 3 50.6 70.2 39.3
Caris LeVert 18.5 5.8 4.3 0.3 2.3 2.7 43.7 83.3 48.1
Kelly Oubre 13.5 8.7 1.6 0 1.6 1.6 34.8 85.7 37.5
Sam Dekker 19.2 6.5 2.4 0.5 0.5 1 53.3 71 35.7
Rondae Hollis Jefferson 18.9 10.2 2.7 1.5 1.1 2.6 57.7 74.5 33.3
Justin Jackson 16.4 5.1 3.5 1 1.7 2.7 45.3 78.9 20
Andrew Wiggins 20.9 7.2 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.7 44.8 77.5 34.1
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 12.6 9.7 2.9 1.3 1.6 2.9 42.4 74.3 12.5
KJ McDaniels 20.3 8.4 1.9 3.3 1.3 4.6 45.9 84.2 30.4
D'Angelo Russell 23.1 6.1 7 0.1 2.3 2.5 47.5 82.1 43.5
RJ Hunter 26.3 4.1 2 0.5 2.8 3.3 45.4 77.8 35.6

I apologize for Hollis-Jefferson's line. I couldn't figure out how to fix it in this view.

POINTS

Points Leaders Player Points
1 RJ Hunter 26.3
2 D'Angelo Russell 23.1
3 Andrew Wiggins 20.9
4 Stanley Johnson 20.4
5 KJ McDaniels 20.3
6 Sam Dekker 19.2
7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 18.9
8 Caris LeVert 18.5
9 Justise Winslow 18.5
10 Justin Jackson 16.4
11 Mario Hezonja 14.1
12 Kelly Oubre 13.5
13 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 12.6

REBOUNDS

Rebounds Leaders Player Rebounds
1 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 10.2
2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 9.7
3 Stanley Johnson 9.4
4 Kelly Oubre 8.7
5 KJ McDaniels 8.4
6 Andrew Wiggins 7.2
7 Justise Winslow 7.1
8 Sam Dekker 6.5
9 D'Angelo Russell 6.1
10 Caris LeVert 5.8
11 Mario Hezonja 5.4
12 Justin Jackson 5.1
13 RJ Hunter 4.1

ASSISTS

Assists Leaders Player Assists
1 D'Angelo Russell 7
2 Caris LeVert 4.3
3 Mario Hezonja 3.6
4 Justin Jackson 3.5
5 Justise Winlow 3.2
6 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2.9
7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 2.7
8 Sam Dekker 2.4
9 Stanley Johnson 2.3
10 RJ Hunter 2
11 KJ McDaniels 1.9
12 Andrew Wiggins 1.8
13 Kelly Oubre 1.6

STEALS & BLOCKS

Stocks Leaders Player Stocks
1 KJ McDaniels 4.6
2 RJ Hunter 3.3
3 Stanley Johnson 3
4 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 2.9
5 Caris LeVert 2.7
5 Justin Jackson 2.7
5 Andrew Wiggins 2.7
8 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 2.6
9 D'Angelo Russell 2.5
10 Justise Winslow 2.3
10 Mario Hezonja 2.3
12 Kelly Oubre 1.6
13 Sam Dekker 1

3-PT SHOOTING

3Pt Leaders Player 3Pt FG%
1 Caris LeVert 48.1
2 D'Angelo Russell 43.5
2 Stanley Johnson 39.3
4 Justise Winslow 38.5
5 Kelly Oubre 37.5
6 Mario Hezonja 35.7
6 Sam Dekker 35.7
8 RJ Hunter 35.6
9 Andrew Wiggins 34.1
10 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson 33.3
11 KJ McDaniels 30.4
12 Justin Jackson 20
13 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 12.5

A couple of quick notes on these stats before continuing. The first is something I should have mentioned last week but didn’t—all of these are coming on small sample sizes. Sam Dekker played two games since I first put these together and rose from the bottom half of each of these leaderboards to more than respectable in all of them. Justise Winslow hasn’t played in 12 days and dropped from the second leading current scorer to 9th overall. There’s a lot of volatility at the moment.

Second, now that I’ve included the two SG’s, we’re comparing mostly apples to two oranges. With only the 3’s included, Stocks had a higher block to steal ratio; Russell and Hunter are both the reverse. Where off-the-dribble ability is a big positive for young 3’s, it’s more of an expectation for young 2’s. Other issues are similarly impacted here and there. So these boards shouldn’t be taken to mean one is strictly better than another. Hopefully I’ll cover that successfully in my wrap of each of the players.

Like last week, the players are listed in the order that they currently stand on Chad Ford’s Big Board.

Justise Winslow—As I mentioned above, Winslow suddenly looks much more pedestrian merely by virtue of having not played. Duke never schedules games during their exam period, so the last time Winslow took the court was against Wisconsin 12 days ago (Full disclosure: My father went to Duke and my first sports memory was losing to Khaled El-Amin and co. in the national championship. I am a Duke fan and have watched more of them because of it). Luckily, Winslow’s numbers remain very good, in spite of his slide down the boards. He’s in a tight grouping of 3’s who score 18-20 points per 40 minutes, meaning that he is capable of contributing on the offensive end, and the rest of his stats are solid, if unspectacular.

Winslow has a reputation of being similar to MKG in that he has great intangibles and works hard at the little things. While I would agree that Winslow plays with great heart and attitude, the numbers don’t quite back it up. MKG’s rebounding was elite; Winslow’s is good. He plays tough defense, but isn’t the lockdown player that MKG was and is as well.

The two biggest positives for Winslow thus far this season have been his shooting and his athleticism. He came into the season with a reputation as a poor shooter, and has mostly disproven it. He’s the fourth best 3-point shooter by percentage among all of these players. Most of his 3-pointers have come off of catch and shoot situations (Duke has always been good at kicking the ball on drives), but he has at the very least proven himself capable in that regard. In all honesty, I worry that it was a hot streak that will prove to be a mirage as the season continues, but so far so good. If anyone out there has more scouting experience than I do, please correct me, but it looks to me as if he palms the ball a little too much as he shoots it, causing it to roll along his hand before reaching his fingertips, which leads me to believe that he will go through multiple cold stretches as the season goes on.

As for his athleticism, he’s the most explosive player that I’ve seen here (I have not watched Mario). He only made two field goals against Wisconsin, but his second came off a sideline out of bounds play late in the game, and his eruption towards the hoop and past his defender made me catch my breath. He is the only one of these prospect who can make a play like that, and it’s why many scouts think he has a higher ceiling than the rest of them.

Stanley Johnson—My favorite of this group. He came out of the gates sluggishly but has turned it on a bit more recently. He was the best player on the floor for large portions of the game against Michigan this Saturday. Johnson’s improvement has propelled him to be in the top 5 of almost every category, with assists as the only exception. He has improved his scoring each of the last couple of games to become the leading scorer among the small forwards. His size and strength have allowed him to rack up rebounds and blocks, and, like Winslow, his shooting has impressed recently.

Ford has mentioned that his defense needs improvement, but much of that seems to stem from a desire to do it all on the defensive end. He will often leave his man to double unnecessarily in the post, and then get beaten off the dribble as he tries to recover following his negligence. He consistently close out on shooters in a great stance and doesn’t get beaten if he’s actually in position at the start of a drive. The problem is in help principles and actually being in position, something that most every young player struggles with. I think worries over Johnson’s defense are overstated. Are there issues at the moment? Yes. Are they likely to be fixed as he becomes a more diligent player? Yes.

Johnson and Winslow are incredibly similar players. They both play hard on every possession, are physically developed beyond what you would expect out of a freshman, and contribute without needing the ball in their hands. Both need to develop off the dribble skills and work on shooting, but their athleticism and work ethic can only lead you to believe that they will develop into strong NBA contributors. Winslow has received a lot of praise coming out of the gate, and has risen from 15th on Ford’s Big Board to 6th. Johnson, meanwhile, has dropped to 9th—which has puzzled me thus far.

In catch and shoot situations, Johnson has become a strong scorer. It was everyone’s biggest concern coming into the year, and he’s shot incredibly well at almost 40% from three. The biggest difference between the Johnson and Winslow is that Johnson’s post-game is already a strength. Johnson has an extra inch and 20 pounds on Winslow, and has learned how to leverage that into scoring opportunities. I don’t know that Winslow will ever be able to pound teams on the block as effectively as Johnson does already. Johnson’s scoring, shooting, rebounding, and defensive stats are all above Winslow’s right now, and he looks to be the better bet at the moment to me.

In any case, these are the top two prospects at the moment, and they deserve to be. I think both would be phenomenal pickups for the Sixers, and not just because they play a position that needs strengthening. Derek Bodner wrote a piece two weeks ago in which he quoted Brett Brown and Gregg Popovich as extolling the value of player mentality. Popovich said, "We do do our work as far as character is concerned. Bringing in the kind of kids that we think have the fiber to want to work every day, that can be coached, that don’t mind being criticized, and want to learn… There’s nothing new [in basketball]. The people that compete the best and execute the best, at both ends of the floor for more of the 48 minutes—they win."

To me, Johnson and Winslow both embody that attitude and that culture, and fit exactly into what Hinkie and Brown are trying to build. They may not have the skills yet, but they want to work to be able to develop them. Brown made his career and developing players like that and is trying to further it through the same process now. Bring them in, Hinkie!

Mario Hezonja—Similar to Porzingis in last week’s edition, it’s important to remember that Hezonja’s stats are coming against tangibly stronger competition than what the Americans face. Unfortunately, that means they can’t really tell us all that much. He’s in the bottom three in points, rebounds, and stocks, but if each of those numbers were increased by a quarter of his current production (an arbitrary number), he would be right in the middle of the pack in each case. Unfortunately, there is no way to quantify the difference in competition between the two leagues, so we’ll just have to take his numbers with a grain of salt.

The thing that stands out the most about Hezonja is his assist rate. He has a reputation as difficult to play with, selfish. But here he rates as the third best passer among these prospects. In fact, if level of competition is taken into account, he may be in LeVert’s league as a passer, well beyond the other 3’s. If I were a GM, I would be very encouraged by this. His shooting is also strong, which is something the Sixers desperately need. Everything else, as I’ve mentioned is very weak in comparison to the Americans.

It’s unfortunate that he’s likely to see much of an increase in playing time this year. Barcelona’s squad (from what I’m told) is deep and strong enough that they don’t really have any incentive to play him. His per minute numbers are solid, if unexceptional, so any team that ends up picking him will be choosing purely on potential. He may end up fulfilling it, he may not.

D’Angelo Russell—The first shooting guard swingman in the draft! Russell can clearly score. 23 points per 40 minutes is no joke; among all players (including bigs) that I’ve looked at so far, that would put him 5th overall. His passing is also very impressive. Russell’s stock was decent coming into the season, but his assist numbers and the potential that he may be able to play a little bit of point guard are what has helped him climb into the lottery right now. He also rebounds quite well for a guard. He’s in the lowest third of these players, but he’s also the second shortest among them at 6' 5". 6 boards per 40 minutes is nothing to thumb your nose at for a shooting guard.

Most people knew that he would have a real chance to put up numbers at Ohio State, as the Buckeyes were in desperate need of scoring from somewhere. He has answered the call emphatically so far. But volume scoring doesn’t necessarily make a great player. Luckily for Russell, it seems as though he is not only capable of scoring, but capable of scoring efficiently. His 3-pt shooting is quite strong—he and LeVert have easily separated themselves as the best of this group so far. His overall shooting percentage hovers around the middle of the pack, and he shoots 50% on his two point attempts, which is relatively strong for a guard. I don’t know how to find stats on where his attempts come from or how to classify a difference between spot up attempts and off the dribble shots, but Russell seems solid overall.

I haven’t seen a full game of Russell yet, but from highlights of single games, it looks like he is cognizant of the impact his shooting ability has on the rest of his game. He is adept at pump-faking an on-rushing defender and then gliding by and getting all the way to the hoop. Again, without better numbers, I can’t say for certain, but it looks like he has a capable floater from the middle of the lane as well as the ability to get all the way to the hoop. He’s not an athlete on Mudiay’s level, but he’s strong and capable.

If the Sixers were able to flip the Heat pick and another asset into a pick in the 8-12 range, Russell would be intriguing. He certainly adds an attribute that the team sorely lacks, and a shooter on his level could be a godsend for MCW and the bigs next year. Russell and MCW is an intriguing backcourt that could become dynamite as they age. If Johnson, Winslow, Hezonja, and Russell were all available at the same pick, I think the decision would need to be based on how management (and Coach Brown) see KJ’s future. If they think he can hold his own as a SF, then perhaps Russell is a better pick. If they really see him as a starting 2 down the line, then you take a bigger player who can develop his perimeter game more as he ages.

Kelly Oubre—Big news, everyone: Kelly Oubre has actually started to look like a real, live college basketball player. After averaging 9 minutes a game through his first seven, he’s played 16 and 17 in his last two and looked much more capable in each. He’s still lagging far behind Winslow, Johnson, and Hezonja, but we’ll see if he can start breaking out a little bit more.

The allure of Oubre lies in his physical gifts. He is 6’7" with a 7’2" wingspan (Winslow’s is 6’10" for comparison) and a great athlete. He was known as a good shooter in high school, meaning that he could develop into the archetype of the "3 and D" wing. Although he hadn’t truly shown it yet, with a reach like his, he had the capability to become an elite wing defender. Of course, then he arrived at Kansas and looked completely lost in the few minutes that he actually got on the court, and the buzz died pretty quickly.

The numbers confirm what our eyes had already told us—Oubre has struggled in college, and struggled quite a lot. He is in the bottom two in three categories, including key offensive and defensive ones, the two areas in which he was expected to excel. Remarkably, in spite of his amazing length, Oubre hasn’t recorded a single block yet this season.

What stands at as a positive for Oubre is his rebounding, and it highlights just why scouts had him pegged as a Top 5 pick before the season. Even in limited action this season, Oubre’s rebounding rate places him at 4th, and ahead of Winslow and McDaniels, both of whom were/are known for being strong rebounders. Oubre’s fundamentals aren’t even necessarily that strong (I watched the KU-Utah game and he missed several box outs)—he’s just longer and more athletic than those around him.

The one thing that has not disappointed so far is Oubre’s shooting. He’s sitting at a good, but not outstanding 37.5%.

Bill Self is a good coach; despite people’s frustration at how he uses his wings, he turned Embiid from a vague quandary of "if’s" into a consensus number one pick. If he can get Oubre to commit more to the basic principles and if Oubre finds his scoring ability, he’ll be right back in the mix at the end of the season.

RJ Hunter—The first upperclassmen of these prospects, Hunter’s stats tell us that he can score. And when I say "He can score," what I really mean is, "He can shoot." His 3-pt shooting percentage only places him 8th among these prospects, but the way in which he has managed to shoot 35% is much more impressive than any of the players above him. If you watch highlights of Hunter (like this Oakland game), his points come off of step back, off the dribble, fade-aways, often from NBA range. He reminds me a lot of Steph Curry when he played for Davidson, both because of his shooting touch and the lack of playing for a prestige school. He’s not as athletic as Curry and lacks his handle, but the similarities are there. Hunter is taller, at 6’ 6", and should almost certainly be able to get his shot off in the NBA.

While he is an absolutely prolific scorer at the moment (seriously, he’s averaging 27/game over his last four games), Hunter’s rebounding and passing are relatively weak. Some of that is to be expected, especially since he plays so far beyond the 3-point line for much of the game, but it’s not a non-issue.

An interesting point on Hunter is that he actually ranks second behind KJ in the "stocks" category, and first of the ten current prospects. However, while every small forward averages more blocks than steals, Hunter ranks so high because of his steal rate, indicating that he is a very good defender at the moment.

Hunter lacks the athleticism and playmaking to be a truly great NBA player, but his shooting and height almost guarantee that he’ll be a useful one. He has range for days and provides good defense, even if he will never be a great shot deterrent. If he’s still there for the Sixers’ second pick, expect Hinkie to give him a hard look.

Caris LeVert—The best passer and shooter among all of the small forwards, and it’s not close. I expect Hinkie to try to move the Heat pick in order to get a second top 10 pick, but if he is unable to, expect him take take Caris LeVert at 16/17. And we should be very excited about that.

When I put together these stats for the first time last week, LeVert was shooting 50% from three on the season. It’s dropped since then, but is still truly outstanding. What’s more, he has acted as Michigan’s number one option on offense, so many of his shots are off the dribble, rather than simply catch and shoot situations. If you plugged him into Hollis Thompson’s spot right now, he would contribute in a big way to our offense.

LeVert’s not the best athlete among this group, and therefore doesn’t have the ceiling that the top picks do, but he’s serviceable, and he has a quick first step and good handle that allows him to penetrate and get into the lane. He has some difficulty getting to the rim, especially against Arizona’s length, but he has great vision, and can kick it out to any shooter waiting. He made a couple of passes that many small forwards just don’t see in that game, and if he had better teammates, he would likely be averaging more than 5 assists per 40 minutes.

As far as scoring is concerned, he was leading this group averaging more than 21 points per 40 minutes when I first compiled the stats. Since then, he’s had two rough outings and dropped to 8th. But he’s still even with Winslow, and he is capable of putting it in the hoop in a couple different ways.

The worry with LeVert is his defense, and it’s because he has yet to put on the weight that many of his peers have. But his fundamentals are strong and he slides well with opposing players. His rebounding highlights that weakness. His 5.8 per 40 minutes are considerably below most of the other small forwards.

The last bit that helps him is his age. LeVert is a junior, but his birthday in late August actually makes him younger than some sophomores. He could essentially be playing his second NCAA season right now but will have had the benefit of playing against the better college competition (as opposed to high school) for three years.

If LeVert falls to the Heat pick and Hinkie grabs him, I would be thrilled. He will fit wonderfully next to KJ and whatever combination of bigs we wind up with, opening the floor up in ways that our lineup has been aching for the last couple of years. He has potential and fits in with our current building plan. I’m totally on board with him.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson—I have a confession: I don’t understand how Michael Kidd-Gilchrist became so lauded that he went second overall in 2012 (ahead of Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard), but Hollis-Jefferson’s stock was so low last year that he came back to school, and this year he’s a late first round pick. Kidd-Gilchrist is taller and longer than RHJ, but beyond that there’s little that separates them. (I know that history will likely view that MKG pick as poor, but the difference in their standing is still remarkable). And while RHJ’s shooting has been much maligned throughout the years, he’s actually shooting a respectable 33.3% from three this year, and almost 75% on free throws.

The apprehension, fairly, stems from concerns over spacing. If RHJ can’t become a passable shooter, then he’ll be Tony Allen. But here’s the thing—wouldn’t you want Tony Allen on your team? Probably not this current iteration of the Sixers, but Tony Allen is a serious asset who provides so much more than just hard-nosed defense for the Grizz. RHJ is bigger than Allen and already has shown the capacity to be a better shooter. To me, it’s a no-brainer that he’ll be a good pro, and likely that he’ll have a long career.

The stat that stands out above all else is RHJ’s rebounding. The dude just goes after the ball hard, and always seems to be able to make a play on the ball. 10.2 rebounds per 40 minutes is absolutely elite, and is actually a full half rebound more than MKG averaged. It’s possible that MKG would have had a higher rebounding rate had he returned for a sophomore campaign, but 10.2 is still an insane stat for a small forward.

In all honesty, I expected his steals and blocks to be higher than they are. If I had access to matchup statistics, I might be able to show his defensive impact in a meaningful way, but his stocks are middle of the road.

The big number for RHJ, as I’ve already mentioned, is 33.3%. He has only shot 12 threes so far this season and will need to prove that he can maintain that rate over a larger sample size. Regardless, it’s miles ahead of MKG’s 12.5% in college, and even better than KJ’s shooting from last year, and he’s proven capable thus far. Nobody expects RHJ to become a world-beater from behind the arc. But if he can prove that he’s not a detriment, he should rise on some boards.

I love Hollis-Jefferson. He’s a terrible fit for this team, but someone is going to end up with a steal of a player, and that team is going to be very, very happy. Maybe the Sixers decide that they can live with his growing pains (we are, after all, not afraid of projects), and wind up selecting him higher than he’s currently projected. I can’t say I would blame them for buying low on a player who will certainly be able to contribute off the bat.

Sam Dekker—In all honesty, he just kind of bores me. He’s not an outstanding athlete and just does everything okay. Wisconsin plays a style that emphasizes sharing the ball, so no player can really pad his numbers, and Dekker can’t play to his own personal strengths outside of that.

Dekker’s numbers are average across the board. He’s 6th in points and shooting, 8th in rebounds and assists, and dead last in steals and blocks. He’s gotten off to a slow start and some of his numbers (especially rebounding) were stronger last year, but I just don’t see how he’s an exciting NBA prospect. To me, he’s an average athlete who does everything well but nothing great. If anyone is on the Dekker-train, let me know why and I’d be happy to listen. But I didn’t see it before looking at the stats, and I don’t now, either.

Justin Jackson—Jackson was more intriguing before he completely laid an egg against Kentucky’s length and athleticism this weekend. All of his numbers a little worse now, and where, before, we could have gleaned positives from them, now he mostly just sits in the bottom of each of these categories. On the one hand that shows how early it is—if one game can have such a large impact on your numbers, it can’t mean too much. On the other, he’s just a little worse than most of these players.

He’s easily the worst athlete among this group of players, and needs to compensate in other ways to make up for it. Coming out of high school he was billed as being a very cerebral player with a good understanding of how to play and a great shooter. So far, one of those two statements has proven true.

Jackson was one of (if not the) the highest scorers from the McDonald’s All-American game last spring. If you haven’t watched that game, Jackson doesn’t stick out at all. You never notice him, but then he ends up in the right place at the right time and, before you know it, he’s leading all scorers with 21 points. He’s a smart player who has learned how to leverage his knowledge of the game to make up for his lack of athleticism. The stats confirm this. As a pure scorer, he’s not bad, but nothing to write home about, and as a rebounder, he’s the worst of the small forwards. But he understands how to play the game, and you can see that in his assists and his stocks. He clearly grasps player movement very well.

Unfortunately, his shooting has been truly awful so far this year. I would expect that it ticks upwards very soon, but 20% from three is horrific. His value is tied strongly to his shooting, so I hope for his sake that he can turn it around.

Jackson is also old for his class. He was home schooled before coming to UNC, so he will actually be 20 years old on draft day, despite being a true freshman. LeVert, a junior, is only five months older than him.

That's it for this round. I look forward to doing this again when everything's a little less fluid than right now and players have solidified their numbers a bit more. For a team that desperately needs help on the wings, this is a very exciting draft.

A user-created LB joint. The Liberty Ballers staff does not contribute to FanPosts.