FanPost

Look to 2015 Draft for Trade Value

I want trades. You want trades. The Sixers want trades. As the 2013 trade deadline approaches, however, the market is still murky. Unpredictable injuries and unexpected ineptitude have plunged teams that previously weren't planning to partake, into the tank race. This complicates things for the Sixers who are trying to tank into a top pick for the 2014 draft and also trying to trade Turner, Hawes, and Thad for good value.

Because so few teams are contenders and because the 2014 draft class is one of the most hyped in a decade due to having a wealth of superstar potential at the top, a buyer's market is shaping up for teams looking to acquire veteran players to make a run. That means it's going to be hard to get good value for our guys especially Thad. Acquiring a 2014 lottery pick is impossible at this point and you probably wouldn't even be able to get a top 20 pick now. With this in mind, perhaps the best value for Sixers vets can be had in the form of 2015 picks.

This isn't a new idea; it's been bandied about in multiple discussions on the blog over the past month or so. I do believe it is a good idea, though, for a few reasons.

1) It's possible the Sixers lose their first round pick in the 2015 draft to Miami if they make the playoffs in the 2014-2015 season. An 8th seed isn't farfetched for a core of MCW + Noel + top 5 pick + late lottery pick, especially in the Eastern Conference.

2) Future picks come with some variability and that variability can be good. Assuming that title contenders are our most likely trade partners, would you prefer a 2014 pick that has extreme certainty of slating in the back of the draft or would you prefer a 2015 pick from that contender which has a higher chance of having an injury or some other unpredictable event affecting their play?

3) The further into the future the pick is the less protection it is given (normally) due to the acquiring team's delay in receiving the asset.

With that in mind, let's take a look at who has the ability to trade their 2015 pick. As I understand the rules, any team that has already traded a 2014 or 2016 pick (protected or not) cannot trade their 2015 pick unless they are getting a 2015 1st back. Atlanta did this with Brooklyn by receiving the rights to swap depending on which pick would be best, however the Sixers have future firsts committed to Miami and Orlando and would not be able to do that.

Atlanta: Can swap with Brookyln

Boston: Boston, LAC

Chicago: Chicago

Cleveland: Cleveland, Memphis (6-14 only), Miami (top 10 protected)

Houston: Houston

Milwaukee: Milwaukee

OKC: OKC

Orlando: Orlando

Phoenix: Phoenix, LAL (top 5 protected)

San Antonio: San Antonio

Toronto: Toronto

Utah: Utah

So who in this breakdown are we likely to swing deals with? I think we can safely remove Orlando, Toronto and Utah from our trade partner list. They don't seem like they're looking to make moves to get better this year. I would remove Houston as well because not only are they not looking to trade first round picks they're looking to acquire them. The only way I could see them trading a pick is if they're getting a superstar back. San Antonio also probably isn't a fit as a trade partner for the Sixers. That leaves the Sixers with Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee, OKC, and Phoenix.

So here are a couple of trades I cooked up that might be possible.

Trade 1:

Chicago gets Turner

Sixers get Deng + Chicago's 2015 1st

This deal is centered on the fact that the Bulls will want to reduce how much luxury tax they pay this season, which has been discussed in another fanpost by another commenter. It's good for the Sixers because they get a 1st for Turner and Deng is an expiring.

Trade 2:

OKC gets Thad

Sixers get Perkins, Perry Jones III, Thunder 2015 1st

I'm not sure this is enough for Thad especially since we have to take Perkins' contract for this to work but we get an unreasonable infatuation of the blog in PJIII and a 1st. Obviously this would be better if we could get Jeremy Lamb but that seems very optimistic given his cheap contract and good play this season. Would the Thunder do this deal for Hawes instead of Thad? I would be happy with that

Trade 3:

Atlanta gets Hawes

Sixers get Elton Brand, Shelvin Mack, and 2015 Atl/Bklyn swap pick

This one is probably the most unlikely to go down. Horford is out for the season so maybe they want Hawes to stay solidly in the playoffs. I don't know if their new GM cares about the playoffs this year but it seems like being a mid level seed was important to Hawks teams of past. It's obvious why the Sixers do this.

I will admit my trades kind of suck and are unimaginative so I'll open the floor up to you all to come up with trades focused on getting 2015 1sts.

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