The following is a look at all of the teams that have a chance at being the worst in the league next season. I'll look at the win shares of the players on the team, and give the team's management a score from 1-10. A lower score means the team is planning more towards the future, while a higher score means a team wants to win now. The number next to each player's name is their win share.
I've also included a list of "potential breakout players," by which I mean players who might provide two or more wins than they did in 2012-2013. Some of the "breakout players" are really just players who are coming off of injury-plagued seasons, or who are coming off of uncharacteristically bad seasons.
Listed next to the team name is their record in 2012-2013. The teams are ranked so that the teams that are most likely to have the worst record are at the bottom.
This isn't meant to be a definitive analysis, but rather just one way of looking at teams. By no means do I think Win Shares are perfect, but I do think they're correlated with the quality of players.
Basketball reference explains how they calculate win shares here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
Major win producers still available:
Nikola Pekovic 6.7, Jeff Teague 6.1, Andrei Kirilenko 6.0, Nate Robinson 5.9, Brandon Jennings 5.8, Monta Ellis 4.6, Metta World Peace 4.6, Tyler Hansbrough 4.4, Antawn Jamison 4.3, Brandan Wright 4.1, Elton Brand 3.4
Teams that will almost definitely make the playoffs in 2013-2014 (8 teams):
Key Players: LeBron James 19.3, Dwyane Wade 9.6, Chris Bosh 9.0, Ray Allen 5.4, Mario Chalmers 5.2, Shane Battier 4.4, Udonis Haslem 3.2, Mike Miller 2.6 (in 59 games)
Potential Breakout Players: Norris Cole
Rookies: James Ennis
Weakness: Roy Hibbert
Analysis: The reigning NBA champions. Note that they still haven't re-signed Chris Andersen. Moving right along...
Key Players: Chris Paul 13.9, Blake Griffin 10.6, Matt Barnes 6.3, DeAndre Jordan 6.2, Darren Collison 5.6, Jamal Crawford 5.4, Jared Dudley 4.8, JJ Redick 4.5, Willie Green 2.5, Ryan Hollins 1.7
Potential Breakout Players: Hollins
Rookies: Reggie Bullock
Weakness: Chris Paul's health
Analysis: I really like their free agent moves, so I'll put them second, but I see them, the Thunder, the Rockets, and the Spurs as the frontrunners in the West.
Key Players: Kevin Durant 18.9, Russell Westbrook 11.6, Serge Ibaka 9.4, Thabo Sefolosha 6.8, Nick Collison 5.2, Kendrick Perkins 2.5, Reggie Jackson 2.5, Hasheem Thabeet 2.2
Potential Breakout Players: Jackson, Thabeet, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones
Rookies: Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Grant Jarrett
Weakness: Russell Westbrook's health, Center
Analysis: Unlike some other teams, the Thunder keep their draft picks and build for both the present and the future. Like the Spurs with Tim Duncan, the Thunder could be a contender for the length of Durant's career.
Key Players:George Hill 9.7, David West 9.1, Paul George 9.0, Roy Hibbert 6.1, Lance Stephenson 5.5, Ian Mahinmi 2.3, Chris Copeland 2.1 (in 56 games), Gerald Green 1.3
Potential Breakout Players: Danny Granger, Copeland, George, Hibbert, Stephenson, Mahinmi
Rookies: Solomon Hill
Analysis: A good young team. It'll be interesting to see whether they take a step forward next year.
Key Players: Deron William 10.9, Brook Lopez 9.0, Paul Pierce 7.2, Kevin Garnett 5.6, Joe Johnson 5.1, Andray Blatche 4.9, Reggie Evans 4.3, Jason Terry 4.0, Shaun Livingston 2.6
Potential Breakout Players: Lopez, Mirza Teletovic
Rookies: Mason Plumlee
Analysis: I could see them challenging the Heat for the top seed in a best-case scenario, or getting (about) the seventh seed in the worst case scenario. But either way, they'll make the playoffs.
Key Players: Carmelo Anthony 9.5, Tyson Chandler 9.3, JR Smith 6.7, Raymond Felton 4.2, Pablo Prigioni 3.2, Amare Stoudemire 2.7 (in 29 games), Iman Shumpert 1.9 (in 45 games), Andrea Bargnani 0.1 (in 39 games)
Potential Breakout Players: Stoudemire, Bargnani
Rookies: Tim Hardaway, Jr.
Analysis: I thought the Bargnani trade was awful, and I think they'll be worse next season. But they should still make the playoffs easily.
Key Players: Joakim Noah 7.3, Jimmy Butler 7.0, Luol Deng 6.3, Carlos Boozer 5.7, Mike Dunleavy 4.4, Taj Gibson 3.3, Kirk Hinrich 3.1
Potential Breakout Players: Derrick Rose, Butler
Rookies: Tony Snell, Erik Murphy
Weakness: Derrick Rose's health
Analysis: Obviously, the return of Rose is the big question here. Even with him playing just average, they're a decent team.
Western Conference teams that will probably make the playoffs (5 teams):
Key Players: Tony Parker 9.3, Tim Duncan 8.3, Tiago Splitter 8.2, Kawhi Leonard 6.2, Danny Green 5.9, Manu Ginobili 4.5, Boris Diaw 4.4, Marco Belinelli 3.0, Matt Bonner 2.5, Gary Neal 1.9
Potential Breakout Players: Leonard, Patrick Mills, Cory Joseph, Nando De Colo, Jeff Pendergraph
Rookies: Livio Jean-Charles, DeShaun Thomas
Analysis: They might be the best team in the West, but there's the slight possibility that age and injuries could catch up to them. Even without Duncan and Parker, they could probably still make the playoffs.
Key Players: James Harden 12.8, Dwight Howard 7.6, Chandler Parsons 7.0, Omer Asik 5.5, Jeremy Lin 5.4, Greg Smith 4.0, Patrick Beverley 2.2 (in 41 games),
Potential Breakout Players: Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Howard, Beverley, Smith
Rookies: Isaiah Canaan
Weakness: Asik doesn't want to play with Howard. They should get a pretty good asset for him, but until they do, they only have two good big men.
Analysis: This is a championship-contending team. There's at least a chance that Harden and Howard don't work as well as it should, and the West is very good, so I have them down here.
Key Players: Marc Gasol 11.5, Mike Conley 9.9, Zach Randolph 7.9, Kosta Koufos 6.5, Tony Allen 5.1, Jerryd Bayless 4.0, Quincy Poindexter 3.2, Ed Davis 2.1 (in 36 games), Tayshaun Prince 1.8 (in 37 games)
Potential Breakout Players: Tony Wroten, Poindexter, Davis, Prince
Rookies: Jamaal Franklin
Analysis: Another championship-caliber team; on the off chance that they miss the playoffs and have a down year, it'll probably be because the West is so tough.
Key Players: Kenneth Faried 7.8, Ty Lawson 7.4, Danilo Gallinari 7.2, JJ HIckson 6.9, Andre Miller 5.4, Javale McGee 4.9, Corey Brewer 3.9, Randy Foye 3.7, Wilson Chandler 3.1, Darrell Arthur 1.7
Potential Breakout Players: Lawson, Gallinari, McGee, Chandler, Arthur, Evan Fournier, Jordan Hamilton, Anthony Randolph
Rookies: Erick Green, Joffrey Lauvergne
Weakness: Lack of a star player
Analysis: A good team, but they could take a step back with the loss of Iguodala and Koufos.
Key Players: Stephen Curry 11.2, David Lee 9.1, Andre Iguodala 5.6, Klay Thompson 4.3, Harrison Barnes 2.8, Andrew Bogut 1.7 (in 32 games), Festus Ezeli 1.5
Potential Breakout Players: Iguodala, Thompson, Barnes, Bogut, Ezeli
Rookies: Nemanja Nedovic
Weakness: Health and depth
Analysis: They lost good players in Carl Landry, Jarrett Jack, and Brandon Rush. They could be a truly great team competing for a championship, but that would take durable players and growth from Thompson and Barnes.
Playoff Contenders (10 teams):
Potential Breakout Players: Jenkins, Williams, Horford
Rookies: Lucas Noguiera, Dennis Schroeder
Weakness: Point Guard
Analysis: Combining the inside threats of Horford and Millsap with the outside threats of Korver and Jenkins could be deadly on offense. If the Hawks were to sign a decent point guard (like RFA Jeff Teague), they would be in a higher tier.
Potential Breakout Players: Lillard, Leonard, Matthews, Aldridge
Rookies: CJ McCollum, Allen Crabbe
Weakness: Lack of a superstar player
Analysis: This team will actually be pretty good. They're only this low because the West has so many good teams. They had no depth last year, but they seem to have fixed that issue.
Potential Breakout Players: Davis, Holiday, Evans, Rivers, Aminu
Rookies: Pierre Jackson
Analysis: This team has a lot of upside, so they could definitely make the playoffs. Even if they don't, they have enough good players to avoid the basement.
Potential Breakout Players: Valanciunas, Fields
Rookies: None of note
Weak spot: Depth
Analysis: The Raptors look ready to be a fringe playoff contender. Their starters are all at least decent players, and Valanciunas has some nice upside. Fields could have a bounceback year and Ross could improve in his second year. The loss of Andrea Bargnani could be addition by subtraction.
Weakness: Relying on growth of young players and returns from injuries.
Analysis: The Wizards got hit by multiple injuries last year. Between their solid frontcourt veterans and their promising young guards, this team is a playoff contender if healthy.
Potential Breakout Players: Irving, Thomspon, Varejao, Zeller, Waiters
Weakness: Relying on growth and development of young players and returns from injuries.
Analysis: With some development of their young guys, and with a healthy return of Varejao, they should be a playoff contender in the East, although a disappointing season is certainly possible.
Potential Breakout Players: Nowitzki, Crowder
Rookies: Shane Larkin, Ricardo Ledo
Weakness: Shooting Guard, depth
Analysis: They signed Calderon and Harris, so I assume they're interested in winning now. If they fill out their roster, they'll be in the playoff picture.
Potential Breakout Players: Nash, Gasol, Jordan Hill
Weakness: Big men
Analysis: Even though they have injury problems, a team with Nash, Gasol, a few decent role players, and potentially Kobe should at least avoid the basement. The signing of Kaman would seem to indicate they want to win this year.
Potential Breakout Players: Love, Rubio, Williams, Budinger
Weakness: Relying on injury comebacks, big men
Analysis: If they re-sign Pekovic, Rubio and Love return to form, and Martin meshes with the team, they could be a pretty good team. But I could also see another disappointing 30 win season.
Potential Breakout Players: Drummond, Monroe, Knight, Singler, Jerebko, Stuckey, Smith
Rookies: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Mitchell
Weak Spot: Point Guard
Analysis: This team has the potential to grow into a playoff contender this year if things go right, but they could be in the basement if things go wrong. With so many young players and Josh Smith, this team really could go either way.
Likely lottery teams (6 teams):
Potential Breakout Players: Sanders, Udoh, Henson, Gustavo Ayon
Rookies: Nate Wolters
Weakness: Point Guard
Analysis: The signing of Mayo and Delfino would seem to indicate they plan on winning now. On the other hand, at the moment, they really need a point guard. Stay tuned.
Weakness: Both guard spots, lack of a star player
Analysis: They might look like they're tanking, but this could actually be a decent team if they get anything from their guards at all. Favors and Kanter are two of the most promising young big men in basketball, Williams is coming off a down year, Hayward is pretty good, Rush is a good player, and Biedrins could be an (incredibly overpaid) serviceable backup big man. If Trey Burke can adjust quickly to the NBA, I think this team could surprise people.
Potential Breakout Players: Cousins
Rookies: Ben McLemore
Weakness: Small forward
Analysis: The Carl Landry signing shows they want to win now. They actually have a pretty good frontcourt and two good point guards. If they get production from the wings, they might be a fringe playoff contender.
Potential Breakout Players: Bledsoe, Gortat, Beasley (inasmuch as he could be less awful)
Weakness: Lack of a star player
Analysis: If the Suns don't move their veterans (Dragic, Scola, Butler, Gortat), they could get get out of the basement in 2013-2014. On the other hand, they look like the favorites to the worst team in the West.
Potential Breakout Players: Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, Biyombo, Taylor
Rookies: Cody Zeller
Weakness: Shooting guard and small forward.
Analysis: The Bobcats looked like they could be the leader for the crown of worst team in 2013-2014, but then they signed Jefferson. Growth from their young players could make them a borderline playoff team, especially if they add a shooting guard in free agency.
Potential Breakout Players: Rondo, Green, Sullinger, Bradley, Humphries, Wallace, Fab Melo
Weakness: Lack of a focal point for their offense, especially with Rondo out.
Analysis: Even though they just traded two Hall of Famers, the Celtics actually don't seem intent on completely tearing the team down, as they seem to plan on keeping Rondo (who is coming off an ACL injury). They have numerous young players with some potential, and veterans coming off of bad seasons.
The Basement (2 Teams): These are the teams that I think don't have even a remote shot at a winning record.
Potential Breakout Players: Nelson, Vucevic, Harkless, Harris, Nicholson, O'Quinn
Rookies: Victor Oladipo
Weakness: Lack of starting-caliber talent (at the present)
Analysis: They have a bunch of decent young players who could become solid NBA starters, along with two veterans coming off disappointing seasons. They have no shot at the playoffs, but a little growth and injury luck could get them out of the basement. The news that they're thinking about playing Oladipo at point guard gives them the lowest mindset score.
Potential Breakout Players: Turner, Moultrie, Allen, Royce White
Weakness: Point Guard, Small Forward
Analysis: Until the Sixers trade Young, they haven't confirmed to be in full-scale tanking mode. Still, this team should be very bad with the loss Holiday and Dorrell Wright.