Projected rotation and minutes breakdown

I think Collins (and probably most good coaches) think about the units they put on the floor and how they work together. Collins, maybe more than some, focuses a lot on the 2nd unit. That may have been the case more in the past because of having Thad and Lou who are great players but can't always guard a 1st string offensive player. Collins said today that he still plans on using Thad off the bench. He has also said that he likes playing ET with Thad because of ET's defensive rebounding skills. It also makes since to play Thad with a beefier Center (aka not Hawes). With that in mind, I wanted to do a thought experiment and breakdown how the units and minutes could end up. Below is what i came up with. At the bottom I'll tell you the problems I have with this breakdown.

Starting unit - Jrue, ET, DW, Hawes, Bynum (8mins)

Unit 1a - Jrue, JRich, DW, Thad, Bynum (5 mins)

Unit 2 - ET, Jrich, Nick, Thad, Lavoy (5 mins)

Unit 2b - ET, Jrich, Nick, Thad, Kwame (3 mins)

Closing unit - Jrue, ET, DW, Thad, Bynum (3 mins)

Repeat for 2nd half.

Minute breakdown:

Jrue = 32 mins

ET = 36 mins

DW = 32 mins

Hawes = 16 mins

Bynum = 32 mins

Thad = 32 mins

JRich = 26 mins

Lavoy = 10 mins

Nick = 16 mins

Kwame = 6 mins

This is a 9-man rotation. We know that Collins will probably use more than 9 men in most games, but this could be his core 9 that he'll stick with in tight/important games. I think you could interchange Jrich and DW. I like Dorrel's length and think having he, ET and Jrue on the court will be our best back-court defense. But, I could see preferring Jrich since he may be a slightly better shooter than DW.

Problems: I don't like having ET playing the most minutes on the team. He is probably the 3rd or 4th best player on the team at best. But, Iggy left a big hole. Who guards Lebron, Melo, Pierce, Granger? Maybe Wright, Jrich or Thad can help a little on those guys, but don't really like those match-ups. Also, who is our back up PG? I think ET takes most of the ball handling responsibilities when Jrue is getting a break. Jrich might be able to handle it for a couple minutes a game, and maybe we'll sign someone who can be more than injury back-up. I also don't like that this breakdown doesn't give many minutes to Lavoy or any minutes to Moultrie. I think Lavoy earned more than 10mins pg by his playoff performance last year, but I just don't see how it fits in. I think Moultrie could take some of Thad's minutes if he impresses coming out of training camp. Maybe Kwame takes the Battie role and his minute end up being split between Lavoy and Moultrie. I'd prefer that, but I think Collins brought Kwame here to play some minutes.

Like I said this is a thought experiment more than an actual projection, but I do think this is the most like line-up given what we know today.


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