A Statistical Analysis Of Clutch NBA Shooters Since 2000

ORLANDO, FL - FEBRUARY 26: (L-R) LeBron James #6 of the Miami Heat and the Eastern Conference talks with Kobe Bryant #24 of the Los Angeles Lakers and the Western Conference during the 2012 NBA All-Star Game at the Amway Center on February 26, 2012 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

In the NBA, the term ‘clutch', is defined as "the plays that occur during the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points". But the public perception of clutch goes beyond that.

Players are usually classified as "clutch" or "unclutch" based solely on their ability or inability to make the final shot of a close game. Basically, the first 47 minutes and 59 seconds are insignificant, as long as you're in position to win the game, and proceed to do so by making a clutch final shot.

Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are the poster children for this discussion.

The Worldwide Leader lauds Kobe because he's won five rings, looks the part – fully equipped with the patented MJ fist-pump – and has made some memorable walk-off shots throughout his career, including a single season where he made an absurd number – something like 10.

On the other hand, LeBron James -– unquestionably the most talented player in the league – is still ring-less and his recent NBA Finals failure has been well-documented. The simple fact that I can only remember one LeBron game-winner (against Orlando in the Playoffs), off the top of my head, yet have the ability to rattle off Kobe game-winners like WIBR rattles off forgotten Philadelphia athletes, is a severe detriment to LeBron's case as a clutch player. It also allows guys like Skip Bayless and tweeps with the word "RINGZ" at the forefront of their Twitter bios to spout off their opinions on "clutchness" as fact, without ever, I repeat, ever, citing evidence to support their opinion.

What Skip and the "RINGZ" fellas fail to mention, is that LeBron James – based on the statistics – has shot a higher percentage than Kobe Bryant in both, "clutch" situations (last 5 minutes of a 5 point game), and shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute of games since 2000.

Because of the various definitions clutch (Only the fourth quarter? The final 5 minutes? The final minute? Last possession? Does the regular season matter? Only Playoffs?), the limited data available and the relatively small sample sizes, labeling players as clutch has become an extremely subjective exercise, and will probably remain so for all of eternity. Mythical factors such as, the "clutch gene" and the possession of "killer instinct/a naturally-protruding-jaw-clinch", also stand in the way of an agreement between the general public on what's clutch and who's clutch in the NBA.

Since the idea of clutch is so vague, no matter how eloquently written, or statistically-stuffed an argument is, most fans, bloggers, analysts and GMs alike will never alter their opinions of who's clutch and who's not. That said, over the past 48 hours I've completed the ultimate exercise in futility by compiling every "clutch" NBA statistic since 2000 (12 years).

These numbers do not represent the end-all-be-all of "clutchness" in the NBA, because there are still a lot of flaws and missing variables (i.e. not all clutch moments are created equal). The objective here is not to identify who's clutch and who's not, but rather provide a statistical snap-shot of what NBA players have both excelled and failed in certain situations that may be considered "clutch" over the past decade-plus, sample sizes considered. It'd be an added bonus if minds were opened to the idea that Kobe wasn't the clutchest thing since sliced bread and that LeBron couldn't close the lid on Snooki's pickle jar. (I just made both those sayings up, and neither worked as planned, although the LeBron-Snooki one is pretty innuendo-ish. I'm hungry).

I gathered all the numbers* from Basketball Reference's shot finder. Without further adieu.

*through February 27, 2012

In gathering the numbers, my goal was to have enough players for comparison's sake, while maintaining large enough sample sizes for the data to be significant. I also wanted current players only, so I left out the retired folk.

The first table includes 15 active players who have attempted at least 650 "clutch" shots since the 2000-01 season. Again, for this set, ‘clutch' is defined as "the shots that occur during the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points". Playoffs are included.

"Clutch" since 2000 (click column header to sort)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd %Ast'd Best Worst
Kobe 606 1525 0.397 99 351 0.282 148 0.244 46% 32%
Pierce 450 1163 0.387 97 298 0.326 185 0.411 44% 21%
Dirk 443 1036 0.428 75 229 0.328 206 0.465 48% 37%
LeBron 461 1003 0.460 93 297 0.313 117 0.254 55% 37%
Vince 401 1001 0.401 67 217 0.309 159 0.397 50% 36%
R.Allen 371 0916 0.405 160 450 0.356 192 0.518 48% 34%
Terry 381 0870 0.438 108 285 0.379 164 0.430 55% 33%
KG 368 0848 0.434 8 36 0.222 212 0.576 65% 33%
Wade 321 0774 0.415 30 124 0.242 59 0.184 47% 32%
Duncan 376 0818 0.460 2 20 0.100 156 0.415 55% 36%
Nash 370 0806 0.459 125 314 0.398 65 0.176 56% 35%
A.Miller 269 0678 0.397 19 82 0.232 64 0.238 47% 26%
Billups 309 0796 0.388 120 367 0.327 110 0.356 46% 24%
Melo 276 0655 0.421 31 111 0.279 140 0.507 52% 38%
TMac 266 0714 0.373 44 164 0.268 89 0.335 42% 35%
Avg. 378 907 0.417 72 223 0.291 138 0.367 50% 33%

Observations:

  • Of the 15 players listed, Kobe Bryant's shooting percentage (40%) was below average.
  • Tim Duncan and LeBron James shot the highest percentage (46%).
  • Steve Nash was pretty good during the clutch.
  • 5 of the 15 players were assisted on less than 30% of their makes, meaning they created their own shots (most likely isolations). Those players are: Steve Nash (18%), Dwyane Wade (18%), Andre Miller (24%), Kobe Bryant (24%) and LeBron James (24%).
  • Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Carmelo Anthony all had %ast'd above 50%, meaning their teammates were creating makes for them more often than not.
  • Tracy McGrady shot the lowest percentage in clutch situations.
  • Why did Andre Miller shoot so many clutch shots?

The second table is the same as the first, except instead of dating back to 2000, it begins during the 2006-07 season to get a better snapshot of today's stars, and less Andre Miller. I made the cut-off at 370 "clutch" attempts "that occur during the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points", because I wanted to include Brandon Roy. 15 active players are compared, playoffs included.

"Clutch" since 2006 (click column header to sort)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd %Ast'd Best Worst
Kobe 317 769 0.412 58 185 0.314 69 0.218 46% 39%
LeBron 333 714 0.466 74 231 0.320 79 0.237 55% 42%
Dirk 235 541 0.434 34 107 0.318 107 0.455 48% 40%
Wade 205 507 0.404 27 101 0.267 34 0.166 47% 32%
Durant 191 479 0.399 40 123 0.325 103 0.539 47% 35%
Melo 193 447 0.432 23 72 0.319 84 0.435 52% 42%
Pierce 167 430 0.388 32 97 0.330 60 0.359 44% 21%
Vince 185 420 0.440 42 117 0.359 72 0.389 50% 38%
Russ 150 403 0.372 13 56 0.232 23 0.153 42% 30%
CP3 187 430 0.435 23 73 0.315 22 0.118 50% 37%
JJ 174 449 0.388 40 114 0.351 47 0.270 46% 32%
Iggy 158 394 0.401 24 112 0.214 28 0.177 48% 31%
Rose 168 401 0.419 4 31 0.129 23 0.137 44% 40%
R.Allen 151 391 0.386 78 215 0.363 105 0.695 44% 34%
Roy 166 371 0.447 24 71 0.338 26 0.157 48% 36%
Avg. 199 476 0.415 36 114 0.300 59 0.300 47% 35%

Observations:

  • Kobe's percentage (41%) was slightly below average and LeBron had the best percentage (47%).
  • The worst percentage, Russell Westbrook at 37%.
  • Why did Andre Iguodala attempt so many clutch shots? Because there's an ‘Andre' quota of one, and he shot a better percentage since 2006 than: Ray Allen, Kevin Durant, Joe Johnson, Russell Westbrook and Paul Pierce – that's why.
  • Chris Paul was assisted on the least amount of makes (12%), while Ray Allen was assisted on the most makes at (70%). Damn those Celtics and their great play-calling.
  • Brandon Roy, though.

The third table brings us a little closer to Kobe time – the public's perception of clutchness – which included shot attempts to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter or overtime of a game, playoffs included. The sample size is considerably smaller as the range in attempts is 95 (Ben Gordon) to 230 (Kobe), so the list is cut to 10 active players, instead of 15, and dates back to the year 2000.

Final minute since 2000 (click column header to sort)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd %Ast'd Best Worst
Kobe 80 230 0.348 23 89 0.258 15 0.188 44% 15%
Vince 52 162 0.321 19 57 0.333 27 0.519 40% 27%
Pierce 43 156 0.276 14 50 0.280 15 0.349 50% 9%
R.Allen 45 129 0.349 27 72 0.375 24 0.533 50% 20%
Dirk 51 116 0.440 9 28 0.321 16 0.314 60% 27%
Billups 33 116 0.284 20 61 0.328 12 0.364 55% 13%
LeBron 48 132 0.364 7 46 0.152 8 0.167 53% 9%
JJ 32 100 0.320 4 21 0.190 6 0.188 35% 21%
Wade 37 114 0.325 10 39 0.256 6 0.162 47% 8%
B.Gordon 33 095 0.347 11 37 0.297 11 0.333 57% 20%
Avg. 45.4 135 0.337 14.4 50 0.279 14 0.312 49% 17%

Observations:

  • Dirk recorded, far and away, the highest percentage (44%)..
  • 34% was the average in these scenarios. Dirk, LeBron, Ray Allen, Ben Gordon and Kobe were above average.
  • 35% of LeBron's attempts were three-pointers, of which he shot an atrocious 15% on.
  • Ray Allen (53%) and Vince Carter (52%) had the highest percentage of makes assisted, while LeBron (17%) and Wade (16%) had the lowest.

The fourth table is the same as table three, except it includes 15 players instead of 10 – I wanted to get more notable guys from today's NBA – and instead of dating back to 2000, data begins with the 2006-2007 season. As always, playoffs included.

Final minute since 2006 (click column header to sort)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd %Ast'd Best Worst
Kobe 35 94 0.372 16 41 0.390 9 0.257 44% 33%
Vince 22 66 0.333 11 31 0.355 11 0.500 40% 33%
Pierce 15 53 0.283 2 11 0.182 3 0.200 32% 18%
R.Allen 25 65 0.385 17 39 0.436 17 0.680 50% 29%
LeBron 35 91 0.385 5 34 0.147 5 0.143 44% 35%
JJ 18 60 0.300 0 10 0.000 3 0.167 35% 21%
Melo 11 33 0.333 2 9 0.222 4 0.364 64% 36%
Wade 16 71 0.225 9 34 0.265 1 0.063 36% 8%
B.Gordon 19 67 0.284 5 25 0.200 5 0.263 42% 20%
Iggy 18 70 0.257 3 20 0.150 5 0.278 43% 13%
Roy 26 60 0.433 6 15 0.400 2 0.077 56% 29%
D-Will 23 56 0.411 5 17 0.294 6 0.261 54% 30%
Gay 25 56 0.446 8 21 0.381 11 0.440 60% 30%
Durant 25 78 0.321 10 22 0.455 16 0.640 60% 18%
Rose 16 58 0.276 1 8 0.125 2 0.125 30% 25%
Avg. 21.9 65.2 0.336 6.7 22.5 0.267 6.7 0.297 46% 25%

Observations:

  • Rudy Gay, Deron Williams and Brandon Roy (sad face) all shot above 40%, which is 6 percent higher than the average.
  • The three worst guys were Wade (23%), Iguodala (26%) and Rose (28%).
  • LeBron and Kobe were both above average.
  • Again, LeBron shot a lot of threes (37% of his attempts) and converted an extremely low percentage (15%).
  • Ray Allen was assisted 68% of the time, while Brandon Roy was assisted just 8% of the time.
  • Kobe, Ray Allen and Kevin Durant all had higher three-point percentages than overall field goal percentages.

The final table (so you think) finally gives the people what they want – a collection of shots to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of games in both the regular season and playoffs. Both the sample size and field goal percentages diminished in this scenario. We took the top 12 active guys of the past 6 years (since 2006-07). Now we're down to the nitty gritty – the clutchest of all clutchness.

Final 24 seconds since 2006 (click column header to sort)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd %Ast'd
R.Allen 17 42 0.405 13 27 0.481 11 0.647
Kobe 22 63 0.349 10 27 0.370 7 0.318
Pierce 9 37 0.243 2 8 0.250 2 0.222
Wade 10 53 0.189 5 25 0.200 2 0.200
LeBron 18 61 0.295 2 26 0.077 4 0.222
JJ 9 44 0.205 1 11 0.091 0 0.000
Melo 15 40 0.375 3 13 0.231 4 0.267
Gay 16 41 0.390 5 15 0.333 4 0.250
D-Will 19 48 0.396 3 13 0.231 4 0.211
Durant 17 63 0.270 9 31 0.290 12 0.706
Rose 9 40 0.225 1 7 0.143 2 0.222
Roy 16 38 0.421 6 14 0.429 2 0.125
Avg. 14.8 47.5 0.314 5.0 18.1 0.261 4.5 0.282

Observations:

  • The three most efficient-shooting players in this scenario were: Brandon Roy (42%), Ray Allen (41%) and Deron Williams (40%).
  • Ray Allen's percentage can be mis-leading, because once again he led the group in %ast'd, meaning he was probably taking the easiest shots, thanks to his teammates.
  • At 30%, LeBron was below average (31%) and made only 2-26 three pointers.
  • Kobe was above average with 35% and 37% from beyond the arch.

Finally, I threw in three small bonus tables to touch on two sentiments. First, that Kobe has performed significantly better than LeBron in "the clutch", specifically "when it matters" aka the Playoffs. And two, that LeBron is clearly the Robin to Wade's Batman because, like Kobe, Wade has proven to be so much "more clutch" in big moments.

The following three tables compare Kobe, LeBron and Wade in the three areas of clutch we covered in this post:

1. "Clutch" = "the shots that occur during the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points"

2. Shot attempts to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter or overtime of a game

3. Shots to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of games

These numbers ONLY include the playoffs, dating back to the year 2000, to include all of Kobe's championship runs (except 1999-2000) and every playoff appearance from LeBron and Wade.

Final 24 Sec (Playoffs since 2000)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd Ast'd
Kobe 6 21 0.286 1 8 0.125 1 0.167
LeBron 5 12 0.417 1 3 0.333 1 0.200
Wade 2 5 0.400 0 2 0.000 0 0.000

Final Minute (Playoffs since 2000)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd Ast'd
Kobe 10 31 0.323 2 10 0.200 2 0.200
LeBron 10 20 0.500 1 3 0.333 1 0.100
Wade 3 10 0.300 1 5 0.200 1 0.333

"Clutch" (Playoffs since 2000)

Player FG FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% Ast'd Ast'd
Kobe 81 203 0.399 11 41 0.268 12 0.148
LeBron 70 154 0.455 17 48 0.354 10 0.143
Wade 39 102 0.382 4 15 0.267 5 0.128

Observations:

  • Based the three definitions of "clutch" used throughout this exercise, LeBron has been a more efficient shooter in the playoffs than both Kobe and Wade.

General Observations:

  • The extreme volatility of the average ‘Best season' and ‘Worst season' of the players suggest "clutchness" can vary from year-to-year.
  • LeBron ranked ahead of Kobe in 7 of the 8 samples, including all three playoff samples.
  • Indeed, Brandon Roy could cook.
  • LeBron is obviously in a major clutch slump right now, but it happens to every player, because the sample sizes are so small every year. The statistics indicate he will bounce back at some point.
  • If being the "best closer" means "converting shots at a fairly average rate in any and all ‘clutch' situations since 2000", Kobe Bryant is clearly the best.

In no way shape or form does this statistical look at who has performed well "in the clutch" in the NBA since 2000 definitively tell us which players are more clutch than others, because we still aren't clear on what "clutch" is, or whether it actually exists.

Statistics clearly cannot measure the fear Kobe Bryant puts into opposing teams when he disses Chris Rock on the bench of a playoff game, or the innate weakness shown by LeBron James every time he bites his nails.

The only thing we learn from these statistics is how often the insignificant event of the ball going through the hoop when a player shoots at the end of close games occurs.

RINGZ!

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