Spencer Hawes: Sixers Gamechanger

by Michael Levin on Feb 21, 2012 5:26 AM PST in Philadelphia 76ers Player Profiles

There's been no clearer statistic for the Sixers this season than the one that will follow this colon:

Sixers record with Spencer Hawes: 12-2
Sixers record without Spencer Hawes: 8-10
Pieces of luggage Spencer Hawes has posed with: Two.
Amount of Drake Doremus films based on the Sixers collective relationships with Spencer Hawes: One.

Despite the commoner's statistics telling us over 10 points and 8 rebounds, relatively run-of-the-mill numbers from a starting center, it's quite obvious that Hawes has been the Sixers #gamechanger thus far, and a good chunk of their struggles of late have been due to Spencer's absence. The last game the Sixers lost when Hawes played was THE THIRD GAME OF THE SEASON. WHAT?

Every advanced metric fawns upon the 14 magnificent games Hawes played in 2012. A team-leading .584 and .576 True Shooting and Effective Field Goal Percentages, .216 win shares per 48 minutes, and some extremely solid O- and DRtgs. Most impressively, a 24.7 DRB% and a 16.6 AST% puts him in elite company. The kind of elite company with 8 other names with a 20+ DRB% and a 15+ AST%: Tim Duncan, Josh Smith, Blake Griffin, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Kevin Durant, LeBron James AND......Evan Turner! Go figs.

The Sixers desperately need Spencer to return. He sets up the offense from the top of the key, has been hitting shots at an absurd percentage (74.2% at the rim!) (56% from 16-23!!!), and plays some Decidedly Decent Defense (the 3 D's). Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy Allen have been unequivocally inseparable and admirably passable with Hawes out, but they're still a bit ripe for starter's minutes.

It remains to be seen how long he can sustain his objectively unsustainable career-highs, but if a summer with Shawn Kemp did the trick, then Spencer's timely return would do well towards bringing the Sixers back from Denny Green-ness. He's supposed to be seeing a specialist for his gawky Achilles. Here's hoping the Sixers #gamechanger comes back fresh post-All Star Break and the sky can stop falling onto our scalps.

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As much fun as we were having early on, and admittedly most of knew it was probably too soon and too good to be true, I’ve been in a funk with this team as of late. Some tough losses lately have me down. All-Star weekend can’t come soon enough. We need to regroup. Someone cheer me up.

by dp on Feb 21, 2012 6:23 AM PST reply actions

I’ll have a counter on this up in the next day or two.

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by Derek Bodner on Feb 21, 2012 6:46 AM PST reply actions

Mike, you’re definitely drinking the Hawes-flavored Kool-Aid. I’m pretty sure the gamechanger for the Sixers is the fact that our beloved point guard is playing like something monkeys throw at each other, that they have no low-post offense or defense,they can’t rebound, and all they take are long twos.

And BOSS.

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 21, 2012 7:26 AM PST reply actions

This is a case where I don’t buy any statistical argument for Hawes. He’s average and the numbers should regress accordingly.

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by Jordan Sams on Feb 21, 2012 8:32 AM PST reply actions

You shut your filthy mouth. Spencer Hawes is a saint.

Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.

That is all.

by EREX21 on Feb 21, 2012 9:28 AM PST up reply actions

i like hawes, and think he adds smarts to the team offensively, ups the hustle plays factor, and makes genuinely intelligent passes. with that being said i’m still a little worried that the strength of our team, the guards, has taken more than one step backwards.

by pqrk on Feb 21, 2012 8:32 AM PST reply actions

I think we’re better with Hawes but we’ve also faced better teams with Hawes out of the lineup so I think that kind of screws up our record without him. I think we win a couple of the games we lost if we had him

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by KJ Brophy on Feb 21, 2012 8:48 AM PST reply actions

I’m not saying the Hawesomeness will continue, I just don’t think there’s any doubting the fact that save for maybe Iguodala, Hawes has been our best player this year and without him, they’re a .500 club. He should regress, and we’d still miss that production from the 5-spot.

Just another endorsement for going after a big time big man this offseason.

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by Michael Levin on Feb 21, 2012 9:22 AM PST reply actions

I think his stats will probably regress back closer to his norms, but that doesn’t really address the effect he has on our offense. With Hawes in the lineup the offense our offense flowed much better such that more of the long 2s/3s were uncontested and there were more opportunities to cut to the rim. There are definitely other areas to improve our offense at the moment but many of these areas have been problems since the start of the season – Jrue’s struggles, Lou’s Bossiness, lack of FTs. Whereas when Hawes went out our offense clearly took a step back from where it was.

by J.P.Melle on Feb 21, 2012 9:24 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Feel free to ignore either ‘the offense’ or ‘our offense’ in my second sentence there.

by J.P.Melle on Feb 21, 2012 9:25 AM PST up reply actions

At the all-star break I may write a fanpost projecting what the Sixers’ record would be with a healthy Hawes using the Wins Produced metric. My guess is that his impact may be less then what people think due to the easy schedule early on with him, the hard schedule without him, and the relative success of Voose/Allen at C. My gut says somewhere around 2 wins.

by BrandonB on Feb 21, 2012 12:46 PM PST reply actions