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Who's Your Closer? BOSS Edition with Advanced Stats

I take issue with the term "closer" in any sport. Baseball, basketball, croquet, and pinochle are all perfect examples where closers are always used (gotta bid in bidder's out, ya'll) when they really are nothing more than a worthless label. Specifically to basketball, Doug Collins shouldn't just hand the ball to anyone (i.e. Louis Williams) with time expiring. He should run a play to get the best shot possible rather than a dribble-dribble-fadeaway we've seen since the Andals came to Westeros.

But alas, this is not the case and we've got to settle for mostly Isolation Situations (the name of my alt-punk jazz band) with the game on the line. Thankfully, the extremely useful Basketball-Reference has released a handy new thing called "Shot Finder" which is not as useful as a studfinder when you're hanging pictures, but close. The Sixers defer to Lou most often in the fourth quarter, but is he the most successful?

Check below the fold for some knowledge droppage (the name of my bluegrass rap cover band).

Star-divide

In the fourth quarter, the Sixers leaders in shots attempted are as follows:

  1. Boss - 143 FGA, 44.1% eFG
  2. Thaddeus Young - 81 FGA, 55.6% eFG
  3. Evan Turner - 80 FGA, 50.0% eFG
  4. Jrue Holiday - 79 FGA, 55.1% eFG
  5. Andre Iguodala - 48 FGA, 55.2% eFG
  6. Elton Brand - 48 FGA, 41.2% eFG
  7. Jodie Meeks - 31 FGA, 71.0% eFG

There are a few things worth taking out of this.

  • Boss isn't nearly as good in the 4Q as Collins gives him credit for.
  • I'm really surprised that Thad has that many shot attempts. Turner not so much because in garbage time, he's the guy.
  • Iguodala clearly thinks he's Kobe.
  • OMG JODIE MEEKS. That's absurd. I'm always on the Turner bandwagon over the M33kster and clearly the 3-pointers give his eFG a boost (10 of his 17 makes are from beyond), but....dayum. 94.1% of those makes are assisted, so he's doing exactly what we think he's doing. Catch-and-shoot, ya'll.

Now let's see what happens when we cut it down to just crunch time. The game is in single digits and there's less than five minutes left. Let's give it a look.

  1. Boss - 28 FGA, 71.4% eFG
  2. Jrue - 19 FGA, 73.7% eFG
  3. Dre - 18 FGA, 44.4% eFG
  4. Thad - 9 FGA, 44.4% eFG
  5. Brand - 8 FGA, 50.0% eFG

No surprise, the ball is with the guards at all times. Here's what jumps out at me.

  • Jrue and Lou are absolutely filthy with the game on the line. Like: somebody start scrubbing them because they really need a bath.
  • Between Lou/Jrue/Dre, only 11 out of the 36 field goals were assisted. Over two-thirds of their buckets have come from isolation plays. Not a great stat, but it's (begrudgingly) working for Jrue and Lou. Not so much for Dre.
  • Jodie Meeks becomes invisible. He's attempted three shots in the last 5 minutes of a game when it's in single digits. Not nearly enough. It means they aren't working the ball around and finding open shooters.
  • Any big men want to take a shot? No? K thanks.

This exercise doesn't tell us much more than we already knew, but it's good to check in with the statistics every so often to see if they jive with popular opinion. The Sixers could really use a low post presence to go to in the meat/taters of the game, but once Spencer Hawes gets back, things *should* be able to flow more.

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You probabaly need to throw in some additional stats to get a better picture:

TS% (takes into account FT’s)
FT% in 4th and crunch
TO’s
Assists

You numbers tell us who is shooting best but that does not tell us who is drawing fouls, hitting FT’s, setting their teammates up or turning it over and ending up in the DougHouse.

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

They don’t have those numbers available in the shot finder, unfortunately.

by Jordan Sams on Feb 16, 2012 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

But 82games.com just got updated to 2/15. That will give you “crunch time” and regular stats fro these players.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11PHI4.HTM#clutch

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

So for Jrue in “clutch time”: (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points)

Has played 99% of available clutch time minutes.
28.8pts/48min
79.5%eFG%
75% eFG% on jumpers (83% of his total shots taken), none blocked
67% of his clutch time shots occur in the final 8 sec of the shot clock. eFG% 87% on these shots.

Draws fouls 7.7% of his possessions, Made 5 of 6 FT’s

4.8asst/48min
4 assists (all for jump shots)
3 TO’s: 2 passing, 1 ball handling

1 total rebound (0/36 O-Board chances, 1/42 D-Boards chances)

Team Ratings: Ortg:103.3 DRtg: 94.9

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Lou, Clutch Time

So for Jrue in “clutch time”: (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left,
neither team ahead by more than 5 points)

Has played 59% of available clutch time minutes.
55.9pts/48min
59.4%eFG%
63.3% eFG% on jumpers (94% of his total shots taken), none blocked
25% of his clutch time shots occur in the final 8 sec of the shot clock. eFG% 50% on these shots.
69% of his shots are generated in the 1st 10 sec of the shot clock, with an eFG% of 59%

Draws fouls 11.1% of his possessions, Made 9 of 10 FT’s

2 asst/48min
1 assists(inside)
2 TO’s: 1 passing, 1 ball handling

3 total rebound (0/24 O-Board chances, 3/29 D-Boards chances)

Team Ratings: Ortg:103.8 DRtg: 79.8 Team +12 overall (was +7 for Jrue)

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry, should read “for Lou”

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

So Jrue shoots better, despite having to take almost all of his shots late in the shot-clock.

Lou scores at an insanely Bossy rate at a reasonably good percentage and draws fouls.

Neither player generates assists or rebounds. Meither gets blocked or turns the ball over that much.

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:38 PM PST up reply actions  

at a rate of 56 points per 48 minutes? dayum.

by Dan Pearson on Feb 16, 2012 6:51 PM PST up reply actions  

For ET

I won’t list them all: http://www.82games.com/1112/11PHI4.HTM#clutch

Plays 53% of available clutch minutes (almost the same as Lou)
Team is a net 13 during ET’s clutch minutes (+12 for Lou, +7 for Jrue so Jrue is actually +20 in the clutch when Et is on the bench, but -13 when he is teamed with Turner)

The team’s rtg’s are terrible:
Off 95.8
Def 124.7

He scores 13.4 pts/48min, shooting an eFG% of 33%.
All of his shots have been jumpers. 1/3 early in the clock, 2/3 late. All have been “assisted” meaning he has never drove in clutch time to create a shot. But he has drawn 2 FT’s(making both) meaning he draws FT’s 14% of his possessions.

He has 1 assist for a dunk. One passing TO and one offensive foul.
Grabbed 0/21 OBoards, 3/17 available DBoards.)

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Should read: net negative 13 for the team +/-

So basically when ET is in clutch time he is relegated to shooting (missing) long jumpers. He has drawn fouls, but only gone to the line for 2 FTA in about 22 minutes (small sample size for the entire team.) Overall, the team, has played poorly the minutes during clutch time where ET has gotten.

Again, this is all a small sample size. The team has a grand total of only about 40 minutes of “clutch time” all year. Jrue has played every minute. ET and Lou have each played about 1/2 of that time. The team has been dramatically more successful in Lou’s minutes as compared to ET’s.

This is like stocks. Past performance does not predict future success or failure. I would expect that ET has the skill set and style to become a very effective player in late game setting. But he has not been so in his limited opportunity this year. I will leave it to you to assign blame for this. i assign no blame, just throw the numbers out there ans then watch to see what happens in the future.

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry, not trying to be critical.

by tk76 on Feb 16, 2012 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Figures...

…Levin plays pinochle. All Jewish guys play pinochle. Many was the hour I wasted in the student center in college playing pinochle when I should have been in class.

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 16, 2012 11:42 AM PST reply actions  

Which, of course, is why I had to go to law school at Temple instead of Penn :D

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 16, 2012 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

If I could have back all the hours I wasted playing pinochle in college and bill them out at my current hourly rate, I would be able to retire. And spend all my time playing pinochle, of course. :D

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 16, 2012 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I’m feeling another Curmudgeon’s Corner coming on (I have a rare evening more or less off)….

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 16, 2012 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

What’s trump? I got a marriage in hearts.

"I asked for Shaq. They gave me Shackleford."

http://whereisbenrivera.posterous.com/

by Dave Rueter on Feb 16, 2012 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

This love affair continues. We’re going to have a LB Pinochle Night! We need a 4th! WHO CLAIMS THE SPOT?! I’m banking on TK being a player.

by Michael Levin on Feb 17, 2012 10:05 AM PST up reply actions  

No, but I can probably pick it up. My 91 year grandmother is still playing Bridge for money… Or we could just play rummycub.

by tk76 on Feb 17, 2012 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I can’t really stand the “closer” nonsense either. I guess it comes down to coaches wanting a guaranteed (not always true) shot attempt over running a play that will most likely get you a better shot but there is more of a chance of error and losing the ball, etc.
I love what Doc Rivers draws up at the end of games, he generally runs plays or he will put it in Pierces hands. I want to say that the Spurs generally run plays in late game situations too. Love me some Doc Rivers and Greg Popovich. Obviously they’re both as veteran teams as your going to get but still I agree running a play is the way to go.

Anyone else disagree with the notion that Lebron can’t “close”? He won a ton of games in Cleveland where he was literally the catalyst of everything they did ( early, mid, late-game) and I watched him dominate games late. All of the sudden he gets put in awkward late-game situations with Dwayne Wade taking awful iso-jumpers and he’s all of the sudden a choker? Understand he had a bad series in the finals and maybe he misses free throws late but I personally think it’s pretty ridiculous.

by jrb5094 on Feb 16, 2012 6:24 PM PST reply actions  

LeBron clearly sucks, and a a punishment for being a choker, a coward, and quitting on his team, should be traded someplace not nearly as sexy as Miami…I’m thinking send Nocioni’s expiring plus the Speezy trade exception, and maybe Tha BOSS. I’m too lazy to actually check those numbers in the Trade Machine, but I’m thinking it should be pretty close. LeBron is big enough to play some minutes at PF, so he could probably co-exist with Iguodala. Could you imagine the defense…send out Jrue/Turner/Iguodala/Bron/Any tall stiff and that’s some serious LAWAD action right there, that is… :D

I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, there will be no trade for Monta!

by dweebowitz on Feb 16, 2012 7:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Serious LAWAD. I would probably go on a month long bender if that trade happened

by jrb5094 on Feb 16, 2012 8:25 PM PST reply actions  

reply fail to dweeb lol

by jrb5094 on Feb 16, 2012 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

It’s best if the other team doesn’t know who you’re going to with the last shot. I.E. If everyone is keying on Lou, make the play for someone else who’s going to be open because they’re worried about Lou!

Lou is better than Andre because if there’s a foul, Lou is more likely to hit them. The other thing is you should go to whoever has been “hot” during the game. If Jrue is shooting 1-7 I’m not going to look to him to shoot it.

I agree a real “Play” would be better, the Sixers seen to lack discipline at the end, right when they need it the most. There is no one play that the team seems great at, one that’s going to result in a score and/or a foul. Hawes should help, what a slacker!

by RickoT on Feb 17, 2012 12:15 PM PST reply actions  

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