The Sixers Are Bad Foul Shooters, But It Doesn't Matter Much

by Michael Levin on Feb 11, 2012 12:35 PM PST in Philadelphia 76ers Stat Stuff

As I said last week, the Sixers need to get to the line more. They're near the bottom of the league in free throw rate, and for a team that wins as often as they do, history says it's unsustainable that they'll continue winning as much as they have. But as everyone has pointed out, not only are the Sixers bad at getting to the line, they're pretty terrible at making the shots when they're there also.

The league average in foul shooting is 74.7%. The Sixers are ranked 27th at an average of 71.5%. That's bad. OK. They've made 363 out of the 508 foul shots they've taken. In order to get to league average, they would have had to make 379 of those free throws, a difference of 16 makes. So basically, the Sixers are 16 points behind where the average is in the league. That isn't much. In fact, that's barely anything.

The Sixers have played 27 games. If you were to distribute those 16 makes over 27 games, they'd have an extra point in every game but 11. The Sixers have lost only one game by one point (last night against the Clippers) and they lost it because Chris Paul made an unbelievable shot. I'll give them the overtime game against the Nuggets as well, since it was tied at the end of regulation and the one point would have THEORETICALLY put them over the edge. You can't assume that if a shot went in, the game would have played out the same way (it wouldn't) but for this exercise we can.

16 points is not a reason to think the Sixers are worse than they actually are. The fact that the Heat have taken over 200 more foul shots than the Sixers have is a better one.

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That’s an interesting break down of the foul shooting. I know its very frustrating watching the games as they continually seem to go 1-2 on every trip to the line, but the numbers show that it has had very little effect on the teams record thus far. Also, and I know this isnt something the Sixers can control, but their opponents are only shooting 71.2% from the foul line against them. So the Sixers do shoot better from the line then their opponents.

by ark88 on Feb 11, 2012 1:26 PM PST reply actions

If the Sixers could hit their free throws late in games, we maybe win 2-3 close ones we’ve already lost at this point thus far in the season. Considering we are about to start playing more on the road, those missed free throws might haunt us more often if we continue to miss going forward.
And that’s not even taking into account the post season, when every point is precious.

Those handful of games are the difference between a couple spots in playoff seeding, or potentially what round we exit in the playoffs.

by wannabgm on Feb 11, 2012 10:44 PM PST up reply actions

people say they lost last night cause of free throws (including me), but i looked back, and both of them went around 65 percent shooting

I hear you got quarterback problems i feel bad for you son...
i got 99 problems but vince aint one

by XxActionJacksonxX on Feb 11, 2012 1:41 PM PST reply actions

We missed a couple late in the game…..as usual. I don’t much care what the other team shoots. We need to worry about whether or not we can hit them.

by wannabgm on Feb 11, 2012 10:40 PM PST up reply actions

Very interesting take on this issue, which I felt was a catastrophe of epic proportions until now. Here is another great example of why I’m so glad I found this blog. Michael Levin, you have single-handedly saved me from banging my head into a wall listening to Sixers fans on sports radio. There are so many very intelligent fans who regularly contribute at Liberty Ballers. It is so refreshing. Levin, you are my man-crush.

by Blunt Philly Guy on Feb 11, 2012 5:04 PM PST via iPhone app reply actions