Sixers Vs. Clippers Preview: Lob City Comes To Philly
by Jordan Sams on Feb 10, 2012 5:01 AM PST
in Philadelphia 76ers Previews
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PrintThe 18-8 Philadelphia 76ers will be looking to avenge a recent loss to the San Antonio Spurs as they face off against Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and the 15-8 Los Clippers tonight. Like the Sixers, the Clippers are also coming off a loss, to the Cleveland Cavilers, on Wednesday night. Tonight's game represents the fourth of a seven-game road trip for the Clippers. For the Sixers, this the seventh of a season-defining eight-game stretch, in which they're 4-2 thus far.
Jrue Holiday and the Sixers were manhandled by Tony Parker in their Wednesday night loss, and it won't get any easier when the best point guard in the NBA, Chris Paul, enters the Wells Fargo Cenger. After being traded to the Lakers during the off-season, then sent back to the Hornets, only to be traded to the Clippers a few days later, Paul is having an unbelievable season and, along with Blake Griffin, has turned the perpetual losers, the LA Clippers, into a first place team and serious title contender.
CP3 ranks third overall in PER, fourth among PGs in true shooting percentage, third overall in assist rate, third overall in steal percentage and third among qualified players in win shares per 48. He also leads the league in assist:turnover ratio at 4:3:1. Any way you slice it, Paul is the best point guard in the league and neck-and-neck with LeBron as frontrunner for MVP. Jrue Holiday and the Sixers D are going to have their handful tonight, especially after their abysmal showing against Tony Parker.
Injuries
For the Clippers, Chauncey Billups is out for the season with an Achillies injury and Eric Bledsoe is questionable with a knee injury. For the Sixers, Spencer Hawes will probably miss the game with an Achillies injury of his own.
Team Stats
The Clippers rank in the top 10 in: assist rate (8th), turnover rate (5th), effective field goal percentage (4th), true shooting percentage (6th) and offensive efficiency (5th). They rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency (24th) and defensive rebounding (21st).
The Sixers first-ranked defense will need to be on point tonight, because Chris Paul executes the Clippers' offensive almost flawlessly. Luckily, the Clippers are a relatively weak defensive team. They also have the second worst scoring bench in the league, behind the Lakers, and they just lost their second-leading bench scorer when Foye replaced the injured Billups in the starting lineup. Advantage: Night Shift
Another stat to keep an eye on is free throw rate. As Mike pointed out earlier this week, the Sixers are historically bad. The Clippers are seventh in the league in FTR, but allow the third highest FTR amongst opponents. This is a great time for the Sixers to get healthy at the line. The Clippers allow a lot of free points, so the Sixers need to take advantage.
Big Men
Derrick Favors, Gasol and Bynum, Kris Humphries, Duncan and Spliiter – the Sixers have been used and abused by big men all season long. The Clippers' front line of Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, newly-signed Kenyon Martin and former fan favorite, Reggie Evans, present a lethal combination of size, hustle, talent, athleticism and rebounding.
Rookies Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy Allen were blatantly exposed by the Spurs and Hawes won't suit up tonight. It may be in the Sixers best interest to play Brand at center and Thad at the four, to try and counter the Clippers' size with speed, if Vucevic and Allen perform anything like they did against San Antonio.
Conclusion
I haven't watched too many Clippers games this season and they seem to be a difficult team to get a read on. They're 10-3 at home and 5-5 on the road. They're still adjusting to Paul and vice versa. They recently had an impressive four-game winning streak with consecutive wins over the Nuggets (in Denver), the Thunder (blowout) and in Utah against the Jazz, but they just dropped one to the Cavs. Nonetheless, the Clippers are a talented bunch and I'm kinda surprised they're not better defensively or on the defensive glass. After witnessing what Parker and Splitter did to the Sixers less than 48 hours ago, I cringe at the thought of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin running pick n' rolls.
Hopefully the huge discrepancy in the teams' benches, paired with the Billups injury, the Clippers' below average defense and the fatigue involved with the middle game during a seven-game roadie pave the way for a Sixers win.
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This is actually a decent matchup for Philly’s bigs because the Clippers bigs (outside of Martin), don’t make any shots from outside the paint. Only 32% of Griffin’s attempts come from outside 10 feet, and more importantly only 22% of his makes come outside of 10 feet (shooting 37%). Of DeAndre Jordan’s 117 attempts this year, only 5 have come from outside of 10 feet.
That being said, most of those attempts come at the rim off of Chris Paul PnR action. They are #1 in the league in PnR BH action according to synergy, with about .93 PPP, they are middle of the pack in roll man scoring (.94). The 76ers are #1 in the league in defending PnR (.63 PPP) and #16 in roll action (.97), but gave up .87 PPP in PnR ball handler situations and a whopping 1.67 PPP in roll situations (Splitter!).
Griffin scores .92 PPP as a roll man, while Jordan scores 1.37 PPP (!!).
So, it’s going to come down to the PnR defense working as a unit in order to stop CP3 from getting in the lane and causing havoc. Considering they got torched by this 2 days ago, they most likely practiced it a ton in the interim, so I’d hope to see some improvement here. Considering Caron Butler is primarily a spot up shooter (52% of attempts and makes in spot up situations), it might be wise to have Andre check Chris Paul on key possessions and allow him to make the over/under pnr decision. Having a taller defender on him (and trapping off the pnr) might make the pass much more difficult for Paul.
It ain't rock, it ain't roll, if we don't disagree
by mrprice33 on Feb 10, 2012 5:34 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Wouldn’t Paul just be able to blow by Dre? Obviously Iggy is a great defender, but Paul is one of the quickest players in the game and Iguodola may not be able to keep up with him (though this is really more of a question).
twitter: @awlang
Paul is quicker than he is fast, and he’s crafty. Straight-line speed isn’t his forte. If we’re going to trap off the PnR (which would be my strategy since LA’s bigs can’t shoot) you’d want to make it as difficult as possible for Paul to see over the trap. Dre would accomplish that.
It ain't rock, it ain't roll, if we don't disagree
Thanks again for posting
Vuce and Lavoy practicing foul shots in the background. Love that. How about one practice dedicated only to free throws, Doug?
by PhillyWarrior on Feb 10, 2012 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
Sixers are 4 point favorites and per simulations have a 70% chance of winning the game. I’d say that plays out tonight and the sixers cover, winning by 10. To me, this isn’t a team to fear. They barely have a positive point differential (only 1.8) and like the sixers have played the vast majority of their games at home. The sixers are just the better team here and should win.
In spite of getting abused by the Spurs front line, Vuce and Allen simply need more time and experience. Controlling the Clippers pick and roll scoring will be key for the Sixers, but more importantly, I’d like to see the offense perk up a bit. The team seems to have lost a bit of it’s offensive flow and continuity and need to get back to being patient on offense. It’s nice to have players like Williams and Turner and Iguodala who can create their own shot, but the primary emphasis for the Sixers is ball-motion. No team blows out the Sixers by scoring 120 or so. Most teams can’t even score 100 on the Sixers and when the Sixers are scoring well, their defense really puts more pressure on most teams than they can handle.
I don’t like the team playing from behind, as they seem to have trouble getting stops just when they need them. It would be nice for the pressure to be on the other team to score, rather that the Sixers.
Jrue has to be more decisive on the Pick and Roll
If he keeps making the wrong decisions, I don’t see how we can win this game. It is impossible to box out Griffin, so the best you can do is try to gang rebound with the guards.
Big game for Jrue.
He’s going to have to limit cp3 tonight if we want to win, hopefully he bounces back well from the loss against Tony Parker and the Spurs. Also, FREE ET.
I’m excited. I haven’t watched a single LAC game all year. Too bad Hawes isn’t playing :( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WCQw59JX_4
Formerly known as The Pied Piper
Great when brand took out griffin last year. Tough time reading this game. I’ve watched a few clippers games and if you can control chris paul and the lobs ( no easy task) they don’t get too many easy buckets. Griffins post game still needs work but its improving. This game has tony battie written all over it with their big guys (sigh)
by jrb5094 on Feb 10, 2012 11:47 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Section 208
This’ll will be my 3rd game of the year.
by phillyhoosfan on Feb 10, 2012 2:59 PM PST via Android app reply actions
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