Sixers Vs. Bulls Preview: The Best Team In The NBA
by Jordan Sams on Jan 31, 2012 9:40 PM PST
in Philadelphia 76ers Previews
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PrintTonight the 15-6 Philadelphia 76ers will host the team with the best record in the NBA, the Chicago Bulls, in a game I've had circled on my calendar for a long time. As we've discussed ad nauseam, despite their 15-6 record and 4.5 game lead in the Atlantic division, no one believes this Sixers team is as good as their record or superlatives say they are.
The Sixers are destroying bad teams, sure, but they have yet to win a close game (1-4 in games decided by 7 points or less) or defeat an elite team. Beating the Blazers in Portland would've been impressive. They lost. Beating the Knicks in The Garden on the third game of a tripleback would've been impressive. They lost. Beating the Nuggets would've been impressive. They lost. Beating the Heat in Miami on the second of a back-to-back would've been damn impressive. They were blown out. Their only semi-impressive wins were against the Pacers (without Danny Granger), the Hawks and Monday night against the Magic. Normally beating the Magic would qualify as an impressive win, but that team is visibly in shambles and losing to everybody these days.
The Sixers still own the league's weakest schedule and severely lack a marquee victory to hush the "they haven't beaten anybody" whispers, which grow stronger with every game. A win tonight, against Derrick Rose and the Bulls, would certainly qualify as a marquee victory. Are the Sixers up for the task?
Injuries
First things first, the Bulls are healthy ... well, almost. Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton both missed Monday's game, and Rip appears to be out a while, but Deng is listed as day-to-day and may return to the starting lineup tonight. Point is, the Bulls are healthy enough, to where there should be no excuses if the Sixers win. They still have Derrick Rose and eight of their top nine players in terms of win shares, even without Deng. And the Sixers will probably be without Spencer Hawes again. Short rest is no excuse either because both teams last played on Monday.
Jrue vs. Rose
The Sixers second best perimeter defender, Jrue Holiday, has the all-world talent to be elite defensively, but the third year point guard is still fairly inconsistent and has yet to put it – whatever "it" is – all together. But the talent is there and Sixers fans have seen Jrue lock down some the league's best for stretches, whether for a few possessions, a quarter, or a game. Tonight he'll face the ultimate challenge of defending the reigning NBA MVP and arguably the best point guard in the game.
Defense and Rebounding
Statistically, he Sixers are the best defensive team in the league, but the Bulls are the second best. The Bulls are also the best rebounding team in the NBA, where the Sixers rank 17th. Likely without Spencer Hawes for the ninth consecutive game, the Sixers will need Herculean efforts from the likes of Tony Battie, Nikola Vucevic, Lavoy Allen, Elton Brand and possibly Sisqo Elson to keep the Bulls off the glass. Omer Asik, Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer are all above average on the defensive side of rebounding. Noah and Asik, along with Taj Gibson, excel on the offensive end.
Keys to the Game
- Can Jrue slow down Rose? Certainly no easy task, but if Jrue holds Rose to a sub-par game, for Rose's standards, the Sixers may have a chance.
- Can the Sixers withstand the Bulls advantage in rebounding? Remember when Kris Humphies, Shawne Williams and Shelden Williams murdered the Hawe-less Sixers on the glass last week, which along with Deron Williams, ultimately led to a Nets win? Well, the Nets were nowhere near the rebounding team the Bulls are, and if the Sixers are held anywhere near the 45.1 total rebounding percentage they had against the Nets, they'll lose tonight's game by 30.
- Can the Sixers manage enough points against the Bulls' defense? The Sixers average 103 points per game with Spencer Hawes and 91 when he doesn't suit up. The Bulls give up an average of 87 points per game. The Bulls have Derrick Rose, who runs the fourth most efficient offense in the league. I don't care how well the Sixers defend, their offense is going to have to produce tonight, Hawes or no Hawes.
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Dre on Rose
I can’t remember how much time Igoudala spent, if any, on Rose last year … anyone recall?
I know Korver/Brewer at 2 is a big size mismatch with Jrue, but if Jrue gets lazy early and Rose starts killing us, I think you move Iggy on Rose, Turner on the 2, and let the others play out depending on whether Chicago goes big late.
This is all assuming Deng doesn’t play, in that case does Iggy have to stick w/ him?
Should be interesting.
Oh God no
There’s this myth that exists in some realms that Iguodala can defend any position on the perimeter. He can defend bigger stronger wings who like to shoot over people exceptionally well. He cannot, however, defend true guards who are comfortable dribbling all over the place. Iguodala will just get dribbled into screens or have his ankles broken. If Jrue isn’t up to the task, then call a priest. Otherwise, ET can do a respectable job for short stretch on Rose sometimes.
Doug, if you are listening…..please for the love of God do not put Jodie on Rose.
Anyway, you defend Rose as a team, of course. So someone better tell Big Nik to not jump out too aggressively when defending the high screen. I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say Rose can blow by Vucevic on his way to the hole. Nik better flash and sag, with an emphasis on SAG.
He was abused by Andre Miller late in the game too.
And Wade as well.
Iguodala is not built to defend those types of players. Jrue is, yet Collins decides to partially give the game away every time he puts Iguodala in that late game role. A heady ball handler will just dribble Iguodala into a screen in that situation and end up defended by Meeks or Thad instead.
Bulls fan here
First things first, the Bulls are healthy … well, almost. Luol Deng and Richard Hamilton both missed Monday’s game, and Rip appears to be out a while
Since when did, “missing two-fifths of your starting lineup” qualify as “healthy”? Not to mention Rose, Noah, Gibson and CJ all playing through various maladies. And I don’t say that to make an excuse if the Bulls lost, but let’s just be real, they aren’t healthy by any measure at the moment.
But that’s ok, neither is your team. Hawes was probably your second best player, and possible most valuable offensive player when he went down. Not to mention being a big guy on a team that lacks depth in that area. So yeah, both squads are dinged up at the moment.
I think it should be a great game. I find it kinda silly that people would question the Sixers, saying “they haven’t beat anybody”, even though them winning isn’t really something new. After about 20 or so games last year, weren’t they one of the best teams in the league?
In three meetings last year, we kicked your ass once, but the next two times you won, and played the Bulls and Rose about as good as anyone I saw all year. The perimeter athleticism was giving him a lot of trouble. They were blitzing, and trapping to get the ball out of his hands, and it took them completely out of their offense. Combine that with the fact the Bulls struggle to defend teams that don’t have a primary scorer, and tend to move the ball a lot, and this is a very difficult matchup for them.
The trapping is where we might lose this game tomorrow. Again, not to make excuses, because I think when both teams are at full health this is still a very good matchup, but the loss of Rip and Luol is gonna hurt us against your defense. Our offense has hummed with both those guys healthy, but we’re gonna struggle to score when you up the ball pressure on Rose, and he has no other perimeter players to go to to make plays.
Unless your guys are really hitting from three, I anticipate a very close game. Our defense and rebounding will keep us in it, Rose is gonna be pissed after losing to Miami this week, and he’ll no doubt remember the Sixers winning the last two games last season. So the Bulls will be motivated.
Anyways sorry for the mini rant, thought I’d just give an outsider’s perspective. I really like your squad, looking forward to some good battles this year. If we can’t beat those d-bags in South Beach, hopefully you can.
Injuries. Fuck.
Best outsider post that I’ve read on this site; thanks for that.
by The Crooked Man on Feb 1, 2012 5:48 AM PST up reply actions
Good post. I mostly agree. Looking back over the past 82+ games (after Philly’s weak start right when Collins took over) the Bulls have been a 60+ win team and the Sixers have been a 5- win team. So the Sixers are good and the Bulls are contenders.
So you sort of expect a good match-up, with either team being able to win on a given night but the Bulls being a heavy favorite in a series.
It is interesting looking at both teams ascension these past few years. The Bulls were stuck at at Sixer-like .500 for 2 seasons before they exploded on the scene last season. The Sxiers are trying to replicate that type of emergence this season- but without a superstar or a big name FA signing.
You don’t think Chicago would be a heavy favorite in a 7 game series?
You have to look beyond Vegas for a moment. A lot of the line is driven by the SIxers history against the spread over the past several years. They have punished the spread this year- but have also had some interesting trends against the spread going back a few seasons- especially as a road dog.
Agree with everything you say except Rip kinda blows at this point in his career. Getting him out of the lineup is a gift.
Have you watched him with the Bulls this year?
I was skeptical of the signing, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been a revelation. I’m still wondering if he can keep healthy, though.
Very much disagree with thoughts on Rip. He looked quite nice in their lineup. Also don’t think John Lucas III’s minutes are doing anything to hold them over in his absence.
by andyreidswaistline on Feb 1, 2012 10:27 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Ehh I don’t think so. Yes he put up 22ppg but at below average efficiency for a SG. His TS% is 49.7% (average is 52.5%). He also was below average in getting to the foul line, rebounding, turnovers, personal fouls, and gives you next to nothing defensively. The only thing he did above average for a SG was assists, so I guess that’s something. The total package = gaaaaabage.
I think we match up decently against you guys. The difference maker in my opinion is your guys offensive rebounding. Boozer, Noah, Asik, and Gibson are all really good, tenacious rebounders that are really tough to keep off the glass. Add in the fact that our frontcourt is really thin and we could be in a lot of trouble.
Very excited to watch tonight.
I am very afraid we might get toasted (by 18 or something in that ballpark).
This is THE test!
Ball Movement...
Without Hawes in the lineup the sixers tend to get into a BOSSIAN (yes I made up a new word) type of offense. They struggle to move the ball around and switch sides to create open shots. Against bad defenses they can get away with this but against the Bulls, who will no doubt want to make this a half court game, they will struggle.
They can’t afford to have Jrue, Lou (biggest culprit), or Iggy dribbling out the shot clock and shooting a contested long two. The Bulls will run away with this one if that happens.
Flash you bigs to the middle and work off cuts. The guards really have to drive to the basket in this one, except for Jodie of course. When willing, Jrue and ET are the best drivers on this team and will be the difference makers on offense in tonight’s game. Although, I have a feeling ET might ride the pine if he makes an early mistake.
Sixers a 2 point underdog. If they they lose by 2, I think I would still put them in the “legit” category.
This game will certainly impact the national perception of the team. Either reinforcing or silencing the doubters.
But I don’t really think it will tell us all that much given the Sixers have beaten good teams on and off over the past few years. So one win at home while the team has been flying high (or one dud of a loss) does not mean all that much in the big picture.
IMO the biggest issue for the Sixers over the past 5 seasons has been streakiness. They have had many long stretches where they play .600 ball for a month or more at a time- even looking back to the immediate post-AI team that won 18 of 25 to close the season. When they are hot they have put up some improessive wins (although none yet this season.) So the question is not can they beat an elite team, but whether they have put their past inconsistency behind them.
Their record of 53-34 over the past 87 games suggests that they are finally taking that next step- but this season is still early.
Jrue, its all on you
The good news is Jrue tends to play to his competition. I expect him to bring his a-game, he knows he’s the guy on Rose (Iggy is a great wing defender, but only a decent point defender, he’s fast but not Wall/Irving/Rose fast) and he ought to be prepared.
Quick trivia question:
Name every current Sixer who has a better defensive rebounding rate than Brand.
Kind of think we should slow down with the whole ‘’win this game and we’re for real" thing. Don’t get me wrong this would be a really good win, our best win of the year to this point,. I guess you have to define “for real” and “legitimate” to me. I think we are an above average top 10 team in the league. Which is great. I don’t think we are a contender though, even if we win this game.
kind of think...
it would taking going 8-0 over this wicked stretch for someone like you to consider them a contender, and even then i’m betting you’d be like “they’re just on a hot streak, it’s all luck”. The sixers don’t have a “super-star” so you doubt… take this same team and replace brand’s 18 PER, with a player with 24 PER at the same position, and subtract that 6 PER difference evenely from the rest of the roster. Now give that team the same record, all of a sudden, they’re contenders right? PSH
Haha yea you got me all figured out.
by jrb5094 on Feb 1, 2012 3:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with this. It’s a good test early on, but whether the Sixers win by 20 or lose by 20, it’s still just one game.
by Michael Levin on Feb 1, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
yes and no, don’t be deluded into thinking this game doesn’t matter… it does, but it’s probably more about the way it plays out rather then the final score. And I agree, one game doesn’t make the season, but you’ve both neglected the thought that to this point, based on statistics and their record, the sixers look like contenders. The only REAL thing keeping them from that is the lack of “quality wins” and this stretch of 8 games would provide that. I really believe if the sixers can manage to take 5 or more of these 8, they’re contenders… unequivocally… (while i prefer to see them stomp the bulls and heat back to back, it’s really more about how they do over the whole 8 game stretch).
Every game matters, this is a chance for the Sixers to beat a very good team but if they play extremely well, they’re not championship contenders. If they play like assjuice, they’re not lottery-bound. You have to take each game as just one game.
by Michael Levin on Feb 1, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
inside source
i have an inside source at wip… it’ll come out shortly
by mkellyrutgers on Feb 1, 2012 12:20 PM PST up reply actions
them missing Deng and Noah is equivalant to us missing Hawes and getting a 1/2 Vuc (if at all). Those 2 players may not be even exactly, but since both ours play the same position it gives the sixers a bonus on the scale.
I think this is a pretty even injury situation. And we should be favorites, we have one more loss, that’s it, and it’s on our home court where we’re what, 10-1?
That's what I'm talking about
Hawes was arguably our most valuable player when he got hurt. Vuc, a ROOKIE who was replacing him, was making a hustle play when he got hurt. We beat Orlando with a 2nd ROUND ROOKIE getting the bulk of the big minutes. And people still want to play the “injury card”? I say cram it. If other teams want to whine about injuries, well then maybe they should have invested in deeper rosters like we did. No more excuses. No more “wait and see”. I swear, after years of being the very definition of mediocrity, we have an exciting team here and all people want to do is wait…wait for what? It’s a short season, after tonight it will be 1/3 the way through for the Sixers, and they’ve given me PLENTY to get excited about. Three more hours til tip-off!
by Three on Feb 1, 2012 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 5 recs
This is a small thing
But OKC has the best record and the best road record in the NBA.
Only 6th in efficiency differential though (better predictor for future performance than pure win-loss). If you adjust for schedule, they are actually 9th in eff. diff. I’m not particularly impressed with them so far even with the great record. Westbrook has been average and Perkins has been straight bad.
According to Meredith
Deng is a no go tonight. That really depletes their front court, which I guess is nice since our front court is also very depleted.
Just talkin about practice
Follow me on Twitter - @Teachin2daChoir
I meant both
Deng is a pretty tall SF, they are losing height
Just talkin about practice
Follow me on Twitter - @Teachin2daChoir
by The Mad Hopper on Feb 1, 2012 3:07 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting stat:
3 teams have bench scoring 42+ pts per game. The next closest team is <29pts.
Those teams (PHL, DAL, DEN) combines W/L is 42-21.
Hmm that is interesting. I just hope what we’re seeing is not fool’s gold, in that with a full offseason and regular scheduling of games the bench isn’t as productive. But whatever, who cares, I’m all in on this season.
I dont think its unsustainable at all
15 pts for Lou, 12 for Thad, 10 for Turner and 5 pts for the rest of the guys put together. Seems about right.
Normally beating the Magic would qualify as an impressive win, but that team is visibly in shambles and losing to everybody these days.
All teams go in ruts. The heat had a five game losing streak last year mid-way through the season. These things happen. Had the sixers beaten the heat during that five game stretch, would that not have counted as a quality win?
The sixers are a good team, whether we want to admit it or not.
"If Iguodala were a legitimate "true" 17 PPG scorer, we’d be a better team. When at least 8 of those points come off the fast break, his true offensive production is a reality: 8-11 PPG." - LeQuan Glover
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