Re-Assessing the Sixers After The Three Game Test

I think the brutal stretch should show us something, finally. You figure they’ll be something like 15-5 when they start, and they will still be over .500 when it’s over. It’s just whether they are 15-12 or something better. I’m thinking maybe 2-5 over that seven game stretch. They can beat Atlanta and, I believe, the Lakers as currently constituted (they’re just not playing that well, and Kobe is doing his “Teammates? What teammates?” routine). I don’t see one other team that looks even like a possibility, based on what I’ve seen so far, although they could surprise us and beat someone like the Spurs, if the Spurs are coming off a back-to-back or something, given the age of their best players.

But they are not beating Blacque Hawes, Chicago, or Miami for certain, and probably not the Clippers either, although I’m not positive about them, either. They seem almost as inconsistent as the Sixers, although infinitely more talented.

So, somewhere between 16-11 and 18-9 is their record at the end of the stretch. If they don’t slip up and lose to one of the bottom feeders. To their credit, they do seem to beat the teams they are supposed to beat.

As far as Brandon Jennings goes, I’ve never been a fan. I think a huge part of his reputation came from that one 55 point game. He’s a little Lou Williams-esque, as I see him, and you know how I feel about Tha BOSS :D

Overall, I am pretty disappointed at the results of this 3-game span. I had it marked on the calendar and was really looking forward to this test. The Denver game was an absolute killer. The ATL game was a win but for whatever reason it didn’t feel like a win to me (I think I was still pissed at the Denver game). All I wanted from the Miami game was for the team to compete for four quarters. And they didn’t do that.

Thumbs up to Evan Turner, Brand (for the most part), and Vuce.

Thumbs down to Collins, Holiday, and Thad (good for two but a BIG no-show in Miami)

Sorry…I didn’t think they competed in all four quarters. I thought they were great in the first half especially ET. But the injuries, and getting nothing from Thad took some of the wind out of their sails for the second half. The game was over rather early. What game were you watching?

Overall I’m pretty pleased where we’re at. We play a good style of basketball, consistent defense night in and night out with balanced scoring. As far as the are we legit, do we have any legitimate wins question, I don’t know. As Jordan said above I don’t think we’re an elite team with a shot at a title, but I too consider us one of the better teams in the league and we’re competing night in and night out so that’s good enough for me.

Plus Evan Turner, the number 2 pick and former national player of the year is finally getting some consistent minutes. I don’t really understand why Collins just doesn’t play him more. I’m tebowing that his minutes continue to go up and his role on the team expands significantly by the end of this season.

I expect Turner to continue to improve this season, and a lot of that has to be attributed to the way Doug has kept him on a “shorter leash”, even though it was seemingly inexplicable that he didn’t see more time in the third. That being said it’s nearly impossible to beat the heat when bosh/lebron play like that so the loss can’t be put completely on doug and the rotations.

Michael, awesome idea for the link to that jennings article. It puts our young core in perspective when you can easily see other teams being forced to make similar decisions. I definitely like the jrue/turner potential over jennings as a franchise player, because I don’t think he can get to the iverson level.

no references to litmus tests, please.
It’s unchecked hyperbole…like "giving 110%". A litmus test provides clear, objective affirmation of a condition, or lack thereof. No 3 game stretch can do that for any team. If sixers lose in triple OT, are they inarguably worse than their opponents? We should treat 3 game stretches like baseball series. In this case, the sixers have an upcoming series against a good opponent. Winning 2 would be nice. One is disappointing but not the end of the world. 3 or 0 are quite unlikely. 3 would be great but it doesn’t mean we’re a colosus going forward. 0 would suck but it doesn’t indicate We Suck.
Blunt Philly Guy | Posted 5 days ago

At 16 games into the season I think we can start to draw conclusions from what a team is. I think basketball is the most consistent of any sport and players are, more than not, what they are at the beginning and end of a season. You usually don’t see massive collapses and regressions as you might see in baseball for instance.

Having said that, A team’s efficiency differential is a better predictor of future wins than a team’s current won-loss record or point differential. NBAstuffer.com has a schedule-adjusted efficiency differential. The top 5 are:

Atlanta 9.4
Miami 7.72
Chicago 7.62
Sixers 6.97
Portland 3.7

To this someone might say:

the only two teams over .500 the Sixers have beaten are the Al Horford-less Hawks and the Danny Granger-less Pacers

which would skew the data in the Sixers’ favor. Which to I would counter that 3 of the Sixers loses (and 4 games total I think) have been without Hawes, one of their top 2 most productive players. My gut tells me these things are a wash (maybe even more against the Sixers favor). It seems the Sixers are more or less as injury-plagued as the other teams in the league.

Looking at just records against “top-tier teams” is also problematic as the sample-size is just too small to draw accurate conclusions from. If I remember correctly, I believe the Heat were rather poor against good teams in the regular season last year (got swept by Boston I think), and then made it to the finals.

NBA championship teams generally have a eff. diff. of a 5 or above, so the numbers are telling us that the Sixers are a championship-caliber team. Do I honestly believe that yet? I would say no. Personally, I think Hawes is the key. I just need to see more of him, healthy obviously, to believe he is legit. He has been so poor his whole career, that I’m still struggling to believe he has become an elite center in the league, even though statistically he is. If he is legit then I think the Sixers are legit…to win the East and the title. If he’s not or is injured, then I think a 2nd round exit is the reasonable expectation.

I would have put the over/under for that three game stretch at 1.5 wins, and given that it resulted in one convincing win, one blowout loss, and one loss that was basically a toss-up, that’s essentially what it ended up being. It’s too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, just as a win in the Denver game to make them 2-1 wouldn’t have been enough evidence to prove they’re legit.

As for the Heat running away from them in the 4th quarter, well, I do think beating the Heat in the 4th quarter, in Miami on the second night of a back-to-back, minus your only two competent big men (a vital asset for beating them since interior defense is one of their only weaknesses), is a tall order. I’m not going to get too upset about it.