Monta Ellis Can Score But He's Not a Good Scorer
On really bad teams, someone needs to score. The Golden State Warriors, are, have been, and will be a really bad team. But under coach Don Nelson, they were often in the top tier of teams in possessions per game, allowing them to score more points. And specifically, for Monta Ellis to take more shots.
Extensive scientific research has proven that the more shots a player takes, the more points he will score. It's kind of like Ricky Davis when he was on the Cavaliers with the likes of Dajuan Wagner, Tyrone Hill, and Bimbo Coles. No one else was going to score the ball, so he had to take 19 terrible shots per game at terribly inefficient percentages. People hate on Kevin Martin because all he does is score but at least he does it at generally high percentages.
With Ellis, that sort of ball-hogginess is what you're going to get. This Sixers team may not be the most efficient offense in the half-court, but what they don't need is an Iverson clone without the once-in-a-generation ability. Jrue Holiday needs the ball in his hands. Evan Turner is working to become an off-the-ball wing player. The soon-to-be overpaid Thaddeus Young will have more plays run for him. Ellis stunts all of that development without improving the team in the short- or long-term.
This is another instance of the Sixers moving laterally. Ellis is 1.5 years younger and making a bit less money than Andre Iguodala, and according to Hoopshype he's signed for the 2013/2014 season, which, as Jordan said, is the year after Elton Brand expires. With Andre, it's likely he wouldn't want to pick up his player option since he's been here forever and has indicated he doesn't particularly love the town. Ellis might want to hang around for that extra season, limiting our options in the 2013 free agency party.
It's like they're trying to save money while also half-rebuilding but winning now and getting a player the casual fan can get behind. If that sentence doesn't seem to make sense, it's because it doesn't. Trading the best wing defender in the league with a 3/1 assist to turnover ratio for another high usage rate player who can't defend or play within an offense doesn't make sense either. I'd rather trade 'Dre for an expiring contract and picks. Even Hedo Turkoglu wouldn't get in the way of the young core like Monte would.
The trade makes too much "basketball sense" not to make. In a way that will make us all nauseous, I'm fairly certain this deal will be done. Prepare for doomsday posts in the weeks leading up to the draft.
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From Hollinger
The most damning stat, however, is how much better the team played without him. Golden State outscored its opponents quite comfortably as long as Ellis wasn’t around, and finished a whopping 11.4 points per 100 possessions better without Ellis — giving him the single worst differential in basketball.
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Thanks Jason. When you put it all together, this seems like a great deal for the Sixers!
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jun 7, 2011 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions
The most damning stat, however, is how much better the team played without him.
Didn’t I point this out in the other thread? :P
"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover
More good(?) stuff on Ellis from Hollinger
Ellis is talented enough that he may eventually become very valuable, but at the moment he is the league’s most overrated player. He plays like he learned the game from watching Allen Iverson tapes, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. Probably no player in the league took more ill-advised jump shots early in the shot clock, a particular problem in this case because Ellis isn’t a good jump shooter — he made only 33.8 percent of his 3s and 38.1 percent of his long 2s.
Ellis finished with a gaudy scoring average because he played a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, but he was 47th among shooting guards in both TS% and pure point rating. Basically, he dribbles around looking for a shot unless circumstances force him to pass.
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Remind you of anybody?:
Basically, he dribbles around looking for a shot unless circumstances force him to pass.
Hmm….
This guy makes a point by saying that maybe they want to get out of Dre’s contract now so they don’t have to worry about losing Thad, Jrue, or Evan(hopefully that doesn’t lead to any bad contracts). There 1st rounder better come back if it happens
PLEASE GOD LET US GET AN OWNER LIKE MARK CUBAN!!!
With all the super teams that are going to be around the league the only way to compete is going to be by having a ballsy owner with deep pockets.
oh my
So much new, so little time! Things are just getting crazy now.
formerly jdcvr6
"When I'm dead and buried, and my time here has passed. I want them to bury me upside down, so my critics can kiss my ass." - Bob Knight
The fact that I found out Monta Ellis also raps scares me even more. These Lou Williams comparisons are too real!
Yeah, but only like 25%
It’s not even a rich man-poor man version. It’s more like poor man-middle class man.
You are not a warrior; you're a beginner!
by Reverend_Randy on Jun 7, 2011 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Change the title of this article you sound like an idiot...
“Monta Ellis Can Score But He’s Not a Good Scorer”
what? I’ve watched Monta for years, the guy is an electric scorer, he’s an awesome finisher. His problems are defense. He’s a very good scorer.
Don’t blame the Warriors constant ineptitude on this guy, he’s been one of our few bright spots and even after the moped incident he’s come back with class. It’s just not going to work with him and curry but to say he’s just a product of Don Nelson or something is absurd.
The writer of this article uses statistics to support his opinion, giving his opinion more credibility. You just use more opinion to support your opinion, giving your opinion less credibility.
Saying he’s an “electric scorer” and “awesome finisher” doesn’t address the fact that the warriors, per 100 possessions played better when Ellis was on the bench.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
one thing that the 100 possession +/- stat doesn’t capture is context. ellis played heavy minutes and was pulled from games often when the outcome was decided (blowout win or loss).
by wg on Jun 7, 2011 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Good Scorer = Efficient Scorer
Ellis may be explosive, electric and any other buzz words you can think of, but none of those words mean efficient, which is what really matters from a one-dimensional player.
In 2007-2008 when surrounded by talent he was the leagues most efficient 2 guard
Surrond him by talent let him rest and play only 36 minutes agame he will shoot over 50% again. He is simply a freak offensively and would help the Sixers a lot.
Ellis can be efficient. Someone made a point about when he played with Davis and Jackson how he shot over 50 percent from the field. Obviously, his game has gotten better, but his ego has grown with it. If Collins can discipline him, he could help us tremendously on offense. But that still doesn’t change his lackluster defensive skills. Unless we want Jrue to have to guard the better guard on the other side, that will hurt us probably more than his offense will help us.
This is something I was thinking about
His defensive skills will be basically the same but Maybe being surrounded by different people and buying into a different system will make him a different player. I’m pretty sure I’m Just being optimistic but who knows, maybe this potential trade ends up helping us a lot more than we think it will (crossing my fingers).
formerly jdcvr6
"When I'm dead and buried, and my time here has passed. I want them to bury me upside down, so my critics can kiss my ass." - Bob Knight
he could buy in. He doesn’t seem like an ego-maniac. I’ll still be against the deal if/when it happens, but I do realize there’s a chance it would help. Collins is much more of a stickler than either Nellie or Smart was, and he garners respect. He’d work with Monta to make him the best player he can be. Defense is expected under him, as is taking care of the ball. Two things he needs to improve on. He’s still young enough to change. If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t like the odds but there’s a chance. After some more though, I’d pull the trigger on this deal as long as it’s not a 1 for 1.
Just remember that when OKC were a losing team Durant had the worst adj +/- in NBA
you know why? because he played the most minutes on a crappy team and when he would sit down it meant that they were getting blown out or (very very rarely) were blowing somebody out. At that point, teams don’t really care, so take those stats for what they are worth.
You’re not actually comparing Durant to Ellis are you? Please tell me you’re not.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Why would I have to show that to you? So you mean to tell me you just randomly felt like bringing up Durant amongst conversations about Ellis, but in no way intended to make a direct comparison? BS.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
You say they;re both a good player on a crappy team and liken their +/- numbers in the same post. It’s pretty hard to come to another conclusion.
You are not a warrior; you're a beginner!
by Reverend_Randy on Jun 7, 2011 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Nobody is talking about his +/-. It’s about the fact that the Warriors were a better team when Monta didn’t play.
"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover
wow that went over your head...
+/- tells you exactly that. I’m pointing out a flaw.
10-11 Denver Nuggets
Weren’t they also better when Carmelo was out? It could come down to team chemistry as well.
No. It doesn’t.
+/- shows you how many points were scored while you were on the court vs. how many points were scored by your opponents when you were on the court.
The stats used are how the Golden State Warriors performed when Monta Ellis was on the court against how the Golden State Warriors performed when he was off of it.
They are completely different stats.
"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover
don't worry
he has shown over at GSoM that he has no clue where most stats come from.
We’re familiar with those people too!
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jun 8, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Now, SDtotheBay is making some very weak excuses for Monta, but I’m failing to see how we’re not all talking about the same thing here….? +/- can be expressed in a variety of forms – net, adjusted, offensive, defensive, etc….it’s all the same concept, though….
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions
+/- is different from points/points allowed per 100 possessions.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Are you referring to the same thing Hollinger is referring to?
finished a whopping 11.4 points per 100 possessions better without Ellis
That looks to me like a reference to net +/- (I’m not sure exactly where that 11.4 number comes from, though, unless it’s a reference to his net +/- in 09-10?)…
Or you can check out:
http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=310607006
The +/- column is just points scored – points allowed when they were in the game. Different from net +/-, but still another form of +/-. Like I said, it comes in a variety of forms….
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Random variation – it happens (it’s also worth noting that in Durant’s case, the Thunder were pretty bad the year Durant had a terrible +/-, so it really might be that his play was ineffective in helping his team win. Obviously that is no longer the case with him). In Monta’s case, however, we have some pretty good evidence it’s not just a random variation fluke.
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions
He was told in a kind way to do it? Does he not have any power in these decisions?
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
All of a sudden I’m no longer worried about this rumor.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Eskin’d.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jun 8, 2011 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Monta could score on any team in the league like he does not just the warriors.
he is a nightmare to gaurd 1 on 1
by Belinelli's the savior on Jun 7, 2011 1:53 PM PDT reply actions
Actually
according to his synergy scoring numbers, he was a very slightly below average ISO scorer.
You are not a warrior; you're a beginner!
by Reverend_Randy on Jun 7, 2011 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
maybe your right but rev you watch the games..
the moves he puts on people on few people on earth can do.
also a lot of those iso’s are at the end of the shotclock.
by Belinelli's the savior on Jun 7, 2011 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
as i read this fan post...
and i feel like you must not watch Warrior games. I won’t say anything about whether this is a good trade or not from a sixers standpoint… but I feel like if you watched this guy play you would have to say that he is a special scorer. the things monta can do is down right amazing. i think when healthy, he is a top 5 finisher at the rim. if he was on the right team in the right scenario, i think he could make a team a contender
sometimes when too much is put on your back, you are forced to push the issue. Monta was driven way too hard in his 09-10 season. He had a career year in 10-11, because his teammates improved. And clearly the Warriors are not good, there are tons of holes in our team. With better teammates, I think Monta will be able to play the role he was truly meant to play.
Again, I’m not saying if this is a great trade for you philly fans. but monta is no scrub. a ricky davis comparison is a joke
Montas stats are greatly distrorted.
If you watch the Warriors, when the clock gets down to under 10 seconds someone will always treat the ball like hot potato and pass it Monta where he forced to take an ill advised shot as the clock is expiring. When he was a second and third option in 2008 he was the most efficient SG in the league and shto over 53% from the floor. Hell he even went over 60% for an entire month. The lack of other talent on the warriors has made it so he has had to take on too much all the time. If he played on a good team he would be an instant all-star. he is a stud!
Every top option is in this situation.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
This is objectively false. 82games has data on when in the shot clock shots came from – you’ll find they contradict that idea.
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you guys are really overreacting
I really don’t think he’s as bad as the numbers you are pulling out. I mean, 11.4 points per possesion is a lot. However, he played over 40 minutes of every game and only missed 2 games. You can’t look at those numbers and say that the sample size for the minutes he missed isn’t completely skewed. He’s also a 47% career shooter. And he’s a guard. Do you realize how good that is?
Maybe there are problems with fit, sure. But I would say he fits better than Iggy simply because he won’t be standing directly in the way of Turner. Defense will certainly be an issue, but there are plenty of people who can help him pick up his slack. If he keeps his production on the same level, he could very easily leave in the summer of 2013 in search of a long term contract. $11M isn’t a ton, and if he thinks he can do better he probably would give it a shot. There will be plenty of teams making room for Dwight, and the loosers of the sweepstakes would gladly pay some nice coin to pick up Ellis and appease some of the fans (see A’mare). It would be hard to say the same thing about Iggy making 150% of that number.
Iggy is good, no doubt. But he obviously isn’t the guy to build a team around. The kind of money he is being paid is that level of player. You’re not going to get a team to part with that type of asset for him. You pretty much have to take a salary dump (as in Hedo) from a team that paid too much for someone who didn’t pan out, or you have to take someone with some flaws. Honestly, I’m not sure you’ll get a whole lot better than Ellis, especially for a team that could use a really boost to the offense.
If it were to happen I would hope you could milk a little more out of it (i.e. switching picks or throwing in Udoh) since I do think this is tilted towards the warriors a bit, but I don’t think this is a terrible solution.
"This is the most popular sport in America blaming its feet for insolence and cutting them off with a chainsaw to show them who's the boss in this arrangement. When it bleeds out, it will admit no regrets because those who paint themselves into corners forget that a path out ever existed."-Spencer Hall, The NFL Lockout and Taking Sides in The League's Labor Dispute
A 47% shooter who doesn’t get to the FT line is like a baseball player with a pretty good average who doesn’t walk or get extra base hits. Sure, that .280 batting average looks good to the naked eye but when you look further into the stats a .280/.310/.340 player just isn’t very good.
"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover
I think one thing everyone is overlooking is the fact that Ellis CAN be an effeicient scorer
He proved that in 2007-2008 when he shot 51.3% from the field and that was with a less-refined 3-point stroke. And the year before that he shot 47.5% which is respectable for a shooting guard. When evaluating Ellis, one needs to look at the situation in which he was placed in Golden State. He didn’t even play with a real point guard this season, and everyone knows that the past few years under the Nellie offense (Before Smart tried to stupidly turn them into a defensive team with that personnel) the mantra was shoot, shoot, shoot. I believe that under the tutelage of Collins, Ellis can prove to be an efficient scorer especially now given the fact that his jumper has improved. He also shot a career best 78.9% from the FT line (not counting a 25-game season) this year, so he is showing signs of improvement there.
I’m not necessarily saying him for Iggy straight up is the best trade ever or is completely fair value, but I guess what I’m saying is we shouldn’t write him off so quickly as an inefficient scorer, because he has shown he can score efficiently in the past, but it must be under the right conditions. I think playing with Jrue would definitely help his game. After all, the man has a better career FG% than Kobe Bryant by 1.4%, and he certainly has a better career FG% than Iguodala despite being (listed as) 3 inches shorter and 27 pounds lighter. Ellis jacked up a lot of shots this year because the Warriors had so many possessions and, on a lot of them, his teammates kind of stood around and watched. If ET can improve his game and be a scoring threat at the 3 and Thad can do his work in the post, Monta won’t need to play run and gun and shoot all day. He can potentially play efficiently in an offensive system with Jrue, ET, Thad, EB (and hopefully a real center that actually rebounds and plays defense AKA not Spencer Hawes).
He’s been efficient 1 year. He’s been horribly inefficient 4.
Which one would you bet on being the anomaly ?
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
It’s an interesting situation with Monta. Normally I would agree with what you’re saying, but there’s very good reason to think the differences weren’t just some random variation difference – if you followed the Warriors, you’d know how differently he was used back when he was efficient compared to now. He’s really struggled to be efficient in a primary ballhandling role, but when he was next to Baron, all he was asked to do was finish, which he’s excellent at (check out his at rim %‘s for proof). The last couple years he’s been put in a position where he has to consistently create for himself, and the result is wayyyyyyy too many jumpers off the dribble (which we know are low percentage shots). So the real question is what role will Monta be in? This means both what role the coach envisions for him as well as how Monta himself will play. If he ends up in an off ball, finishing role, he can be a very effective scorer. If he continues to be a primary ballhandler and creator, look for him to continue his inefficient ways. I think it’s really, really uncertain what you’re going to get with him. I just don’t know if a given coach will utilize him properly, as well as if he’s willing and capable at this point of going back to a different role.
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Reasons Monta excels off the ball, by the way: he moves really well without the ball in halfcourt sets, and gets multiple layups off cuts a game, he comes off screens fairly well and has a nice midrange game catching it on the move off a screen, he’s basically a one man fast break so he gets easy buckets on that every game, and he’s even added a 3 pointer to his arsenal now that he didn’t have before.
by Missing Barry on Jun 8, 2011 7:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree that Ellis could be used well off the ball (I still don’t like his defense, though). I don’t think that’s the role he’d be playing here, nor do I believe most people are looking to acquire him for that.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
In 06-07 he shot 47.5% from the field while averaging 13.1 FG attempts per game. You would call that “horribly inefficient” as well? For a shooting guard You must have some really high standards. I guess Kobe Bryant must have been “horribly inefficient” throughout his career cuz his best single-season FG% is 46.9%.
Not counting his injured season where he only played 25 games, I would argue that Ellis was an efficient score 2/4 seasons since his rookie year and those where when he was actually playing with a real point guard and not asked to do everything. I still maintain that he can be efficient if in the right situation.
by FooFighter1124 on Jun 8, 2011 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
collins is different than nelson
maybe under a defensive minded head coach he can be pursuaded to play defense. i know his slim frame makes that difficult against the bigger SGs of the league, but hopefully it wouldnt be as bad as any of us think. i think doug can influence him.
having him allows meeks to take the role of sixth man which is wear he belongs. a spark of the bench. and as for losing dre’s defense…that sucks, but from what i saw this season turner wasn’t half bad defending.
i feel the same way about dre as i did mcnabb. terrific player, but time for a change.

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