Defending the 2011 NBA Draft Class
by Michael Levin on May 28, 2011 9:24 AM PDT
in 2011 NBA Draft
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PrintEveryone from Chad Ford to Howard Eskin to that awkward heavy breather from your office is running around saying that the 2011 NBA Draft is the worst one in years. You may as well exchange your pick for a couple basketballs and a bag of chips because you won't get anyone valuable in this draft. I'd go so far as to say each member of the draft class is a terrorist and should not be allowed within 100 yards of an NBA basketball team.
That's a load of Dong.
What this draft class does not have is the two or three blue chip prospects that you can say will definitely be a franchise cornerstone for the next 5-10 years. Kyrie Irving comes close, but because he only played 11 (fairly spectacular) games at Duke, there's not as much certainty there as people had with Andrea Bargnani, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, and Michael Olowokandi.
Wait, what?
This is not the worst draft class of all time. There's a distinct lack of high level talent to hang your hat on, but if we're calling a guy like LeBron first tier, and Irving second tier, then there's a veritable Kapono-load of 3rd tier prospects to be had in the draft. Drafting a starter isn't the likeliest thing for a team picking in the late first/early second, but because of the depth of this draft, it's entirely possible and in some cases, probable.
Lucas Nogueira, Josh Selby, and Justin Harper all have a modicum of upside that will offer teams picking from 25-35 a good shot at becoming a starter someday. And that's ten picks after the Sixers go. If there was ever a time to not stay in the Sixers draft slot, it's now. Because they can get the same level of talent from pick 10 to pick 45, they need to either trade up for one of the top 3 bigs (Kanter, Valanciunas, Biyombo) or trade down, nab another pick and shed a bit of salary while getting one of the bigs at the end of the first (Nogueira, Keith Benson, Trey Thompkins). Having young, high-upside guys at the end of the bench or in the D-League (Jeremy Tyler, Greg Smith) will be much better than the old, decrepit bodies we saw in suits last season (Tony Battie, Jason Kapono, Dongaila).
Here's an awesome graph I stole from BrewHoop in their three-part series about the NBA Draft Lottery.
While PER isn't the greatest measuring stick of talent, it's the easiest to go with here and shows that even those top few guys that are supposedly sure-thing prospects are often the very opposite. Depth is easily this draft's biggest strength, but there's a healthy dose of big men to be had here as well. The Sixers should, with the right bit of maneuvering, come out with an integral piece or two to the team's success for the next few seasons.
So this is me going on record as saying this draft class will surprise some people, it's got plenty of indie cred, and from a Sixers perspective, could be the perfect time to gamble on one of those top 3 big men when execs are so low on the quality of the talent pool. We've got four weeks til the draft. Get excited.
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Good write up
I do agree there is a lot of depth in this draft esspecially at the power forward level are pg level u could probably steal a good shooting guard in the second round as well. I wrote a new trade in the fanposts, what do u think of it?
I particularly like...
…that Evan Turner is, according to this chart, the worst #2 pick of all time, worse than Hasheem Thabeet or any of the other really terrible #2 picks. :)
BUST!!!!!!! :D
Yeah, it’s not really fair to determine the success of this draft class yet. Somehow, Thabeet managed a 12.9 PER in 68 games and 13 minutes per game in his rookie season, barely making the cut that BrewHoop used. I think Turner’s PER will rise as he grows in his career.
No, no, no, every other player selected in this past year’s draft is already a superstar, with multiple All-Star appearances, MVP selections, and NBA championship rings (and, of course, they all score 20+ ppg). And according to his YouTube highlights, Derrick Favors has already made the Hall of Fame. :)
Turner will be fine.
Totally agree. I have had the mindset for a while now that the draft is lacking in stars but there are plenty of players I think will become nice rotation or bench players. It is a good year to be drafting late in the first round, where you can possibly find a good player for a relatively cheap price.
This.
This is also what I have been thinking for a while now. There aren’t as many stars as in past drafts but you can find players that will give you solid depth and could end up being a key part of a teams bench.
formerly jdcvr6
"When I'm dead and buried, and my time here has passed. I want them to bury me upside down, so my critics can kiss my ass." - Bob Knight
If you are looking for a quality role player than this draft ia as good (or bad) as most. But if you are a bad team looking for a franchise player than this year and last year are pretty weak.
by tk76 on May 28, 2011 1:44 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
It depends on whether the new CBA requires 1 year post HS or 2. Stern wants 2 years, which would hurt next year’s potential.
by tk76 on May 28, 2011 4:22 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I hadn’t read that Stern wants two years. I think that could really push quite a few more kids overseas.
If this two year stint doesn’t come in to effect next year, it’s projected there will be a lot of power forwards available.
This draft, I’d rather manouver for a future starter at a position of need, or drop down and going for developmental picks..
Selby/Irving
He is the next Wagner. The only difference is he won’t be expected to do much in his first year. He will then be give the benifit of the “doubt” for a few years based on his talent. He won’t amount to much in the league. AKA Wagner and Telfair! It’s a decent gamble for a late first round pick, but it won’t pay off. Irving will be a total bust for a top five pick. He is all hype and couldn’t stay healthy in college. Come on, he will never survive an 82 game season. There are hidden gems in the draft, but these guys are not two of them. The busts come early with the p.g./s.g.‘s in the draft. The real gems are some S.F. and P.F.’s that can be taken late. I really hope the Sixers can get their hands on Singleton in this draft. If we don’t move this pick and trade Iggy in another manner, this guy is perfect. He can step in and be a great permiter defender like Iggy and he is athletic for his size. We can get tons of cap space and find a big time defender in the mid first round.
Care to explain why Irving will be a bust and why you mentioned Selby (a late first/early 2nd) in the same breath?
Career Path
They will have the same! One is hyped,the other is being hyped as just having a bad year. They will end up in the same place. Both will have average at best NBA careers!
At the 16th pick this week* I’m more interested in SF Chris Singleton or C Nikola Vucevic, rather than an undersized powerforward.
If we move down in the first round, I’m very interested in Reggie Jackson as a backup for Jrue and Evan. And of course Jeremy Tyler early in the second.
*I change my mind every week as I just don’t like the players projected at our pick, It’s either move up and grab one of the top big men, or drop down and pick a player who fills a future need.
If you google the phrase “Sixers draft 2011” the first four results are Liberty Ballers link. Just found that neat.
yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / SBN Philly / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on May 30, 2011 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions
The few, the proud, the liberty ballers.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / SBN Philly / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on May 30, 2011 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Did I forget dumb?
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / SBN Philly / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on May 30, 2011 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions
There’s 2 things dogging this draft class:
1) The casual fan knows nobody. They haven’t seen Kanter, Valanciunas, Vesely, Biyombo or Moti play. Those are 5 of the lottery picks. They barely saw Irving play. It’s hard to get excited over guys you haven’t seen play.
2) It stinks, at the top of the list. If you take away the 5 foreigners (already explained it’s hard to get excited about them), Derrick Williams doesn’t have franchise level talent. Brandon Knight I’m not sure is a starter in this league. Kawhi Leonard is a huge risk. The Morris brothers may not be starters. There’s virtually nothing that’s a sure thing.
Sure, there might be some marginal role players between 15-30, but that doesn’t make a draft. Even the 2000 draft had Etan Thomas, Hedo Turkoglu, Desmond Mason, Quentin Richardson and Jamaal Magloire in the second half of the first round.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
*Mike’s favorite player, Jamaal Magloire
"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George
by Tanner Steidel on Jun 2, 2011 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
2) It stinks, at the top of the list. If you take away the 5 foreigners (already explained it’s hard to get excited about them), Derrick Williams doesn’t have franchise level talent. Brandon Knight I’m not sure is a starter in this league. Kawhi Leonard is a huge risk. The Morris brothers may not be starters. There’s virtually nothing that’s a sure thing.
And this pretty much does it for me. If we can’t move up in the draft to pick one of the international bigs, then I’d rather us move down and select a project bigman, whether it be late first round, or early second round.
I’d rather take a flier on a kid that has the potential to be a decent starter, rather than a player who may never be more than a role player.
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