Column: Cost of No. 2 pick would be too high
by tmoore on May 22, 2011 6:36 AM PDT
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PrintHere is a portion of my Sunday column:
Should the Sixers see what it would cost them to land at No. 2 for the second consecutive season?
Absolutely. But the cost would almost surely be pretty high.
Let's say Andre Iguodala and the Sixers' No. 16 selection would bring back Beasley, another player (probably from a third team, to make the salaries work) and the No. 2 pick.
Would you do that? Probably not - unless the other player is good enough to make it worthwhile.
It's not certain the T'Wolves would say yes, either.
Another user-created commentary provided by a Liberty Ballers reader.
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Thorn said he wants to add talent, rather than create cap space. Other player in the deal would have to be enticing.
Not really about cap space. It’s about adding a third building block to Holiday/Turner. A 27 year-old Iguodala who’s starting to show signs of breaking down isn’t ideal.
MInnesota can afford to absorb some of Iguodala’s salary, also. They are at least $5M under the cap. Although I would rather have Wes Johnson than Beasley.
Minnesota only has $42 mill committed to next season. Even if the cap goes down 10 percent (from $58 mill to $52.2 mill), the T’Wolves would be able to take back more salary than they give back.
Don’t think Minny would be willing to give up on Johnson one year after making him the No. 4 pick. Do know Collins was impressed by Johnson’s workout for the Sixers last June.
I think I can safely say as a Wolves fan
that the majority of us would jump at the chance to do that deal.
Of course you would, because it’s a ridiculous trade proposal that heavily favors MN.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
well let’s see…
There are two approaches to this issue:
1.) we could be typical impatient fans wanting some type of immediate change, whether or not it will work out. We just want change, any change, because Iguodala is not a star and therefore he has to be traded.
Or
2.) We could wait a year until the summer of ’12, after a season where hopefully Iguodala is back to full strength, has a great season, and has a much higher stock. Then we could try to trade him for a package more valuable than a no. 2 pick in a weak draft and a shooting guard who may or may not develop into a starter on a contending team.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
the CBA is up for the NBA after this season… how are they going to be able to trade any players?
xEgan on Twitter
Any team eliminated from the playoffs can make a trade. The Sixers, Timberwolves and a third team could conceivably agree to a deal today. Trade would have to be completed under current rules. Their salaries could decrease next season if the new CBA includes across-the-board cuts.
You guys probably know this, but trading picks doesn’t count in the financial part of a trade (even though the No. 2 pick would be slotted at $3.955 million and No. 16 at $1.414 million).
Its just interesting the different situations between the NFL and NBA and their expiring CBAs
xEgan on Twitter
Agreed. One has a hard cap (NFL) and the other has a rookie scale (NBA). One has guaranteed contracts (NBA) and the other has signing bonuses (NFL).
Not only that but the draft and trades in general. The NFL didn’t allow any trades involving players because there was no CBA. I don’t understand how the NBA will.
xEgan on Twitter
Can anyone tell me why the Wolves would trade Beasley for Iguodala? Beasley has found a home in Minnesota and has finally become everything expected of him. And frankly, he’s as good as Iguodala if not better.
That’s right, it’s time to drop the homer goggles and face reality. Beasley grabs as many rebounds, scores about some 6+ more PPG. The only thing Beasley doesn’t do is “make plays”.
But then, on a Ricky Rubio based team, why does he need to? On the other hand, this grandoise delusion may become reality because David Khan is an idiot.
But there’s no reasonable GM on the face of the earth that trades Beasley+2 for Iguodala, he’s not LBJ. KB24, KD, etc.
I’ll try to put this into a perspective so that you can understand: You have to look at PPG based on their career averages, not this past season.
When looking at their career averages (basketball reference player comparison can help with this) you will see that Beasley takes 2.2 more shots per game to score 0.3 more points per game. That’s not very efficient. In fact, that hurts the team more than Iguodala hurts the team by taking unnecessary jumpers.
Also, most teams average over 20 assists per game. You can’t just count on your point guard to create every opportunity for you.
And just for kicks…Iguodala’s winshares per 48 – .123
Beasley’s winshares per 48 – .069
Which of these players helps their team win almost twice as much? Come on, buddy, you can do it. Do the math. I believe in you.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Can anyone tell me why the Wolves would trade Beasley for Iguodala? Beasley has found a home in Minnesota and has finally become everything expected of him. And frankly, he’s as good as Iguodala if not better.
If I didn’t know you better, I’d think you overrate Beasley. In reality, you underrate Iguodala.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 25, 2011 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Beasely is an expiring
If you don’t extend his qualifying offer next fall
Derrick Williams is going to Bust
So he’s worse than an expiring in that he’ll make casual fans (and LeQuan) think he is good by scoring a lot of points and having a lot of pointless discussions about him and why he’s not good at basketball.
Beasely is a polarizing guy
I think he showed potential as an isolation scorer in his first year his minutes were primarily at the SF. I wouldn’t want him in a Iguodala deal as I think he compliments Beasely nicely in that he is the shot creator and isolation scorer that Iguodala isn’t. Put AI9 at SG, Super Cool Beas at SF, and I think you have a complimentary wing pairing.
Derrick Williams is going to Bust
Beasley scored 19.2 ppg on 17.1 shots per game. That is 1.12 points per shot. Out of 118 players that had enough minutes to qualify for the scoring title Beasley was 109th in points per shot.
I am not sold on him as good at anything.
Scoring in Isolation is the least efficient way to score in the NBA on a points per possession basis. Situations at the end of games, end of quarters, or as the shot clock winds down often create a situation when isolation scoring is the only way to get a shot up. It’s also been shown by statistical analysis that as usage rate goes up efficiency generally goes down. This is ture for almost all players. Now I am sure you know all these things, but these facts are necessary to support my following argument.
Say Beasely averages around .95 points per possession in Isolations. And that Isolations account for 35% of his possessions. Then say a guy like Andre Iguodala averages .80 points per possession in isolations, but they account for only 15% of his possessions. Thus, many more of AI9’s offensive possessions are used in situations that are generally more efficient than Beasely’s. Then as a rule, AI9 should be more efficient than Beasely because the situations in which he is used allows him to be.
Now obviously a team of Beasley’s would not be great, as all 5 people on the floor would be trying to score in the most inefficient way, isolations. However, a team without any Beasely like players, would have no ability to create offense at the end of a game, or in the playoffs when Defensive pressure intensifies. Although AI9 is much more efficient over the course of the season, I would rather have Beasely take the last shot or create in isolation at the end of the game because he is better at these generally low point per possession situations.
Looking at the Timberwolves roster, we had no guards that could handle the ball except Luke Ridnour, who is more of a scoring point than a distributor. Literrally no one to handle the ball, let alone create in isoaltion. Trading for AI9 helps the ball handling duties, but we still need Beasely to be our isolation scorer as he is our sole option.
Isolation scorers are not readily available in the free market either, so I am comfortable in the way I’m valuing Beasely, even though I know his stats say he isn’t efficient. I wasn’t trying to sell you on anything except for the fact I would rather keep him.
If you are looking for more than anecdotal evidence of why these skills are valuable, Basketball-Reference posted a recent article where their analysis shows that teams that lose a high volume inefficient scorer to trades, free agency, or injury, generally get worse, not better. Food for thought.
Derrick Williams is going to Bust
109th out of 118 is a staggering number. I don’t care how many isos he took a part in. He’s not only inefficient. He’s near the bottom of the league in efficiency.
There were 11 players in the NBA that had a higher (or the same) usage rate as Beasley. Kobe (1.27 PPS), Rose (1.27), Westbrook (1.29), LeBron (1.42), Carmelo (1.31), Wade (1.40), Durant (1.41), Amare (1.33), Kevin Martin (1.48), Monta Ellis (1.20), and Lou Williams (1.29). I seriously doubt Beasley was used enough in isolation to make him that much more inefficient than anybody else. Beasley wasn’t the only player in the NBA to have a large number of his shots come from isolation plays. Yet he was more inefficient than nearly every one of them.
And you’ve clearly misread that article. None of it had anything to do with players lost to trades or free agency. It was about whether the team was more efficient when the big scorer plays vs. when he doesn’t play. It has more to do with the scorer’s value against players on his own bench rather than being able to replace the player. For example, it says that Sacramento was worse when Tyreke Evans was on the bench then when he started. That’s because the players on the Kings’ bench are worse players than Evans is, not because it is hard to find volume shooters.
First, I don’t have synergy sports access, but I believe Beasley had the most isolation plays run for him out of anybody in the entire NBA this season. #1 overall.
I was able to find some synergy data for isolation plays as of mid march. These are points per possession.
Dirk Nowitzki: 1.10
Derrick Rose: 1.06
Kobe Bryant: 1.04
Kevin Durant: 0.91
LeBron James: 0.90
Dwyane Wade: 0.89
Carmelo Antony: 0.87
Monta Ellis: 0.83
So Kobe scores 1.27 PPS compared to Monta Ellis scoring 1.20 points per shot, yet Kobe is FAR better in isolation than Ellis. Maybe this explains why Kobe has been to 6 finals and Ellis can’t get to the playoffs even though they both score about the same points per shot. How players use possessions matters to me, even if you dismiss it as tomfoolery.
Btw, your reading of the linked article is an interesting take and one I don’t share.
Derrick Williams is going to Bust
Btw, your reading of the linked article is an interesting take and one I don’t share.
It’s not an opinion. What I mentioned is exactly what the article is doing.
“The outcome (the bottom-right cell) is the average change in efficiency differential when an inefficient leading scorer plays vs. when he does not play, weighted by possessions without the leading scorer.”
Every single one of those rows shows how a team did in that year with a player vs when that player was not in the line-up. There’s nothing about replacing a player a season later. It’s all about replacing a player in season after an injury or trade. The data points out that when a high usage player doesn’t play for his team that team plays (slightly) worse.. though in 7 of the 9 data points from this past season the team actually did better when the inefficient scorer missed games.
Not to mention only 5.6 rebounds per game (while averaging over 32 minutes) and more turnovers then assists. Taking that into consideration with the usage rate and synergy numbers you posted, he seems like a combination of Lou overall and Thad’s bad side. No thanks.
by The Crooked Man on May 25, 2011 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Only 5.6 RPG….For the record, Iguodala averaged 6.0 RPG last year and I don’t think he’s averaged 7.5 for his career.
Okay, I give up. Iguodala is the greatest thing since sliced bread!
“More turnovers then assists”, you’d think we freaking won a title instead of missing playoffs/lottery/first round playoff exit.
It’s not Beasley’s fault that he just turned the corner this past season, nor is it his fault that David Khan’s a moron. For all intents and purposes, Beasley is still the prospect that the Heat took #2 overall. Theoretically, your asking Minnesota to send you two #2’s for Iggy.
There’s an Iguodala clone at least once a decade. Whether it be Ron Harper or Bobby Jones or Larry Hughes. They were all solid wings, but at the end of the day, Harper and Jones won their titles as role players. Larry Hughes was a spot starter for the Cavs.
If we go by the rule of there being an Iguodala once a decade and Iguodala came from the ’04 draft class, 3-5 years from now, there should be another Iguodala-esque player and we can then draft him(and probably, the team structure would have been better off)
And here Minnesota fans where, unless David Khan is truly an idiot, the T-Wolves and 76ers won’t come to an agreement. I’d like to say this Iguodala is God movement is from a minority but that’s not the case. Unless you feel like parting with two #2 picks for a 29 year old injured SF that played a bunch of games in his career and whose lack of half-court offense leaves to be desired.
It’s been some five years since we saw an in-prime Allen Iverson or really, anything of that caliber.(Holiday gives us some glimpses but I’d rather him be a pure point). So I can somewhat understand if they don’t remember what it means to have that so-called inefficient isolation scorer.
"More turnovers then assists", you’d think we freaking won a title instead of missing playoffs/lottery/first round playoff exit.
So because Beasley has more turnovers than assists that means Iguodala sucks because he didn’t win a title?
How does your brain work?
How do you sleep at night?
If we go by the rule of there being an Iguodala once a decade
This is not a rule. You just made it up like everything else.
I’d like to say this Iguodala is God movement is from a minority but that’s not the case.
No one is proclaiming him a god. We’re just not deeply undervaluing him like a lot of idiots do. Read Derek’s post from yesterday. If you’re capable of understanding it (I’m really not sure how someone like yourself would interpret it), he breaks down why a majority of the fan base is dissatisfied with Iguodala.
So I can somewhat understand if they don’t remember what it means to have that so-called inefficient isolation scorer.
Beasley is not a “so-called” inefficient isolation scorer. He actually is a very inefficient isolation scorer. And no, we not would come close to winning a title with him leading our team.
Just out of curiosity, has your mother’s basement that you live in been tested for traces of lead-based paint?
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Um, also for the record, Iggy is a THREE who out rebounded the 6’10" Beasley, who’s a 4, while averaging the assist to turnover BENCHMARK of a decent point guard. I’m not a big Iguodala fan AT ALL, by the way, these are just very simple stats that jump right out.
In regards to your “an Iguodala every ten years” theory: How many underachieving tweener 6’10ish guys who shoot outside shots and never reach their potential are there every 10 years? That’s Beasley, and I’d say about 2 PER SEASON.
by The Crooked Man on May 27, 2011 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Beasley and 2nd pick for AI9 (and Speights?)
I like this deal for the 76ers. Beasley has a chance to learn from brand for a couple of years to improve his overall game and he and Thad (should we sign him) can push each other competing for time (they actually seem like they would compliment each other well). Seems like an ideal sitution for Beasley and the 76ers (time to play and gel with holiday, turner, and our 2nd pick).
I guess we could take a center at 2 but that seems like a major stretch ( just read a quote from an nba exec who said vucevic and kanter are the same player) so we could take Derrick williams (consensus #2) and trade him to a team that covets him for their pick and or a player and take vucevic at 16.
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