What Happens if the Sixers get Swept?
by Michael Levin on Apr 20, 2011 2:57 PM PDT
in 2011 NBA Playoffs
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After the Heat took both games in Miami, the Sixers are a mere two losses away from finishing the 2011 season. Though the next two games are at the Wells Fargo Center, where the Sixers boast a 26-15 record, the Heat will be favored to take each of them and polish off a first round sweep. As much hope as there was after the Game One loss, all of it evaporated with the bomb that was dropped Monday at the AAA. Collins and the gang are confident in a bounce back, but kids, it doesn't look good.
So we have to address the possibility of losing four in a row to the Heat and being bounced from the first round rather quickly. Would the front office be confident going into next season with essentially same team? Is this season still considered a success? What exactly is the long-term plan for them?
By all accounts, it was a good season. A 14-game improvement was unexpected and enjoyable to watch. The average age of the top 8 rotation players is a sprightly 24 years old. The team has rallied around the leadership and coaching of Doug Collins. To the masses, the future appears bright for this nucleus.
But look at the Sixers teams since they lost the 2001 NBA Finals. Doug Collins is the 7th coach since Larry Brown skipped town and the team has gone 389-431 since then. Even if you take out last year's Eddie Jordan massacre, they sit at a hysterically mediocre 49% win percentage. As you probably know, they've made the playoffs in three of the past four years despite having not had a winning record since 2004-05. They've been the scrappy, overachieving young guys again and again, but always lacking the star power and the shooters to get to the next level. This team, as assembled, is not much different.
If the Sixers lose out, everyone attached to the organization will say the same thing. "We've made great strides as a team this year and look forward to improve even more next season" or "This core is so young and talented and we have full confidence this team moving forward" or some slight variation. The potential lockout could throw an elephant wrench into this whole ordeal, but because I have no other choice, I'll be operating under the assumption that there will be a season next year.
Andre Iguodala has been crucial to the success of this team. Because Ed Stefanski, Rod Thorn, and Doug Collins are so thrilled to have an (almost) winning team, they wouldn't dream of taking its best player and removing him from the equation. He's still in his prime, and though the argument has been made by our resident physician that Andre's body is beginning to show signs of breaking down, the brain trust won't worry about that just yet. He's got two years and a player option left on his deal, and as contracts go up, Andre's seems less inflated (although the four writers here would argue that his deal is fair as pie). His value remains high after placing in the Defensive Player of the Year voting and this past summer's national team success. But they'll hold onto him.
Elton Brand has played his best, and most importantly, healthiest season in years, but the team is hopeless inside without Brand anchoring both ends of the court. So it's unnatural to suggest the win-now collection of decision makers for this organization would move his contract to free up cap space and keep the core as young as possible. They're confident he'll have just as good of a 2011-12 season because his body is now perfect and wouldn't dare get injured again. So he'll stay.
And then there's last year's Most Outstanding Player Evan Turner. He hasn't had a terrific start to his NBA career but there have been times when we've seen what he's capable of. With help from shooting coach Herb Magee, he could come out of the gate ready to win a starting spot. But he'd have to take it from Jodie Meeks, who has earned the trust of everyone for his great shooting and solid all-around game. His ability to stretch the floor adds a new dimension to this team, but his unspectacular play limits them from ever really contending. And we've already seen that Turner and Iguodala don't compliment each other well, so Jodie's pretty much a lock to win the job. If Turner's just a bench player, they'll decide to trade him for an older veteran big man that can help sure up the paint.
This is the mindset of this team. Getting into the playoffs was good enough, and naturally portends more improvement. But that's not the case. As has been true for the last ten years, just making the postseason kept people happy. Look at Utah -- they were on their way to a playoff bid but traded All-World point guard Deron Williams to improve their team in the future. Look at Denver -- trading their best players Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups not only kept them in the playoffs, it helps their prospects of being a legitimate contender in the next few years. Houston had a better record than the Sixers this year but fired Rick Adelman because they're going to rebuild. Other teams have chosen to get worse and get younger to ultimately get better. But there's some stigma in this organization that makes everyone terrified of moving any good players until they're retired or dead.
Regardless of whether or not the Sixers steal one game in this series, management will go into next year with the same plan. Win games, and be just good enough. There are a bunch of really good players on this team. And maybe they're just a piece or two away from really contending. But they're going to pick the wrong pieces, forget about the right ones, and we'll be in the same place in five years wondering if they should trade Jrue Holiday so he has a chance to win somewhere else before his prime years are gone.
This series ultimately tells little to nothing about this team or the future. It'll be the front office decisions that determine where the franchise goes from here. Plateauing seems about right.
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Honestly i think we should be open to trading anyone except for Jrue, Evan, and Thad (assuming that we resign him). I’m sick of finishing .500 I’m wiling to have a couple lottery seasons to build a great young team and have a shot at a dynasty in 4-5 years.
"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." - Freddie Mitchell
"For Who? My teammates. For What? To win" - Aaron Rowand
by Clint Eastwood on Apr 20, 2011 3:24 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
If we’re going to be happy with the Sixers getting to the first round of the playoffs every year as a 6-8 seed and maybe wining a couple of games in the first round before bowing out, by all means, keep this team together. But if you want this team to have a chance to compete, you have to think about blowing it up. And building from a base of Jrue, Evan, and Thad, plus the pieces you could get for trading Dre (I’m assuming that a Brand trade, even with his improved play, is still mostly a salary dump) and future draft picks, you at least have a chance to build for something more. If it fails, you’re not really in a materially worse position than you’re in right now.
Never argue with an idiot. They'll bring you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
Clint Eastwood comments here now?
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by Michael Levin on Apr 20, 2011 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Seeing as the Knicks might get swept too I don’t feel completely awful. I think Brand, Dre, and Thad all improved their value and can be used to either build upon or trade for pieces. That is one of the more interesting things Rod Thorn said this year. He said he was trying to develop pieces and could use them to acquire a superstar. The only thing I could have wished for was to be able to go into this series healthy. You can’t can’t tell what you have with Dre’s bad knee, Brand’s hands, and Lou’s one leg.
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Yeah but the Knicks have Carmelo Anthony, a top 5 player in the NBA. If we hade a bonafide superstar that could take a game over I would be okay with our team but right now our best scorer is Lou Williams and that’s not good.
"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." - Freddie Mitchell
"For Who? My teammates. For What? To win" - Aaron Rowand
by Clint Eastwood on Apr 20, 2011 3:58 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Name 4 people better than Carmelo? He’s been defending pretty well during the playoffs and he can carry his team to some pretty close games against a better team.
"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." - Freddie Mitchell
"For Who? My teammates. For What? To win" - Aaron Rowand
by Clint Eastwood on Apr 21, 2011 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Lebron, wade, kobe, durant
all 4 are good on both sides of the court
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
by jefu on Apr 21, 2011 6:31 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Players I'd rather have (age not included)
Rose, Dirk, Kobe, Wade, LeBron, D12, Durant. Mayb even DWill and CP3
I don’t think DWill and CP3’s are “maybes”
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Apr 21, 2011 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
IMO I think the top five players are:
1. Lebron
2. Dwade
3. Durant
4. Kobe
5. Melo
But that’s exactly what it is an opinion I have mine and you have yours and we’re not going to change eachother’s opinions.
"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." - Freddie Mitchell
"For Who? My teammates. For What? To win" - Aaron Rowand
by Clint Eastwood on Apr 21, 2011 3:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Great write up. Sadly, it doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t know already.
This organization has become a joke. Not a joke like the Clippers but a joke nonetheless.
The fact that you would only have to pay about $30.00 more to see a Sixers playoff game vs probably the most exciting team in basketball than you would to see the Phillies play the perennial bottom feeders of the NL East on a Wednesday night tells you all you need to know about people’s mindset regarding this team.
The fans don’t care because the organization doesn’t care. Year after year it’s the same old story. Just get to the playoffs, win a game in the first round and that’s a bonus. From what I understand this team was the it team in Philly during the 80’s. I could be wrong since I was born in ‘84 but in a relatively short time this team has gone from being pretty important to the city’s redheaded step child. (No offense to anyone here who has the misfortune of being redheaded.) The Phillies are the new It team with the Eagles right behind them and the Flyers not far behind. The difference between the three teams I just mentioned and the Sixers is they seemingly want to win. They make moves to win, every single year. Been that way for the last decade or so for the Eagles and Flyers and we all know what the Phillies have done since 08’.
This franchise, the Sixers need to stop being afraid of their own shadow and do something. I would rather this team blow it up(save for Jrue and ET) and have it fail then them continue down this same dead end path. I commend effort, not complacency. When this organization shows the fans it cares, the fans will in turn care about this organization. As long as the Sixers are second citizens in their own building then the fans will treat them as such. Philadelphia isn’t LA or Miami or Chicago or New York but it’s in that 2nd tier of cities players would want to play for. This team has an advantage that a lot of other organizations don’t, money and fans. The fans will come when the money is spent properly.
Oh and one final parting word…but this statement:
If Turner’s just a bench player, they’ll decide to trade him for an older veteran big man that can help sure up the paint.
…makes me sick, because it’s probably true.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I’ve probably said this about 12,000 this past year. Trade Iguodala? Yes. Trade him for pennies on the dollar just to get rid of him? No.
I suspect the following things are relatively true: Iguodala is currently our highest trade value player. I also suspect Brand will become increasingly valuable as the trading deadline next season (assuming a new CBA structured anything like the old one…those are the only rules I know how to play by) as a large expiring contract for the following season that is actually capable of contributing, assuming he plays at the level at which he’s played this season. For a savvy GM, there is a market for both those players, given the right timing.
The time to trade Iguodala is now. His reputation is outstanding, he has legitimate skills to offer a good team, he’s relatively young, and, as Mike pointed out, his contract looks more reasonable every day. However…that does not mean taking back garbage for him just to get his salary off the books. And it doesn’t mean taking some high-usage gunner who will score a lot of points while screwing up everyone else’s game and playing crappy defense. What it does mean is getting a maximum value deal for him, which would include some combination of draft picks and young players with upside, with some level of cap relief, since draft picks and young high-upside players don’t match salaries with Iguodala. Cap relief is not my primary consideration, but what I don’t want to do is take on a bunch of crap contracts that will choke us for years. Nothing can come back that will outlast Elton Brand.
And speaking of Elton Brand…
…I love the guy. He’s been a warrior for us this year. He’s playing with his hands smashed up, and he’s having more good games than bad. He’s proven to my satisfaction that he’s recovered from his two big injuries. Obviously, he’s not a young player with a high contract, and his best years are most likely behind him. But he is still a more-than-solid contributor. And this is increasingly important, because his giant contract is over the hump. I suspect (given, again, a CBA in any way resembling the current one) that if he can maintain his current level of performance, the market for him will begin at the deadline next year, and probably peak after next season. He won’t bring back the value of Iguodala, but he will have value to a contender that needs another solid big that can contribute and then expire. Again, I wouldn’t use him to bring back a big-name free agent, except maybe Dwight Howard, but he should be able to bring back something valuable toward the future.
The question is, as has been so ably stated elsewhere, does the Comcash-driven management team have the courage to pull the trigger on these sorts of deals?
I doubt it. I’m sure they’ll ride it out with this crew and lose in the first round every year. Sad.
It all comes to who owns the team. It doesnt help that the Flyers are the “siblings” of the Sixers either. Until an owner, who cares about winning, takes over, this team is not going to go anywhere. Now Im willing to see what Thorn does to try to fix the situation, but I think it has to start with realizing the the Sixers will not win with their current core: Iguodala, Brand.
I’ll end up writing a whole fanpost in this comment so I wont put too much detail into what should happen. Simply, Andre and Elton have to go. Can they be moved before contract expires? Probably not. But, until then, it’s gonna be first round enterance, 4-6 game series, and the same old “What a great learning experiance for the team for next year!” Whatever.
I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money. I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok---Shaquille O'Neal
It doesn’t appear any of you are very realistic about how to run a franchise or look at it from their perspective. Blowing up the team or trading away players like Brand and Iguodala isn’t going to put fans in the stands! If they could add a real power forward or Center to what they have and a better guard than Meeks, (or a better Meeks) maybe they could win over 50 games next season and have a legitimate shot at the title. So from their perspective winning more games with Doug seems like the smart way to go. Maybe they continue to get lucky with the draft or the new CBA gives them a big advantage over teams that mortgaged their future like Miami, Boston, and NY. Without doing anything, next season could suddenly be very good for the Sixers.
Miami is a tough match-up for any team, and a very unusual opponent. The Sixers lack of reliable inside scorers is a fatal flaw that will keep them from winning a championship until it is addressed. If they had such a player, Miami wouldn’t look so tough.
Collins should consider starting Speights and tell him, “I’m depending on you to keep Bosh off the boards and block his shots. I think you can score on him and get him in foul trouble, and that would be even better. If you can rise to the challenge of outscoring and outrebounding him and we can take them”.
Really the Sixers are just not scoring at the same level that they learned to over the course of the season. They’ve only had 2 quarters in the series where their offense was acceptable. Part of this is attributable to Miami, but I think most of it is injuries to Williams, Iguodala and Brand. These are are key players and scorers, and all three of them need to be on for the Sixers to win.
Thad or Meeks and Holiday also need to contribute something, depending on what our “big three” do. Somehow Hawes and or Speights has to rise to the occaision and cancel out what Bosh and the other forwards for Miami are doing on the boards.
The Sixers can beat the Heat, but they have to add more offensive punch to their game. Collins needs to remember that he needs Iguodala or Williams on the floor at all times, and needs someone who compliments those players on the floor with them. Lou and Speights and Brand are comfortable with each other and a fairly explosive group that even did well for Eddie Jordan. Collins needs to think more offensively, because they’re defending just fine.
And how do you think we’re going to get a better scorer and a good big? We have to trade Iggy and Brand first and then build from there. Think of it as taking one step back and two steps forward.
"I'd like to thank my hands for being so great." - Freddie Mitchell
"For Who? My teammates. For What? To win" - Aaron Rowand
by Clint Eastwood on Apr 20, 2011 5:48 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Blowing up the team or trading away players like Brand and Iguodala isn’t going to put fans in the stands!
It can’t really get much worse. http://espn.go.com/nba/attendance/_/sort/homePct
Without doing anything, next season could suddenly be very good for the Sixers.
Above this, you mentioned getting a better forward, a better Meeks and building through the draft. Those seem like some pretty big changes. Which is it- change the team or keep it the same? I don’t think you can realistically say that by keeping the team the same they are a legit title contender for next year.
The team has been relatively successful at identifying talent in the draft- with the exception of bigs. Then again good bigs are hard to find and anyone with a decent body is going to get drafted high because some team will give them a shot.
It is always a crap shoot – does anyone really know if Cousins or Favors is ever going to be a major part of a Championship team? There is an element of luck in selecting the right player and the Sixers have to find a big and keep selecting them until they get a good one. I liked that big kid that played for Kentucky coming off their bench, but I’m not sure if he can make it as a pro.
It’s not a lot if the drafted player is your new big and Meeks gets better. Doing more than that should also be possible, as we can shed a lot of salary with Nocioni, Kapono and Songalia’s contracts. I think that keeping the same team minus those three could become a contender, with a draft pick and a free agent or two.
I’m calling it now. There will be no sweep.
The Sixers are going to win the next four games thus, winning the series. ESPN will talk about what went wrong with Miami for the next 71 hours and 55 minutes, saving 5 minutes to ask viewers the following poll questions “After beating the Heat can the Pacers move on to the next round?”
Good write up.
I think it all starts with trading Iguodala for the best deal we can find; some sort of mix of a decent C/PF, a real backup PG, and draft picks would do it for me. Feature Turner in his spot in the offense, creating off the wing and playing with Meeks at the two and Jrue at PG. We’ll probably have to keep Brand until his contract is up he doesn’t have much trade value and still gives us some post scoring. Free up cash to spend, go after good players in the draft, and it will good for Dre and us in the long run.
Here’s the rebuilding plan:
Goal #1: Get an actual center who can play (on both sides) and isn’t named Spencer Hawes. I’m sick of watching 6’8" Elton Brand play center (I’m not knocking Elton here. He’s done admirably well having to play so much center, but he shouldn’t have to do it so much).
Goal #2: For the love of all that is holy, stop drafting small forwards who aren’t good shooters
Goal #3: Obviously easier said than done, but find a perimeter player (preferably an SG) who can shoot well, but can also do at least SOMETHING else besides shoot.
Goal #4: Somehow, some way get Marreese Speights to play defense and rebound or just get his ass outta here
by FooFighter1124 on Apr 21, 2011 1:35 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah Thornton played very well in Sacto… I’d give him a look, hoping that it doesn’t break the bank though…
by FooFighter1124 on Apr 21, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Rec’d, since it’s absolutely all true. And for the record: WHAT young core? Paws? Brackins? Lou? Lazy Speezy?
We’ve got Jrue, ET and Young. THAT’S IT. The future of this roster is as bleak now as it was when we were 27-55. The only difference is a .500 record.
by LeQuan Glover on Apr 21, 2011 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Not as bleak
Cuz we have Doug and Rod Thorn but yes..same roster wise. Besides that Evan Turner guy.
bulls fan here. question: would you trade andre for noah, ronnie brewer and a late 20s pick from this draft?
"if Jonny [Flynn] loved playin competeant basketball az much az he loves de movie Salt
he might be ok."
- MAYNHOLUP
I loathe Joakim Noah for terribly irrational reasons but even I would say yes to this.
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Apr 21, 2011 4:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I know, RIGHT?!
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / SBN Philly / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Apr 21, 2011 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Would the Bulls really do this? Because I would want the Sixers to do this immediately. Boost interior rebounding/defense, get a 2nd draft (in a weak draft though) where we could take a flyer on someone or flip it, plus Brewer.
No they definitely wouldn’t unless they love Asik and think Deng/Andre would work well together.
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by Michael Levin on Apr 21, 2011 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions
id probably do it if i were the GM, thought there is a good chance michael is right
when he says the bulls wouldn’t. (and yes, i love asik and thing deng/dre would work fetchingly- seeing as the bulls currently employ only 1 above average ball handler on the perimeter at the moment, which has led to some issues)
"if Jonny [Flynn] loved playin competeant basketball az much az he loves de movie Salt
he might be ok."
- MAYNHOLUP
iggy needs to go…it would prolly never happen but i would love to see him get traded for Danny Grainger some how.
I think Iguodala would work well with Granger, but I wouldn’t trade for him. Granger is a slightly more efficient shooter, but doesn’t create for others nor defend like Iguodala does. I think Iguodala starting on the USA team while Granger rode the bench is evidence of the tangibles that Iguodala provides being more valuable to a team.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Team USA is like the Miami Heat. Iguodala started as a “spot starter”, his proper role. AKA Battier/Bowen. Iguodala is a vastly richer version of these guys. As were the guys who came before him, IE: Larry Hughes, Ron Harper and Collins’s comparison Bobby Jones.
Spot starters are important to a team. But we’ve gotta get the horse before we get the cart.
Iguodala’s a cart, but we forgot the horse. Actually, Stefanski/Collins and every supposed basketball pedigree seems to think that because Iguodala’s a sexy looking cart that he’s a horse. And you have to remind them, constantly that he’s a cart. A good looking one, but a cart nonetheless. It doesn’t matter what cart you have, you just need a cart. There are however horses better than others. Horses that can transport you places, and horses that win the Kentucky Derby.
We wanna win the Derby, we all agree on that. So let’s start there.
by LeQuan Glover on Apr 21, 2011 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
3 team trade
this is actually a realistic trade that will keep the core of each team intact…. http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3ncp9t5 adding javale mcgee give philly a true center, rashad lewis would provide a perimeter threat as well as another big body although defense is suspect,(can play 3 and 4) maybe not a starter if you aquire paul milsap,anchoring the post along with the back court of holiday and iguadola. and still have a strong bench with young,speights,turner, and maybe hawes, as for the wizard brand could still bring a decent tandem with blatche,and the guard play of wall, and utah has a vast amout of bigs but lacks in the guard department. that can compliment and multiply and out put of the back court as well as there bench.
by Richard Reynolds on Apr 22, 2011 9:37 PM PDT reply actions
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