Advanced Stats in Basketball
Four months ago I put together an advanced stats primer and have been using stats like DREB%, dMULT and WS in my posts ever since. However; I still get the feeling most readers either don't understand advanced statistics, enjoy advanced statistics, or both.
Advanced stats have their flaws and are far from perfect, obviously. But I think they do a much better job of portraying player's impact than conventional statistics. Win shares (WS), Win shares per 48 (WS/48) and Wins produced per 3,000 minutes (WP3K) are a good indicator of a player's overall impact. Although individual defense is near-impossible to properly evaluate, Defensive rating (DRtg) and Defensive multiplier (dMULT) do a decent job of representing a player's defensive impact. And the advanced rebounding stats like Defensive rebounding percentage (DREB%) are nearly flawless, and worlds better than sister-stat, rebounds per game.
Advanced stats are a terrific tool to help evaluate players you watch every night -- like the Sixers -- and an even better tool to help evaluate players on other teams, who you might not watch more than once or twice a year.
Do you guys like when I use advanced stats? What's your favorite stat? Least favorite? Are you still confused? Questions? Don't hesitate to post a question in the comments, send me an e-mail or tweet me. Consider this an open forum.
10 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
A couple things
I love the % advanced stats (tov%, reb%, ast%, etc…) – I feel like most stats most accurately describe a single players’ offensive skills – like you said, it’s near impossible to judge individual defense with a single stat but I think the best one is dMULT because it describes how better/worse the opposition performs based on what they normally do (as opposed to PER against where it would be weighted heavier against Iguodala who constantly guards the other team’s best player) – I think drtg is better used as a tool to judge how good/bad a team’s defense is rather than finding it for an individual player (your drtg can take a hit even if you play light’s out defense if another teammate on the floor keeps getting blown by and scored on)
is there an advanced stat to judge michael jordan’s tendency to wear horse-riding boots?
"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George
Still only really useful in a vacuum. For example, it’ll do a much better job of telling us who was the more effective defender between Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner this season than it will on deciding who was better between Andre Iguodala and Kobe Bryant.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Aug 16, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Nice write up
I think you really need to take a look at both most of the time. Look at Monta Ellis for example (and the post from the other night). His conventional stats look pretty good but when you dig deeper into the advanced stats, you see he is an average player.
I really like the percentage stats as well. They really show what they do for the team and with their possessions.
That said, how do people feel about per 36 minutes stats? This is a common comparison but I am not a fan of it. On one hand, it can show you that someone is making the most of their time on the court. I do not think it is fair to use per 36 minutes to compare a bench player to a starter though (most of the time). There has to be reasons that one player is getting more minutes and the bench player is not getting as many minutes.
I am not sure I conveyed that clearly. Am I way off base in this thinking/what are you thoughts on per 36 stats to use in comparison?
Per 36
Depends. I think a player playing anywhere from 25-48 is good to compare using per 36 because it levels the playing field somewhat, but obviously comparing a guy who’s playing 12 minutes a game and averaging 20-10 (Speights rookie year was similar to this) to a guy like Chris Bosh is flawed.
I agree
I have seen some people try to compare players like Speights to Bosh and draw conclusions from that. I just don’t think it is fair to compare players with such a large gap in minutes played on a per 36 basis.
I like conventional stats. It’s out there, was he good or bad? etc. Let’s take for example Elton Brand: 13/6. Signiificant drop off from his career numbers and he was even worse then he was coming off the shoulder injury and playing those 6 games hurt.
they also lie – look at david lee’s numbers – you would think he’s a top ten player in the league
"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George
by Tanner Steidel on Aug 16, 2010 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Advanced stats show that Chapu is a superior player.
The advanced stats are correct.
"Oh, y ahora ¿quién podrá defenderme?" "¡Yo!"
I’m both a proponent and an opponent of advanced stats.
I think Advanced Stats are nowhere near what they are in baseball, mostly because it’s significantly harder to isolate cause/effect and responsibility in basketball. To that end, I don’t give them as much credence in an argument as I do when talking about baseball, and I think they leave much room to be used incorrectly.
On the other hand, if I have to pick advanced or conventional, I’ll go advanced every time. They’re clearly better than conventional stats, even if they’re not perfect (neither are averages).
I have a huge interested in advanced stats for basketball, partly because they’re more useful than regular, mostly because they’re potentially invaluable and have a lot of room to grow and be perfected.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
I agree with this
There are so many things in basketball that cannot be quantified in a stat (look at things like screens set, boxouts, help defense..etc). However, advanced stats do a better job of quantifying impact.
Love them both
You need guys who can fill those conventional stat columns but stats are often misconceptions of what really happened in a game.

by 














