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A Player Comparison: Lou Williams vs. Monta Ellis

Asking most NBA fans the question "Who's better, Monta Ellis or Lou Williams?" usually prompts a combination of three responses:

  1. Who's Lou Williams?
  2. Monta Ellis dropped 26 points per game last year, you dummy.
  3. HAHAHAHAHA! 
The real answer might not be as definitive as you think. Follow the jump.

Star-divide

Tale of the Tape

Lou Williams

Height: 6'2''
Weight: 175
Age: 23
Draft Class: 2005
10-11 Salary: $5 million

Monta Ellis

Height: 6'3''
Weight: 175
Age: 24
Draft Class: 2005
10-11 Salary: $11 million

Career comparison

(Click image to enlarge)
Career_medium
Lou and Monta's career numbers in the advanced statistical categories are virtually identical. The only three significant difference are: Lou has a much higher WS/48 (0.102) than Ellis (0.071), Lou's AST% is over four points higher (22.5) than Ellis' (18.1), and Ellis' eFG% (.494) is higher than Lou's (.469).

In the more conventional statistics Ellis holds a slight advantage. Here are each players' career stat lines per 36 minutes:

Lou: 17.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.4 turnovers and .429/.323/.785 shooting percentages.
Monta: 19 points, 4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.7 turnovers and .476/.309/.764 shooting percentages.

The field goal percentage is the biggest difference between the two, and a big hit to Lou's career stat line.

Career-year comparison

(Click image to enlarge)
Picture_16_medium
Much like their careers, both Ellis and Williams' career-years (Ellis in 07-08 and Lou in 09-10) are statistically similar. Ellis' career year was minimally better in each advanced statistical category except for DRB%, AST%, STL% and BLK% (same), but I emphasize, minimally better.

Once again, Ellis' career year also has the advantage in the conventional statistics. 

Per 36
Lou: 16.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, 2 turnovers and .470/.340/.824 shooting percentages.
Monta: 19 points, 4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals, 2 turnovers and .531/.231/.767 shooting percentages.

09-10 comparison

(Click image to enlarge)
Picture_15_medium
Last season -- Williams' career-year -- Lou blew Monta out of the water in nearly every advanced statistical category. The WS/48 stat tells you all you need to know. Lou's WS/48 was a respectable and career-high 0.130 (ranked 24th among guards who played at least 40 games). Monta's was an abysmal 0.023, ranking 127 among guards who played at least 40 games.

Last year Lou also had a significant advantage in the conventional statistics.

Per 36
Lou: 16.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, 2 turnovers and .470/.340/.824 shooting percentages.
Monta: 22.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 3.3 turnovers and .449/.338/.753 shooting percentages.

*Bonus 
For last year we also have access to the Basketball Prospectus-only numbers (my favorite).

Lou: 4.9 WARP, 10.5 WP3K, 1.015 dMULT and 106.1 DRtg 
Monta: 3.5 WARP, 10.0 WP3K, 1.005 dMULT and 105.8 DRtg 

Conclusion

Lou and Monta have a lot of similarities. They're the same size. They're a year apart in age. They were both second round steals in the 2005 draft. They both came straight out of high school. They're both shoot-first, undersized, penetrating scorers. And through the full, in-depth comparison I just set before you, you can see that their production on the court is fairly similar, whether you're comparing their careers as a whole, their career-years, or last season. There is one major difference, however: their contracts.

Lou is owed 10.1 million over the next two seasons with an ETO in year three. Monta is owed 33 million over the next three seasons with an ETO in year three. Call me crazy, but if given the choice I'd take Lou Williams over Monta Ellis, for less than half the price. 

*Bonus comparison

(Click image to enlarge)
Picture_17_medium
This is a comparison of Lou's career year (last season) to the past three combo-guards to win the NBA's sixth man of the year award. It's an interesting comparison. Lou's career year holds its own statistically. 

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Interesting, but that being said...

…I wouldn’t touch Monta Ellis with a 10-foot pole (or Croat, for that matter, or Argentine). He might be my Least Favorite Player in the league. The personification of everything I hate about Lou’s game.

In the Least Favorite Sixer award, I voted for Lou. His game irritates the crap out of me. Or maybe that was something I ate, but still, I have very little interest in undersized shooting guards who bang the ball on the floor for 22 seconds and then hoist an ill-advised jumpshot they have no chance of hitting, and play no defense whatsoever, and play serious minutes at the point but have little inclination to pass and generally poor court vision.

For my money, Monta Ellis is Lou+. Lou seems like a basically nice, likable kid who is useful for about 15-18 minutes of instant offense in an uptempo lineup next to a defensive guard like Jrue (and preferably with an “eraser” behind him, like Sammy, but that ain’t happenin’ this year). He has some value, in a limited role. His value decreases sharply when he exceeds that role (playing major minutes at the point, starting, trying to be the focal point of the offensive game plan, generally trying to be something he’s not). Monta Ellis is the same player, as your numbers show, but he thinks he’s a superstar. Ugh.

I was mostly just amused that you compared my least favorite Sixer to my least favorite player overall. Well-played, sir, well-played :)

by dweebowitz on Aug 14, 2010 7:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Ellis

Yeah, he seems to be your typical high usage, low efficiency player that gets overrated because of how much he scores. I think the fact that they are similar in the comparison you made is attributed to the fact that Ellis is overrated among the general public. Nice write up.

by JoshuaR on Aug 14, 2010 8:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I feel like Lou Williams is criminally under-rated, especially here in the Sixers community, especially dweeb. Last year, Lou Williams certainly didn’t pound the ball for 22 seconds. And he definately took his game to another level offensively. The mid-range game and 3pt game really opened up for him. Despite the increase in minutes, his turnovers remained roughly the same. In addition, Lou knew he wasn’t a great defender and IMO, he gave alot more effort, I remember two games in particular, last year’s home opener against Milwaukee and a game at Houston.

In the home opener, Jennings may have had a near triple-double night. But his FG percentage was poor and the Bucks as a whole struggled offensively. I remember also some pretty nice rotation D by Lou in that game. Similarly, the Houston game. Brooks might have “gone off” but it took as many shots to get as many points. Not a very good night in the win column. Between Lou and Jrue, they perserved that win.

But far more importantly, Lou found another way to contribute. If he couldn’t be a good defender, he could try to be a nice rebounding PG. Lou improved tremendously last year and I’m looking forward to more of the same. Our PG position is locked for yrs to come dweeb.

by LeQuan Glover on Aug 14, 2010 8:42 PM PDT reply actions  

I’ve always liked Lou as a player (don’t care for the way he carries himself off the court) and think he’s underrated by Sixers fans. He has plenty of flaws and he’s not a perfect fit for this team, but I think he has some value as a player. We went through the same stuff with Sam. It took years for fans to look past his issues and appreciate what he brings to the team.

My advice, if you hate him like dweeb, is try to appreciate him for the things he does well rather than the ones he doesn’t.

by Jordan Sams on Aug 14, 2010 9:40 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Well, since I’m not the GM or President of the Sixers (now that they’re separate jobs), I suppose it doesn’t really matter what my opinion of Lou Williams is. And I did say that I believe he does have value to the team. I just think he’s been misused…he’s not a starter, either at PG or SG, but he can bring value as an instant-offense combo guard off the bench, if he’s paired with a more defense-oriented backcourt partner, such as Jrue (or probably Turner). I don’t think he’s a primary ball-handler, but if paired with Jrue or Turner, he wouldn’t have to be.

That being said, I still think he’s a chucker with poor basketball IQ. But like everyone else here, I’m entitled to my opinion, given that none of our opinions are going to affect what the team does with any player at all :)

by dweebowitz on Aug 15, 2010 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly
he’s not a starter, either at PG or SG, but he can bring value as an instant-offense combo guard off the bench, if he’s paired with a more defense-oriented backcourt partner, such as Jrue (or probably Turner).

by Jordan Sams on Aug 15, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but I don’t want him taking huge minutes away from Jrue, Turner, or even Meeks (I’ll get to him farther down).

I’m pretty sure there are few completely valueless players (maybe Jason Smith). Even Bill Green has something to offer, I guess. It depends on how you want to prioritize those positives with the negatives the player also brings. And I think there might be too many instant-offense players off the bench on this roster. They come in all different sizes (Lou/Thad/Speights). Rather have something like a young Nocioni (as opposed to the somewhat decrepit version they have now) as the 6th man. Someone versatile, who plays hard on D and tries to fit into a team concept and play within himself.

I happen to like Meeks as a scoring guard off the bench, and I know a lot of people don’t. He seems to be able to knock down open shots and gives real effort on D (and yes, I know he’s not 6’6 and can be posted up by taller guards, but neither is Lou). He’s not as flashy athletically as Lou, but he plays a role and stays within that role. I like reserves like that. I keep hoping Thad will turn into the combo forward version of that (with the extra athleticism), but I have yet to see the defensive commitment or the basketball IQ there, either. Maybe there will be an improvement this season with Thad, in terms of the mental/emotional (for want of a better word) parts of the game.

It’s a matter of personal taste, I suppose. A lot of people like high-usage scorers. They’re flashy and put up a lot of points. Monta Ellis has a lot of fans out there (and so did Allen Iverson, who I admit I enjoyed watching very much when he was here). I loathe him as a player (I don’t really follow the Warriors and don’t know anything at all about him as a person), but I get why some people love him.

by dweebowitz on Aug 15, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

There may be too many offense-only guys off the bench, but Lou’s the best.

Lou’s not the best fit for this team in particular, and he’d be more valuable on a team like the Lakers or Celtics — a team who’s second unit needs a primary ball handler and a guy who can create for himself in the half court. He’s another guy it’d be nice to get something for, depending on the market.

I also have high hopes for Meeks and Thad this year. Meeks was very good at the end of last year and summer league, but it’s still too small of sample size to bank on him being a productive bench player. I’m catiously optimistic.

by Jordan Sams on Aug 15, 2010 1:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

I am, as well. And you bring up an interesting point. Lou might represent a valuable trade piece…relatively reasonable contract, and he has a certain skill set that, as you say, some teams could use more than the Sixers can.

Also, I think Lou’s skill set would be maximized on a team with defined veteran leadership that can smack him around a little and get him to take better shots.

by dweebowitz on Aug 15, 2010 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought he cut down on hid bad shots last year. Dude shot like 47%.

by Jordan Sams on Aug 15, 2010 7:41 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Ummm

Did I just find out it was you that wrote the best fan post ever created on Liberty Ballers under one of your aliases?

I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.

by Scott Schroeder on Aug 14, 2010 10:17 PM PDT reply actions  

no thats still me

I’ve been gone all summer but now im back. hey guys how is Turner doing?

by LouWilliamsMVP on Aug 16, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Monta Ellis dropped 26 points per game last year, you dummy

by el on Aug 14, 2010 10:52 PM PDT reply actions  

on a worse fg% – i could average 26 points a game if i took 100 shots, doesn’t mean i’m that good

"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George

LibertyBallers // @tsteidel

by Tanner Steidel on Aug 15, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Its funny because thats basically what Iverson did his entire time here, and we all loved him (kinda) for it.

by philiafan14364 on Aug 15, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

True..

but Iverson actually won games doing that…got us to the Finals…Golden state has only been to the playoffs once since Ellis been there, they did pull of a major upset, but it was against the one team in the league that could not match-up against them at all…they won 48 games the next year but didn’t get in cuz thee west is so stacked, and haven’t done anything but be in the toilet since

by tru1776er on Aug 16, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn’t even read your article, Monta is better hands down

He's back

by IverSun on Aug 15, 2010 6:11 AM PDT reply actions  

i think we keep lou if we can cuz he can be a great peice for our bench and if we do put together a stong winnning teamin the comin years he could become 6th man of the year cuz dont need ur backup point guard to set up the offense he can go out andbe instant offence for all i care

by Skitzo215 on Aug 15, 2010 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

I’ve always thought of Lou as AI’s replacement, as quick but more trainable, and therefore someone who would become the Sixers starting point. I still think that, except that Jrue is already a better point guard. The truth is that at 23, Lou is the age of a first or second year player, and it is a tragedy that during his career, he hasn’t had knock-down shooters or post up players to pass too, or any consistency in coaching or defensive philosophy.

I’ll agree that he does have some shortcomings on defense, but most NBA point guards give up something on that end of the floor. It’s simply that they score more on their opponents then they are able to get on them. With more discipline in shot-selection, and enough of an offensive structure so that he is more of a team player, Lou would work as a point guard or a 2 guard, depending on the other team’s back-court.

Seriously Lou Williams is a better player than Derrick Fisher, and he is a steal at his salary level. There’s no way I just decide to put Jody Meeks in ahead of him, or Willie Green for that matter.

I’m a firm believer in putting the best players on the floor, and Lou is always in at the end of games for that reason. I’m sure that Doug Collins thinks the same way and that we will see a lot of Lou Williams. Holiday, Williams and Iguodala give this team a very strong back-court. If Turner can fit in there too then the Sixers advantage there will be even stronger. There is tremendous depth behind them with Meeks and Green. Because most of the other guards aren’t suitable point guards, Lou will be the back-up point, and on the floor at the end and when Collins thinks that he can exploit a weakness by playing him.

 Monta is way over-rated, Lou is somewhat underrated, particularly on this board.

by RickoT on Aug 15, 2010 1:22 PM PDT reply actions  

It’s not like we’re world beaters offensively, here’s what Doug Collins said about Lou Williams:

“My thing with Lou was that I asked him: If he couldn’t start, could he be a part of a great 3-man rotation?”. Not a good or an average one, a GREAT 3-man rotation.,

Our guards/wings are our strong point, on a team with very few strong points. why do we wanna take away from our strong point, just cuz he ain’t a Jrue Holiday clone?

by LeQuan Glover on Aug 15, 2010 7:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Because he might have enough value to someone to bring back at least a competent PF (probably not a C). Which you have to admit is a weak point.

There is a glut of guards/wings. No one is giving up anything useful for Bill Green, and probably not for Meeks. I don’t propose giving up either Jrue or Turner. Only Lou has the combination of reasonable contract (small enough for him not to cripple a team’s cap, large enough to bring something back) and perceived value (losing him won’t cripple the team, but he’s a useful rotation player for someone) to get a decent player back.

The only other movable piece on the roster is Iguodala. But that trade would be a whole different message sent. And it’s been discussed ad nauseam, so I’m not bringing it back now.

I am not satisfied with the roster as a whole, as currently composed. To get back a useful piece, a useful piece must be given up. As I see it right now, you either trade Lou for a decent PF or trade Iguodala for picks/young talent/expiring contracts.

by dweebowitz on Aug 16, 2010 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you could get a decent PF in exchange, it would be worthwhile for the Sixers to pursue. It may very well happen this year, since under Collins players like Lou should play closer to their potential, and thereby become more attractive to other teams.

I would say that you better see what you have in Turner and Meeks before you consider losing Lou who I think is a top 10 NBA point guard in potential. If you take Iguodala out of the equation as a guard, Lou and Jrue are your two best back-court players.

by RickoT on Aug 16, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

On the Fence

Lou is a lot like Thad a “Tweener”, thier both in between positions…What i like about the team as it stands now is that when Jrue is out, you can let Turner run the point on offense & let Lou be a scorer, and cross match on D…I think Lou & Monta ellis are similiar except for the fact that Monta is way more of a chucker..and let’s not 4get that Monta Ellis plays for Don Nelson’s And 1/Golden State Warriors…I wouldn’t be opposed to moving Lou if you could off Brand in the deal as well..I can’t be mad at his “Black Hole Syndrome” b/c half this team has shot selection issues..but his speed is a defenite asset for the full-court defense, and don’t forget Lil Lou got HOPS…He gets more oops & dunks off than fraudualnt 3-time NBA Slam Dunk champion Nate Robinson…and yes he’s still very young, so there is room for improvement…i juz wish he was a more consistent jump shooter…with all that said I would take him over Ellis anyday b/c there isn’t 10 better bench players in the league than Lou Williams

by tru1776er on Aug 16, 2010 10:26 AM PDT reply actions  

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