Doug Collins: Turnaround Artist, Teacher and Defensive Mind
by Jordan Sams on Aug 11, 2010 6:00 AM PDT
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Throughout Collins' career he's gained the reputation as a "miracle man" of sorts. The three teams he's taken over (Chicago in '86, Detroit in '95 and Washington in '01) have improved their win total by an average of 15 games, and their defensive efficiency ranking by an average of 14 in Collins first season.
In Collins' first year with Chicago the team improved from 30 wins the year before to 40, and went from being dead-last in team defense to 11th overall. It's worth nothing that Michael Jordan only appeared in 18 games the year before, compared to a full 82 the year Collins arrived.
In Collins' first year with Detroit the team improved from 28 wins the year before to 46, and went from being dead-last in team defense to seventh overall. The roster upgrade in Detroit wasn't nearly as significant as 64 more games of Michael Jordan, but they added Theo Ratliff and Otis Thorpe defensively, and enjoyed the development of a second-year Grant Hill and third-year Allan Houston.
In Collins' first year with Washington the team improved from 19 wins the year before to 37, and went from being dead-last in team defense to 21st overall. The only players they added were 38 year-old MJ, Brendan Haywood and Kwame Brown.
The win totals and defensive improvements are impressive, but how much credit Collins actually deserves is difficult to gauge.
Can he transform Sixers -- a team who won 27 games a year ago -- into a defensive-minded, tough, hard-working team? Maybe, maybe not, but anything he does is guaranteed to look like gold compared to the mess Eddie Jordan made.
Does he still have it?
Collins also has the reputation of fielding good defensive teams, and rightfully so. His three years in Chicago the team ranked 11th, 3rd and 11th in team defense. His three years in Detroit the team ranked 7th, 11th and 9th in team defense. However; his latest stop in Washington, his team ranked 21st and 18th during his two-year tenure.
The Wizards' poor defensive performances under Collins can be credited to the roster - who ranked dead-last the year prior to Collins - but the three years after Collins, none other than Eddie Jordan had the Wizards ranked 20th, 19th and 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Collins has been out of the league for seven years, and it's been 13 since he's had a team rank in the top half of the league defensively. The Sixers ranked 24th in team defense last season. Does he have the pieces and/or ability to turn them into a top 15 defensive team in 10-11?
Good news for Jrue, Turner and Iguodala?
Throughout Collins career he's had the privilege of coaching star perimeter players early in their careers, like Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Grant Hill, and some good ones like Allan Houston and Rip Hamilton. These players have something in common: they all saw improvements in their individual defense under Collins. (Pippen began his career under Collins so there are no prior years to compare. )
Jordan saw his DRtg (defensive rating) improve from 107 to 104 and his DWS (defensive win shares) improve from 3.7 to 5.0 his first year under Collins. Hill went from a 111 DRtg to a 102 rating, and upped his DWS from 1.8 to 5.7. Houston went from a 116 DRtg to a 108 rating and raised his DWS from 0.3 to 3.0. Hamilton's DRtg remained at 111, but his DWS multiplied by six, going from 0.1 to 0.6. (Hamilton is the exception because his D improved significantly after Collins.)
Lindsey Hunter also emerged as a solid NBA defender under Collins.
Much like the improvement in win totals and team defense, different variables go into the improvements of these players' individual defense. One could make the case that these guys were good defenders to begin with, improved organically, and coincidentally had their breakout defensive seasons under Collins. Again, it's difficult to estimate how much credit Collins deserves.
But based on his history it comes as no surprise that Collins chose to coach a team with three young perimeter players - each with an abundance of defensive potential. Jrue is coming off a rookie year where he showed flashes of defensive brilliance and lockdown man-to-man defense. Turner is a big, physical two-guard who showed promise on the defensive end in college. And Andre Iguodala has already established himself as a borderline-elite defender.
If Collins has any chance of turning the Sixers into an above average defensive team it has to start with his three wings. It'll be interesting to see how their individual defense develops in year one under Collins and throughout his contract.
For future reference here are the (DRtg, dMULT)* and DWS for Jrue and Andre last year ...
Jrue: 106.4 DRtg, 1.149 dMULT, 1.0 DWS
Andre: 104.7 DRtg, 0.910 dMULT, 2.8 DWS
*From Basketball Prospectus
Ringing Endorsement
Grant Hill was coached by Collins during his second, third and fourth seasons, and played arguably the best basketball of his career under Collins in 96-97. Read what Grant Hill said about Collins when he was hired by the Sixers. He gives Doug a lot of credit for turning him into both the person and player he is today.
"With Doug, they'll be prepared, they'll be in great shape. He's an unbelievable motivator. He'll get them to play. It wouldn't surprise me if they're a playoff team next year ... Doug teaches you to be a professional."
The deeper we delve into the off-season the longer I have to ponder the Collins hiring and the upcoming season, and the more I think about it the more perfect the fit becomes. After last season's debacle this team is in desperate need of a leader, a motivator and a teacher. With Collins, they should be getting just that. Let's just hope the "miracle man" has some magic left.
All stats from Basketball Reference*
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For those who don't know what dMULT is...
from basketball prospectus:
First is dMULT, or defensive multiplier. This measures how effectively a player has limited his counterparts’ efficiency on a per-possession basis compared to their season rate. Thus, if Andre Iguodala has a dMULT of .950, that says Iguodala has held his counterparts to 95% of their normal production on a per possession basis.
it originally says Ron Artest instead of Andre but I changed it because I can
"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George
Here’s the problem: a 10-game improvement makes them still a below-.500 team. As an absolute best, that’s an 8th seed who gets annihilated by WaBrosh in the first round. At worst, it’s a low-lottery team that doesn’t get the talent they so desperately need, depending on Tony D to hit a home run in the draft to get even a passable frontcourt player. Or Stefanski to make a trade without getting raped.
The team needs real talent more than it needs a new philosophy. Although it definitely needs a new philosophy too, and there’s not a thing wrong with being about execution and tough D.
If this was a talented team looking to get over the hump and contend with the Miamis, Bostons and Orlandos, Collins would be the right guy for the job. This is a horrific team with not enough decent players to make a passable NBA roster. Being about the tough D is great, but they need the talent. There isn’t enough talent, and no coaching philosophy is going to make this team good.
I still think they should have gone with a younger coach and let him take his lumps with the younger players. But it’s too late for that. Good is good. Bad is OK. Mediocre is unacceptable, and mediocre is what they will be. Sort of that whole Philly blue collar thing. The team version of Reggie Evans, so to speak. Ugh.
Collins should help mazimize the young guys’ talent and make them better players in the long-run, where a younger coach might not have gotten the best out of guys like Jrue, Turner, Thad, Speights, Hawes, Meeks, etc. I’m not really down for rooting for losses anymore and if the Sixers get a pick in the 10-16 range next year, so be it.
The most important thing is development and I really think Collins will turn Holiday and Turner into borderline All-Stars over the next three years and I think Speights is a sleeper candidate to have a turnaround. The culture EJ instilled last year needed to be squashed ASAP before it stunted the growth of the young guys permanetly, and Collins will do that. I’m not saying he’s the only guy who would’ve — I think Budenholzer and Thibs would’ve done the same thing — but Collins history of developing young guys is intriguing considering the roster.
As far as drafting in the top goes, we got our guy this year, but finishing with a bottom five record doesn’t guanrtee a good player by any means. DiLeo has done really well with his picks since taking over and I’d have confidence in him to nail a 10-16 pick next year, in a seemingly deep draft.
It’s my MO to completely talk myself into a new head coach or player, even if I was lukewarm/hesitant at first. I’m cautiously optomistic however. I’ve done my research and feel pretty good about my stance.
I don’t think he’s a bad coach at all. I hope you didn’t take that away. And I would very much like the team to be about execution and tough D. I just would love them to be able to get some good frontcourt players, too. Another raw-but-athletic 6’7 swingman at the 13th pick is not what they need.
I’m just afraid that maximizing the talent of this particular roster is (maybe) .500 and a first-round exit. And a succession of new Thads and Speights’s who end up being horribly disappointing teases with flashes of talent and no basketball skill for us to get all excited about and then end up hating for torturing us with what could have been.
I guess my question is, if they don’t suck, how do they improve? I mean, past the .500 potential of this current roster? Are we going to hope Stefanski somehow gets luckier with the next big free agent in 2013 than he did with Brand? It would be pretty depressing if you’re going to tell me that we’re going to deal with years of .500 mediocrity in the hopes that a free agent will come in and save them all? They never do.
I understand that you prefer that the team not really, really suck, but I would really like to get a couple of really good players in for a few years on non-cap-crippling contracts or gamble on Stefanski being able to get a world-changing free agent (for max money) that can actually play. I don’t think they can do that without really, really sucking.
Sucking is probably more beneficial, but as long as Iguodala’s here they won’t be top 6 bad again. It’d really solve both our issues if they traded Iguodala. Then they could still play hard and develop talent + they’d win less than 30 games (assumong Iguodala was traded for a raw young piece, draft picks and expiring players, not sneaky good players like Dre Miller and Joe Smith). And as much as I like and defend Iguodala, I’ve been a strong advocate of trading him for the past 6 months.
by Jordan Sams on Aug 11, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Touche'
Charlotte was a team with little talent but a tough mentality…the 6ers have more talent than the Bobcats did last year, and they won 44 games…I think the 6ers will be better but it’s hard to say how many games they will win b/c alot of teams in the east Beefed up there rosters….I don’t care how they end up, the future seems brighter now than it was this time last year…I’ll consider the season a success if new presidwnt Rod thorn could unload Brand’s contract…either by trade or buy-out it doesn’t matter
Interesting conversation. I agree with both of you.
I am a supporter of Iguodala, but do see how the team might have done well by taking a huge step back. They could have traded away Iguodala and Sam for prospects and then drafted a more raw player like Favors (and maybe other players by acquiring picks.) That would have allowed them to build up a good talent base over the next 2-3 years while they wait to get out from under the Brand deal.
But ultimately that type of big step back move is not in line with having a GM on the hot seat or a big name, turn-around specialist of a coach.
I am looking forward to next year. I want to see how a bunch of the players develop and respond to quality coaching. But big picture the ceiling for this team is low- both because of organization and NBA wide issues (like collusion.)
The trade to make in hindsight would’ve been with the Wolves. Basic framework: Iguodala and #2 for #4, #16, #23 and either a future first or a player like Kevin Love, Brewer, maybe Jefferson.
Then Sixers could’ve then drafted Cousins and some combination Babbitt, Seraphin, Bradley, Damion James, Dom Jones, Whiteside, or Orton.
Say you make the Dalembert trade as well and you could’ve been looking at a solid core of young guys.
Jrue, Lou, Bradley, Meeks, Babbitt, Thad, Love?, Speights, Hawes, Cousins
Ages: 20, 23, 19, 22, 21, 22, 21, 23, 22, 19
There’s no way that team finishes in the top 25, yet they receive solid coaching from Collins and develop nicely. Add another top 5 pick or two and you have yourselves a chance to contend in the next decade — at least a better shot than they have no.
There’s a billion reasons why that wouldn’t work though. Two Eds would have something to do with it. And the fans who thought we were going to the finals when AI came back last year would be another reason.
by Jordan Sams on Aug 11, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Guys like Iguodala, Brand and Nocioni can implement a system- as can Turner.
If you are going completely with raw players you are really starting from ground zero. With the current roster he has enough pieces to execute on both ends, even if they are far from a finished product.
I understand that, but developing Jrue/Cousins plus multiple top-5 picks wouldn’t be too bad of a gig, in my opinion. Depends on Collins health I guess, how much time he has left, and if he could handle the criticism of winning 25 games. But again, who criticized the Blazers and Thunder when they followed the plan? What about now with the Kings? I think it gains you a lot more respect than the way the Sixers are going about it. Stuck in no-man’s land.
And there is a big difference between a competetive team with a 42 win ceiling and one with a 25 win ceiling like they would be without Iguodala, Sam and Turner.
True. But the one with a 25-win ceiling gets to pick another Top-5 player (probably), maybe for the next two years. Tony D is a pretty solid drafter. I expect with three straight Top-5 picks, and maybe a judicious trade or two, they could infuse enough young talent to get a nice base in place. Then in 2013, you take that cap space and possibly get the guy to put you over the hump (although this isn’t my favored strategy…big free agents suck for their new teams like 75% of the time), or pick up some nice pieces to build around your three Top-5 picks plus Jrue and maybe Love.
A lineup of Jrue, Love, Cousins and another two Top-5 picks, with Bradley, Meeks, Babbitt and maybe Speights for your bench, plus hopefully at least one solid 2nd-rounder (probably a backup C), would probably be a pretty good team, and have a ton of cap room in 2013 if you feel you need to do something splashy then. Could you imagine a coach who wouldn’t want to coach that roster?
I guess the biggest problem is, as I’ve said many times before…
How come we all see this, and Snider and Stefanski, who make really big whacks o’dough to run this team, don’t?
Cousins and Jrue is a pretty nice twosome to build around in itself. 19 and 20 years old.
Snider doesn’t see it, because he probably doesn’t think that’s how you improve and/or he’s scared to gut the team because who will come to the games? Who will buy Holiday jerseys when the team is winning 25 games? They don’t want to gut it, lose money, and risk that it doesn’t work, and they have to do it all over again. That’s why you need a filthy rich owner, with creativity, and the right mindset to make these things work. The Sixers basically need Liberty Ballers to turn into a billion dollar blog and buy the team.
And Stefanski doesn’t “see it” because he wants to keep his job.
I agree. My only point was that I’m not sure Stefanski has the job security and Collins has the interest to lead such a bottom up strategy.
Personally, as a fan I’d be on board if the young players show enough potential. But on a bad team its often hard to know what you have and you can get stuck over-projecting your talent, Gerald Green style, or missing out on a player who will thrive on a winning team.
Drafting is obviously not an exact science. Of course, neither is signing high-priced free agents to cap-crushing contracts that cripple your flexibility for years, and there is a lot less to lose if you blow it. :)
I’m going to have a way tougher time supporting a team shlepping Brand, Nocioni, and Willie Green out there for major minutes to get those 35-38 wins than I would supporting a team of high-potential young guys. You can get excited about potential. I can absolutely guarantee I will not buy tickets to watch the shambling corpse of Elton Brand shlep up and down the court for 38 minutes a game and get destroyed by anyone on the other team 6’9 or above for $16 million a year..
Yes, that’s purely a fan’s perspective, and I don’t have to worry about Maximizing Shareholder Value for the Evil Empire. But it’s truly sad, because this way, the Sixers will never be truly good.
This is NOT a 40-win team. A major part of the 27 win season was how BAD Elton Brand is, he only gets a year older. I’ve all but given up on Speights, he’s Chris Wilcox. A nice 15-20 MPG energy big man. Anymore minutes and he and we will get exposed. Spencer Hawes is talented….on the offensive end anyway. Our best rotational big defensively may very well be Jason Smith.
I’m sorry, I love the Sixers, but the only way we reach 40 wins is if Turner becomes Dwyane Wade. Our interior is one of the worst in the league, if not the worst. There won’t be a night where we won’t be outmatched down low in the post TK.
sixers
3 yrs ago everybody wanted a power forward, I feel we needed a 2 guard because I was perfectly alright of reggie evans and thad young sharing the 4 for another year, we went for elton brand and the rest is history. all it did was get a coach fired, and 2 yrs later we can all agree that Cheeks wasn’t the problem. Fast forward to now and I wish doug collins the best. But the lesson learned here is that one mistake can set a franchise back 3-5 yrs.
by Charlton Harley on Aug 29, 2010 9:18 PM PDT reply actions
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