The Summer of '13: Sixers' time to shine
by Jordan Sams on Jul 3, 2010 7:04 AM PDT
in Future Stuff
33 comments
Teams have been preparing for the Summer of 2010 for two or three years. They've done everything they can to make room -- even if it means giving up valuable assets (See: Bulls giving up the 17th pick to give up Hinrich) -- for a combination of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Some team(s) will hit the jackpot, but others (Knicks) will be left with bare cupboards, bad contracts, and a long road ahead. With so many teams posturing for position and only so many "big names" to go around, franchises are bound to be disappointed.
Unfortunately, or fortunately -- depending on how you look at it -- the Sixers are not one of the teams courting the King and dreaming of teaming him with Wade and Bosh. They're stuck in salary cap hell (AKA Elton Brand's contract) until the Summer of 2013. Let's break down what I think the Sixers should do between now and then, after the jump.
Youth over Success
The Sixers' goal over the next three seasons should be simple: develop their young players. The goal shouldn't be to win 50 games or make the playoffs. If either, or both happen -- as a result Jrue, Turner, Speights and company -- that's fantastic, but in no circumstance should veterans like Willie Green and Andres Nocioni steal minutes from young guys like Lou, Thad and Meeks in an effort to win as many games as possible. The same can be said for playing Brand over Speights and Hawes.
Focusing on the youth serves two purposes. One, it allows the Sixers' brass to evaluate their talent properly and ultimately make educated decisions when rookie contracts come to an end. Two, it gives them a better chance to rack up lottery picks to build around, along with The Villain.
No matter how much the Sixers overachieve and no matter how much Coach Collins milks the talent on this roster, the Sixers aren't winning a championship in the next three years, barring a miracle. Therefore there's no reason to worry about anything other than developing young talent and piecing a legitimate core together for an eventual championship run. You can only gain so much "valuable experience" from losing in the first round.
The Free Agents
Here's a tentative list of the 2013 free agents.
The big names include:
- Josh Smith
- Gerald Wallace
- Stephen Curry (R)
- Blake Griffin (R)
- Andrew Bynum
- Brandon Jennings (R)
- Chris Paul
- Al Jefferson
- Dwight Howard
- Tyreke Evans (R)
- Deron Williams
The Sixers situation
As it stands, the only current Sixers owed money after the 2012 season are Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner, who are scheduled to make 15.9 and ~8 million respectively. The Sixers should also have anywhere from 3-6 rookie contracts on their cap, and at least one of the following signed to an extension: Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Lou Williams, Spencer Hawes and Jodie Meeks.
It's impossible to predict what the Sixers roster will look like in three years, but I'm going to give it my best guess, assuming there are no trades.
Andre - 16 million
Turner - 8 million
3 rookies - combined 12 million
Jrue - 9 million
Speights - 6 million
That's 51 million committed to seven players. Depending on the accuracy of my prediction and the rise/fall of the salary cap, the Sixers may not have enough money to sign another "building block" in 2013. Which leads me to my next question ...
What to do with Andre Iguodala?
The Sixers have three options:
- Trade Andre - The Sixers could trade Andre any time during the next three years for a contract that expires before the 2012 season, a draft pick and/or one young player. That would save them anywhere between 5-10 million for the summer of 2013 and they could make a serious run at Bynum or Howard.
- Let Andre walk after the 2013 season - The Sixers could let Andre walk after the 2013 season, sign Turner to an extension and make their run at a free agent in 2014, or later.
- Re-sign Andre after the 2013 season - The Sixers could re-sign a 29 year-old Andre to an extension when his contract expires -- which happens to be the same year Evan Turner becomes a restricted free agent -- and continue to build around Jrue/Turner/Andre + the 2011-13 draft picks.
Conclusion
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Option #1 for Iguodala only...
if you can get some young talents in return. If not then no trade for Iguodala. I think I read this on realgm. Some options…trades with the Clippers and Nets. For the Clippers, Aminu and Jordan. For the Nets, Favors (Say if they land a PF free agent.).
What worries me, is that you guys here at Liberty Ballers might spend more time thinking about (and planning) the future of the Sixers, than what the actual Sixers management does.
I dislike any scenario that involves off loading Iguodala before we have a better idea of whether any of our current young players will pan out. We especially place a lot of hope on Jrue and Turner. Why is that? Do a few us deep down believe Young and Speights are not going the reach thier ceiling.
Probably right, Briz.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 3, 2010 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
If Speights can’t get his act together and learn how to pass the ball and defend, then I don’t think he’s worthy of a starting role. If Thad can ever develop a consistent outside shot I think he can play the floor as either a 3 or a 4 off the bench, and maybe start at the SF is Iguodala ends up being traded. The thing that scares me most about this team is that there is no long term plan for the frontcourt, only dreams of developing players that haven’t shown a lot of promise.
Few Opinions looking at the Sixer Future!
-I really hoped that Sixer’s Manangement dealt Andre in this year’s draft for either Favors or Cousins. Not sure if the Sixers made him available or any of the top lottery teams were interested. Having a young prospect to develop with Evan Turner & Jrue Holliday was the idea behind my thinking.
-The Sixer organization is in a real tough spot, financially speaking. They need to get fans back in their arena and rebuilding, not winning will not accomplish this. Having a playoff team will accomplish this, but will not allow the organization to put together a true titile contender. The team needs to continue being in the lottery, in hopes of landing elite talent, to add to the core.
-No matter how improved Elton Brand becomes under Doug Collins, no team will take on his contract, due to his age and injury history. Either deal him on the last year of his contract, when it is expiring or buy him out now! If any team wants Andre in the next year or two, see if they can package him with Brand for less coming back in the deal. Buy out seems more realistic to occur.
-Why not give all our young prospects time on the court to see what they got and develop! If it means starting Speights or Hawes at Center, Young or Speights at PF, Young at SF if Andre is dealt, so be it! We aren’t going to contend anytime soon and need to secure high draft picks to continue adding to the core!
Conclusion
-In my opinion, I would buy out Elton Brand mid-way through the season if he is unable to be dealt. Seek a trade for Andre, either for a future lottery pick or younger, cheaper talent in return. With many teams in play with this 2010 free agent class, the Sixer franchise can either trade for a player who may cost less than in prior seasons or be able to unload a contract with teams who have alot of cap space. A few examaples of what I am talking about: Beasley, Favors maybe available for just taking on their contracts, due to cap restrictions of landing elite FA’s. If the Knicks fail to land elite FA’s, why not entertain a deal of Andre for expiring Eddie Curry and either a draft pick or a younger prospect.
Maybe, but I still dont see the Sixers winning a championship in the near future even with the current group of youngsters.
The way I see it, Jrue and Turner will be very good, not great. You need great players to win the NBA Championship. In the past 20 years only the 04 Pistons are the exception. I just dont see it happening.
Why buy out Brand? That is simply throwing money away for neglible gain in return. Brand’s value lies in the fact that he is an expiring contract in the summer or 2013, either clearing cap space for us, or in a trade for young players and draft picks. He can also act as a mentor for our our young bigs, if he buys into Collins role for him.
As for the many teams under the cap and this years free agent list. Many second and third level talent players are likely to be over paid this summer as there are more teams with genuine cap space than quality players. After the big names are gone, a few teams are not going to have much to show for all thier efforts, and this is when some marginal talent is going to cash in.
Buyout open minutes for some of our younger prospects
Holding onto Brand could hurt the team in two areas: winning too many games, not securing high draft picks and not giving some of our younger players enough time on the court to develop. Our GM made a simialr move a few years ago when he dealt Korver to allow Thad more playing time. A buyout only happens if the team cannot find a trade partner by the trade deadline this season.
Never understood the logic of – he makes money so you have to pay him.
If the ‘younger prospects’ can’t outplay brand in practice they don’t DESERVE to play
by jemagee on Jul 4, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Trading Andre is the option I’d want most but as long as we don’t let him expire, I guess it’s alright. Howard is the grand prize in the 2013 draft class, and depending the quality of lottery picks we get, perhaps another top 3 pick in the next 3 years from either a trade or drafting spot, we could have one of the more attractive landing spots for a high quality FA. In 2013, this is what our Roster could look like.
PG:Jrue
SG:Turner/Lottery/FA
SF: Turner/Lottery/FA
PF:Speights/Lottery/FA
C: Dwight Howard/Lottery
If we were to, in these next three years, acquire another high lottery pick, getting it this year would be ideal as to allow the new player/Jrue/Turner to develop together. Hopefully Ed it gone by the time 2013 rolls around, but like Jordan said, that’s pretty far off.
By the summer of 2013, Hawes, Speights and Young will have been signed to unearned long term contracts and the sixers will still be cap room less
One other impossible prediction is how the 2011 season being completely lost to labor strife (after reading that SI article, I’m convinced that a lock out equivalent to what the NHL suffered is coming) will affect the future.
of course there’s also the dumb fantasy that comcast comes to its senses, realizes corporations should not own professional sports teams and finds someone very rich to buy the team (like larry ellison when he fails to get the warriors)
by jemagee on Jul 3, 2010 11:22 AM PDT reply actions
Ummm, not sure if you know this, but...
The world is ending before the Summer of ‘13.
If it doesn’t end, though, I will give you props on this post then.
I write about basketball players with Ridiculous Upside. I know you'll love it.
by Scott Schroeder on Jul 3, 2010 11:52 AM PDT reply actions
Maybe it’s just me but this whole 2012 misinterpretation of the Maya language joke thing is one of the best examples I’ve ever seen of beating a dead horse
by jemagee on Jul 3, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
I saw Chris Pauls name as a FA
and jizzed in my pants. I would be ecstatic if this happens. Thanks for giving me some fleeting hope it could happen.
I believe CHris Paul will be on another team no later than February of 2011 – a team that will give him an extension as soon as they can :)
by jemagee on Jul 3, 2010 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah! This is the piont I was trying to make in my “Slow down rebuilding?” post. That’s what they need to do. Take their time and whatever happens happens. What do they have to lose? Great job Jordan! Hahaha.
Tinger
The flaw in your ‘rebuilding’ plan is that the sixers have never really tried to rebuild – and there was no indication that they planned to any time soon…Brands bad contract makes rebuilding almost impossible without giving away Iguodala.
by jemagee on Jul 3, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno, I think its too early to talk about this stuff, I want to see how Iggy and Turner play together, if Brand can be productive, if Thad and Speights reach their potential. I think if the team doesn’t contend for the playoffs by midseason, we’d have to trade Iguodala. I’m too excited for next year to worry about the summer of ’13. Lets see if we have a star in Evan Turner first
He's back
Lot of if’s in there
and the rational for giving up Iguodala based on playoff positioning doesn’t make sense (especially if the reason they aren’t close to the playoffs is, say, having no defense in the front court)
You trade Iguodala only if you have to, not being in playoff contention doesn’t qualify as have to.
by jemagee on Jul 4, 2010 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Not being in playoff contention seems to be “another opportunity to get a talented young player”. Which is exactly what’s necessary here.
Iguodala isn’t exactly old, and the rest of the guards and wing players are young except Willie Green. The onyl way I would ever trade Iguodala is for a player like Cousins/Favors or an already proven younger player.
That’s kind of what I’m getting at. I don’t want to trade Iguodala. I think I’m pretty well on record with that. I think he’s the only player on the roster that we all know is a reliable NBA-quality player. He’s the last person I would want to trade.
My point is, that I agree with John (I think this is what he’s getting at, at any rate) that you only trade Iguodala if you can get enough value for him to drastically improve the team. The idea that was originally stated was that Iguodala should be traded if the team doesn’t look like a playoff contender this season. My response to that is that this team shouldn’t look like a playoff contender. There isn’t nearly enough talent, especially in the frontcourt. The idea of using Iguodala as a trading chip to make some sort of cosmetic move to squeak into the 8th position is insane. Playoff position, or even playoff contention altogether, should not be a team goal this year. Maximizing the minutes of the young players and evaluating them as pieces of a future contending team should be the only goal this season.
We tend to look at iguodala like he’s some sort of grizzled veteran on his last legs. He’s all of 26. Seriously, people, he’s young enough and good enough that he should be a given in the “young core” we all talk about. His contract is perfectly reasonable for his level of production. Players do need to be paid. We tend to look at him like he’s dead weight, like Brand. He’s clearly not. There’s a long way from “stealing money Brand-style” to “the next Kobe Bryant.”
I think most of us on here can agree that if Turner/Jrue/Iguodala don’t work out in the next couple of seasons, Iguodala is the prime candidate for a trade.
I would go with option #1, especially if the trade landed us more draft picks.
Howard would be the obvious target amongst these FAs. I’m hesitant about Bynum – he seems injury prone.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
I’ve had a man crush on Bynum since he entered the league, very skilled and more of a solid player than people give him credit for. Legit 7 footer with decent post moves and above average shot blocking, in the mold of Favors really. He’s shown heart similar to Andre to play through injuries, however with his ailing knees are a liability, it drives Lakers fans crazy because, as everyone saw in the playoffs, a healthy and contributing Bynum is capable of anchoring the shotblocking and rebounding of the team. The Lakers could not be stopped when Bynum was healthy and playing at high level.
Sixers did hire Quin Snyder for player development. They need to give him the players and let him do his work. I think that the only way Brand could possibly be traded is if Iguodala goes with him. That’s not going to happen. So while waiting for the contract to expire, develop the players. Load up on young talent. The problem is, I don’t think anybody would be willing to give up picks for players like Green or Kapono. Maybe add in Meeks or Smith but I doubt that will work either. But put Snyder to work to keep the team busy while waiting for Brand’s contract to expire.
Tinger
Future of the 6ers
I think the 6ers should be in all out rebuild mode…I beleiev they’re not b/c they can’t move Brand…I believe that that they should attempt to buy him out next year..a guy I think the 6ers should really go after is Kevin Love..he’s not on the market(to my knowledge) but I think he would be a perfect fit for what this team wants to be..he can stretch the floor, is a terrific rebounder, and a great outlet passer..pair him with Jrue/Turner/Iggy or Jrue/Turner/Thad, and you’ll be a great fast break team
Between now and summer 2013 the 6ers will be in the lottery at least one other time, but I don’t see them as a high lottery team, meaning bottom 5 in the NBA..they can get lucky like they did this year, but who knows…either way the bulk of thier work will be with that front-court…do they bring Thad back???I like him, but the jury is still out..if he was having a better season, I think they woudl’ve moved Iggy last trade deadline b/c they had plenty of takers..but you don’t know with him, one thing’s for sure though, he has to play better D…the jury’s still out on Hawes & Spieghts as well…Speights is a 6th or 7th man to me, and Hawes is a fringe starting C…in order for the 6ers to keep him I think he has to be a legit top 15 C..which isn’t really saying much b/c that’s the weakest position in the league, but they’ll prolly hold on to him for that reason, it really isn’t much else out there at that position..
But this whole thing depends on Turner & Holiday, and I think they know that…In order for this team to contend in the next 5 years or so, those guys have to be all-star caliber players, and we don’t know that yet…in fact the only thing we know about this team is that they’re flirting with the luxury tax and there’s a log jam at the 3 & 4 spots..Iggy, Thad, Nocioni, Kapono(who’ll in all likelyhood will be moved or not brought back), Brand, Speights(don’t consider him a legite 5), and Smith..all these guys can make an argument to be in the rotation but players(especially young ones) need significant floor time to improve and it’s not going to be enough minutes for all. With all that said this is what I think they should do….Movable/expendible players-Iggy, Brand, Kapono, Green, Speights, Smith, Battie.
Keepers/future of 6ers-Holiday, Turner, Young, Meeks, Hawes(starting or off bench), Lou( only b/c bench scoring is always in demand)
Players they should pursue(by 2013) via trade or FAgency- K.Love, J.Green, J.Smooth, D.Howard, B.Griffin, D.Favors…this is assuming that Holiday/Turner/Young(Iggy) are as good as we hope…Even though they haven’t proven it to this point..I think the 6ers are looking to the future…but like everyone else(fans) they really don’t know what they have
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