Poll: Evan Turner, Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins?
by Jordan Sams on Jul 15, 2010 4:24 PM PDT
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PrintThe day prior to the draft exactly 80% of the LB readers who voted were in favor of drafting Evan Turner number two. 24 hours later they got their wish and a fresh Villain tee to boot. With the draft and summer league now in the rear-view mirror, Turner averaging less than 10 points on 33% shooting, and Boogie Cousins shredding the Vegas Summer League like Delonte West shreds ... donuts, I thought it'd be a good time to take a re-vote. Overreaction, irrational decisions, and overly-dramatic emotions in play, let's do this!
It's the night of June 24. You are Ed Stefanski. Who do you select with the number two pick, knowing what (little) you know now?
I'm not cruel enough to bring up the fact that the Sixers could have traded down to four, drafted Cousins, and picked up more assets. Whoops.
P.S. The Villain shirts are non-refundable.
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How much stock is that? The question wasn’t about whether anyone was betting their house that Cousins would have a better NBA career than Turner. The question could be reasonably interpreted as right now, what is your guess? Right now, it is rational to guess that Cousins will have a better NBA career than Turner. Perhaps six months from now the guess will be different.
To be fair, based on Summer League performance, I am going to have a better NBA career than Turner. But I don’t expect that to continue, and if it does, I am going to be a very wealthy individual, which makes me happy. :)
Seriously, he’s not the kind of player that dominates Summer League. The sick athletes are the dominant guys (see, for example, Speights, Marreese, in his rookie year). He’s more of a cerebral player without insane athleticism, which we all knew going in. He hasn’t been playing full-speed basketball, and the guys he’s playing against have, for the most part. Which we also all knew going in.
And everyone is kvetching because he didn’t dominate Summer League. Which we also all knew going in. :)
I don’t know about kvetching, but it is rational to recalibrate expectations based on competition that is more similar to the NBA.
Not in 5 pickup games.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
A mini-camp plus 5 games against near-NBA player, most of whom are literally competing for jobs based on their play, is more informative than 30 games against guys who will never sniff the NBA and who play with different rules.
My different view isn’t that I can predict the future based on Summer league. My different view is that you apparently think the NCAA career is highly informative and I think it is marginally informative. Otherwise going high in the draft would have more correlation with NBA success than it does and guys like Tyler Hansbrough – who had an even better NCAA career than Turner – would automatically be a high pick.
Givony of Draft Express has made a career out of scouting HS, NCAA, etc. games to try and predict NBA success, so he would be the last person in the world to devalue that info. But here is what he tweeted after watching Turner in the Summer league:
“Evan Turner running into many of same problems James Harden has so far—not exceptionally athletic, and not a great shooter. Needs to adjust.”
And he will adjust. Harden had a decent rookie season in OKC, despite being a worse ball-handler, decision maker, and less projectable jump shot.
Yes, I think three seasons of organized college basketball means more than 5 pickup games where Mike Green ran the point half the time. Sample size, please. Try not to extrapolate a career out of a crappy week coming off months of not playing in an actual game.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not the one claiming Turner is a bust. I said above that I still expect him to be an NBA starter. In other words, I expect him to play world’s better than he did in Summer league. But I wouldn’t have drafted him #2, and his Summer league made me less happy about drafting him #2. Meanwhile, my main concern about Cousins was his weight and conditioning. The fact that he already looks to be in significantly better shape in Summer league lessens (but doesn’t totally alleviate) that concern. I don’t expect Cousins to dominate the NBA or be an all star in his first year either.
It’s been pretty much universally agreed upon that Turner had a moderately high ceiling and a very high floor, whereas Cousins had a ridiculous ceiling and huge bust potential.
I was all for taking a risk on Cousins if the package was there, but the F.O. either didn’t get the right deal or were sold on Turner at 2. Regardless, Cousins’ impressive few games and Turner’s poor showing does not have much affect on how I feel about either player.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Just like statistics sample size matters. It isn’t really rational to project a player’s future success on 4 games irregardless of where they were played and who they were played against.
Summer league play is closer to regular NBA than NCAA play is. IMO, the difference in similarity is more important than the smaller sample size.
“Summer league play is closer to regular NBA than NCAA play is.”
I don’t buy that. I just can’t see how guys who hadn’t played ball in 6 months and never played with each other, playing loosely coached/organized games in a gym has more in common with the NBA than say… the NCAA tourney.
Overreacting to Turners’ sub par summer league is just as silly as overreacting to it would be if he had lit it up.
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All of the guys in Summer league are trying to make a career out of pro basketball, so it’s just silly to say they “hadn’t played in 6 months”. Most of them play often. There is a special case with the likely top lottery picks that they don’t want to risk a serious injury right before getting a guaranteed multi-million dollar contract, but they should still be in the gym most every day practicing basketball. Even for that special case, one has to think up some argument for why Turner should look more rusty than the other guys who projected as high lottery picks did.
Beyond all that, the reason why the Summer league is more relevant to some types of assessments is the athletes are much closer to NBA athletes and the game style is still closer to the NBA than the NCAA is, despite to limited exposure of the team players to each other. So if you want to see how whether a guy can score against a tough man to man defender or whether he can cover an NBA level player, Summer league is more relevant. If you wanted to judge whether he could make a foul shot in front of a big audience or if a guy is well liked by his mates, NCAA would be more relevant to that.
“All of the guys in Summer league are trying to make a career out of pro basketball, so it’s just silly to say they "hadn’t played in 6 months". Most of them play often. "
How about playing together? That doesn’t mean anything?
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
It means something, but apparently not what it means to you. As I noted in another post, Jon Givony who runs draftexpress.com uses the Summer league to update his evaluations of players. He also uses HS all star games and various forms of TeamUSA type tryouts which have even less prior team practice than the mini-camps on the front end of the NBA Summer league. Perhaps there is some other school of NBA scout that advocates ignoring all games where the prospects haven’t practiced together for a month or more on the grounds that they are totally uninformative? That would be news to me, so let me know about it if you come across it.
Ah, I see, so they use these tryouts, all star games, etc. to evaluate players. Perhaps it would just be incompetent not to cover these games, correct? You’re still ignoring the fact that playing with teammates whom you’ve practiced with has more meaning than pick up games.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Personally, I want to call bullsh!t on the arguement that Turners’ poor performances were due him being out of game shape. But I never watched any of the Summer League games, so can not comment one way or the other. I’ve yet to hear Levin, Sams or anyone who did watch the games say Turner was not in shape.
I watched all five games. He looked like he was off a step. He also looked frustrated. Some of his shot selections were just bad, and that indicates to me that he struggles on the fly. Perhaps this is due to a lack of athleticism.
Also, not surprisingly, his worst games came when playing alongside a scrub PG as opposed to Jrue. Upon this, there were other issues with him trying to learn to play off the ball.
What is important to me is that he showed flashes of good play. I suppose it’s difficult for someone to play consistently well when they’re not in game shape.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
I think you will be having the problem Sacramento had last year.
Turner needs the ball to be as effective as possible. Problem is you have a very nice young PG who can create. Either Turner needs to demand to be the dominant guard or he’ll struggle to adjust this season.
"We're not talking about me and Darko in the same sentence." - Chris Webber vs KAHN!
by caseycheesecake on Jul 16, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Jordan
“My counter to this is, Wall can make up for whatever he lacks with his insane athletisism. Turner can’t. After watching the OSL it seems Turner has to be in great shape, fully adjusted and on his game to have the impact we expect…And I think he will come November (so long away).”
(Jordan let me know if I’m misinterpreting what I read as to not put words in your mouth)
Also, Jefu and I both watched the SL games and he looks noticeably a step slower.
Yeah, I’d compare Turner’s Summer League to the way Andre Miller ususally begins seasons. Dre is one of my favorite players to watch, and I think he’s been an underrated point guard his whole career, but unlike athletic guards he can’t be effective unless he’s in tip-top shape, which explains his slow starts at the beginning of seasons. I felt the same way when I watched Turner. Him and Miller have a lot of similarities in their games now that I think about it.
No matter how many jumpers ET was taking a day, or running, etc., you can’t be in game-shape unless you play in actual games. I’d expect him to hit his stride somewhere between game 10-15 this season.
Does ET begin the season as a starter, key reserve, or riding the pine for the first half of the season?
Starter.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 16, 2010 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Givony isn’t a reporter who needs to give verbal coverage of every game featuring a player. If you read his profile of Evan Turner, he placed relatively a lot weight on Turner’s performance at the Junior National Team Tryouts in 2009 because he was matched up against a higher level of competition and because the style of play there wasn’t zone oriented (i.e. was more like the NBA).
Derrick Rose: 9.5 ppg, 5.5 apg, 4.0 topg (29% fg) – 29mpg
Evan Turner: 9.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 3.4 topg (33% fg) – 28mpg
Yes, but that’s different. Derrick Rose wasn’t picked by the Sixers, therefore everyone knew he would be good.
It is different because Rose was drafted to play PG, Rose was playing PG, NBA PG position takes longer to learn, Rose had superior speed for the PG position, and Turner played PG in the NCAA but would be a little too slow to be a top prospect at PG in the NBA.
So wait. You’re saying that it’s difficult for Rose to play the position that he’s played in college and high school so there should be some adjustment time, but Evan Turner, who dominated the ball in college and will be learning to play off it, should come in right away and succeed.
I find this faulty logic.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Uh no, I didn’t say any of that. I gave reasons for why dweebowitz’s comparison wasn’t very interesting.
But you are right that there is faulty logic to believing that a guy who performed very well at PG in the NCAA is ready to step right in and perform well at SG in the NBA. Unfortunately the one’s being tripped up by that faulty logic is the drafting team (and, of course, its fans).
I understand the transition will be difficult, which is why it is imperative to have patience while he figures it out. We’re not contending this year — I have no problem letting him go through the growing pains all season.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Fine, but the poll didn’t ask a question like “If Turner’s contract wasn’t automatically guaranteed would you release him?” The poll asked which player would you pick in a do-over. So I’m not sure who you arguing with. If you want to argue that Turner will probably be as valuable as Rose, I’ll take the other side of that and give you odds.
How did you get that argument? I think Turner is going to be very good, and no one is going to remember this bad week in a few months. People play bad sometimes.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
CAN SOMEBODY GIVE ME A HAND WITH ALL THIS SKY FALLING ON MY HEAD?!?!
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
I’m sure we’re going to have this poll 3-4 more times this season. Nothing spurs more discussion than “shoulda coulda woulda”
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
This baby’s got legs!
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish there was a negative reputation button. Not because you like the Cowboys, I just hate when anybody’s reasoning for anything is “____ sucks.”
SEAN SUCKS!
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 16, 2010 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That makes no sense and you sir are a frontrunning bastard.
That is all.
This is the new/current account of RyanGiggs11
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
by Scott Kessler on Jul 16, 2010 7:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey, hey, hey. Hey. The Eagles have 9X the amount of playoff wins as the Cowboys since ’95. Call the man what you want, but front-runner he is not.
He went for the rings, clearly. You can one say the Eagles have sucked if you’re referring to a lack of Super Bowl rings. Otherwise, why else would he be a Cowboys fan?
This is the new/current account of RyanGiggs11
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
by Scott Kessler on Jul 16, 2010 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions
If he’s at least like 23-25, then it makes total sense.
This is the new/current account of RyanGiggs11
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
by Scott Kessler on Jul 16, 2010 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
potential
I think that given the sixers current roster they needed to focus on future potential. I am of the mindset right or wrong that Turner is near his ceiling. I think Favors if willing to commit has a much higher ceiling. Lets face it the sixers need to basically rebuild because they are not going to compete with Brand eating up a giant chunk of salary. Jrue is a future all-star and Iggy is a solid #2 guy, but Turner in no way shape or form can be #1 go to guy in this league. He struggles to score against guys in the summer league and if you watched a game you would realize he flat out gets locked down by average summer league defenders. I like Turner has a late lottery pick, but based on his POTENTIAL AND GIVEN THE SIXERS CURRENT SITUATION THERE IS NO WAY THEY SHOULD HAVE PICKED HIM! This pick although not a complete disaster will still not get the sixers into the desired direction. They should have taken a big man who could team up with Jrue and create an inside outside game which the sixers have lacked since the early 80’s!
What would you say is the last prior thing of importance that happened? If the answer is “not much”, Psychologists have word for this kind of cognitive bias; it’s called “anchoring”.
It’s summer league. End of story.
Let the Jruth be told.
by guitarmouse35 on Jul 17, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions
All the P&Ters must be lingering. Bastard children of Seth’s asexual reproductive system.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 15, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Predraft, there was a very strong campaign on here (largely from the powers that be) that Turner was the right pick. Most of the arguement centred around being nba ready, the team needing a number one scoring option, and drafting the best talent available, regardless of position.
Not everyone agreed that Turner was the right choice then. It’s still largely the same few who argued against Turner two months ago, still argueing against him now. It’s the silent majority from the predraft polls who are more likely the swing voters at the moment.
I find it hysterical all the “I wanted cousins all along!” people we have. Either all of you are new visitors to this site, or you’re frauds. Turner was the consensus #1, with Favors generally coming in second
First Poll
Second Poll
Final poll
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Jul 16, 2010 8:20 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It’s a joke
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by Michael Levin on Jul 16, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s amazing how five pick up games can change peoples’ opinions.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Nobody in this thread claimed they wanted Cousins all along. I remember a few people arguing for him prior to the draft, and I’ve only seen a few doing an “I told you so” now. Which thread are all these frauds posting to?
he’s referring to the prior polls. Try clicking on the links.
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
Derek said “I find it hysterical all the "I wanted cousins all along!" people we have”. That means he think a lot of people are changing their vote and claiming they were for Cousins before the draft. I didn’t ask for evidence that people changed their vote. I asked for evidence that a lot of people voting for Cousins in this thread also claim to have voted for Cousins before the draft.
Unfortunately what you’re asking for you’re not going to get. That’s the problem when you’re trying to compare an anonymous poll with peoples’ claims. The only thing we have to go by is trends via polls.
I suppose the voting results are shocking to some people who don’t give as much weight to SL as others :)
"I admire his competitiveness. As much as I admire it, I thought that he was trying too hard."- Eddie Jordan
This is gonna get old real fast.
Are we gonna have to go through this after every single day of camp? Or just every couple of weeks?
There were reasons Cousins was passed over and those reasons haven’t changed yet. Same with Turner being picked. Summer League games are always dominated by the athletic freaks. Always. Is the talent technically closer to the NBA than the NCAA? Yes. But the style is pickup ball. Pickup ball is not indicative of much. An example:
I went to Syracuse University. Any given year they have either a good basketball team or a great basketball team. Some of the basketball players played pickup games at the university gym with us regular guys. I played with some of these guys several times. I think it’s safe to say the size and talent gulf was wide. I once took a starter off dribble and then hit a pull jumper near the top of the key. It was a nice play and I got props for it. Did that mean I should have been considered for the varsity team? (Here is a hint: Hell no.)
I am waiting for teamwork, coaching and organized play to start before I make my snap judgements. I suggest that everyone do the same. Otherwise you will be stressed the hell out until the real games actually start.
by NOLACuse on Jul 16, 2010 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I’ve stayed away from posting this, because after all what’s the point- the Sixers have made their decision. Evan Turner is their selection and that is that.
The only thing that bother me is that the reasons given for selecting Turner now appear to be false. Based on his performance in the Summer league he is not an NBA – ready player. His maturity seems to have disappeared, replaced by a sullen attitude when things didn’t go his way on the floor.
Now we hear he was out of shape and we shouldn’t read too much into that. And, since he will be playing off the ball, he needs to make a big adjustment in his game.
I wanted Derrick Favors in the beginning and I still do. I think he would have been a better “fit” for the Sixers now and in the future, regardless of how well Evan Turner turns out as a player. Maybe Turner is a bust, and maybe he isn’t. We still need a real Center and a real Power forward and I’m not comforted with who we have on the roster.
But you are all so smart…….you all agreed that Turner was the guy, so quit whining about it already!
Based on his performance in the Summer league he is not an NBA – ready player. His maturity seems to have disappeared, replaced by a sullen attitude when things didn’t go his way on the floor.
Now we hear he was out of shape and we shouldn’t read too much into that. And, since he will be playing off the ball, he needs to make a big adjustment in his game.
The argument was never really “he’s more NBA ready” though that’s still true when compared to Favors.) The argument was that he was more likely to reach his lofty ceiling than either Favors or Cousins. These Summer League games changed nothing in that regard.
by yosoysean on Jul 16, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey thanks for stopping by. Don’t let the mainstream media hit you on the way out.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 18, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Doug Collins Talks About Lottery Picks in Summer League...
In this video, Doug Collins talks about why NBA lottery picks almost always stink it up in summer league:
Doug Colins, Interview, NBA Basketball Summer League 2010
As I think I stumped for at the time, I would have traded Iguodala to Minny/Krazy Khan for the #4 and #16 and taken Cousins and Luke B abbitt IN Addition to Turner at #2. (since Paul george didnt last to 16).
Khan ended up dumping 16 AND Ryan Gomes to Portland for Martell Webster….just one more reason to hire pritchard to replace stefanski ASAP.
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