Sixers' Draft Profiles: Wesley Johnson
by Jordan Sams on May 7, 2010 12:02 AM PDT
Email
Print#1 John Wall
#2 Evan Turner
Here's Wesley Johnson ...
Scouting Reports
What position will he play?
Johnson fits the mold of your prototypical NBA small forward from a physical standpoint, and then some. His excellent size, length and athleticism give him a terrific base from which to build off of, and he's really rounded out his skill-set now as well.
Can he be "The Stretcher" I wrote about in my 'needs' post?
The biggest development that must be discussed is the improvement Johnson has made as a perimeter shooter. A career 31.6% 3-point shooter going into this season, Johnson has made 25 of his 55 attempts from beyond the arc thus far, good for 46%. While the number of attempts he's averaging (just over 3) per game leaves something to be desired as far as the sample size is concerned, the smooth mechanics, deep range, quick release and terrific separation he creates elevating away from his defender should ease most of the concerns teams might have. As we discussed in the past, Johnson's issues mostly stemmed from poor shot-selection, and since that problem has completely evaporated, his percentages have sky-rocketed accordingly.
Will his offense be limited to three-pointers on the next level?
He has great quickness making his way into the lane, and appears to have worked extremely hard on polishing up some very impressive spin moves.
Developing his post game would probably be the next step, as he's not always able to take advantage of his superior physical tools against weak defenders. He currently lacks much in the ways of footwork and doesn't appear to be the toughest guy around.
Still not what you would call a great shot-creator, Johnson continues to struggle to get to the free throw line at a high rate. His ball-handling skills are average at best, as his left hand is weak, he has a difficult time changing directions with the ball in tight spaces, and he's not very effective if he's unable to beat his matchup with his pure first step.
If you're looking for a superstar, Johnson probably isn't it ...
... there are legitimate concerns about whether he can be the type of player that can take over (or finish off) an NBA game as a one on one scorer, particularly when being matched up with similarly sized NBA small forwards.
... but he'll be an excellent role player.
[He's] extremely unselfish and seemingly an outstanding teammate (on and off the court reportedly), the ball rarely gets stuck in his hands for more than a few seconds. He's a terror in transition and a force on the offensive glass, averaging over 10 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted.
He projects to be a solid, versatile NBA defender.
Defensively, we run into the same issue we always do with Syracuse players-his team plays zone pretty much exclusively. Considering Johnson's phenomenal physical tools, though-size, length, athleticism, and his high activity level, it's not difficult to project him as a versatile and very effective defender at the NBA level. He already contributes nearly two steals and two blocks per game, and is able to switch seamlessly onto a variety of different styles of opponents without much of an issue.
Said to have limited potential ...
Considering that he turns 23 this July, his upside may not be deemed quite as high as other combo forwards in this draft, such as Al-Farouq Aminu for example, who is three years younger than him.
Oh no! He lacks killer instinct!
He lacks a killer instinct and can be too unselfish at times. He looks as though he might be more comfortable as the No. 2 guy on a team.
Is Wes lock for the top 5?
While scouts would like to see him get stronger and be more assertive, every GM we spoke to has him ranked in the top five. That's pretty amazing for a guy who came into the season not ranked in the top 25 on any team's board.
Wesley Johnson on Twitter
Comparisons
DX: Best case - Shawn Marion
Worst case - Travis Outlaw
Chad Ford: Joe Johnson
NBADraft.net - Eddie Johnson/Shawn Marion
YouTube
My take:
I'm a big fan of Wesley Johnson, and I think the Shawn Marion comparison fits well. There's no doubt in my mind that Wes will be a solid NBA player, and contribute right away. Not to mention, he's a perfect fit for the Sixers because of his length, athleticism, and defense. Plus he'd add much-needed three-point shooting to the team without sacrificing defense or rebounding. The question then becomes, is he worth using a top 6-7 pick on, especially for a re-building franchise. Guys like Aminu, Davis, Orton and Whiteside are thought to have much higher upside than Johnson, but they also have a higher bust-ability. So, do you go with the guy with limited upside and limited bust-ability, or take a chance on a guy with "Ridiculous Upside" and high bust-ability? It's a question I'm not ready to answer yet. What do you guys think?
Up next: Al-Farouq Aminu
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don’t think Johnson’s upside is as limited as some, a notion which seems to mostly be stemming from little more than his age. His improvement from his last season at Iowa State to this year was anything but incremental. Heck, it was probably the best case scenario you could have hoped for. His first step and body control aren’t bad, at this point held back primarily by his handle and his assertiveness. With his quick release, it should open up some driving lanes, and I could see him getting more opportunities at the rim as his career progresses.
That being said, he does have a tendency to float around on the perimeter a bit, and I get the “may not have the mentality to be a #1 option”, but to me that is indicative not of his potential, but of his probability of reaching his potential.
(for the record, I don’t think Johnson has “focal point of the offense” offensive potential, but I think people tend to get carried away with how many people actually do have that).
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
(for the record, I don’t think Johnson has "focal point of the offense" offensive potential, but I think people tend to get carried away with how many people actually do have that).
While I agree, no one on the Sixers has that potential so drafting another guy without could be problematic for future success.
by Michael Levin on May 8, 2010 4:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I see only Wall and Favors as even having substantial potential for that category. Of course, we will be able to look back years later and see one or two other guys who turned out to have that ability, but our chances of picking them out ahead of the draft are low.
Turner, Aminu, Cousins, and further along (but more unlikely) Dominique Jones and Paul George
by Michael Levin on May 8, 2010 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Consensus is that Iguodala is not a “focal point of the offense” candidate. I see Turner, who has yet to play an NBA game, as probably a better ball handler than Iguodala but less of an overall athlete. So I’m curious to learn what gives other people the notion that Turner is likely to be a high scorer from either insider the paint or outside at the NBA level.
He is not reliant on elite athleticism to score. I think his craftiness and in between game translates well to the NBA. He will need to improve his jumper.
I see him style wise as sharing some skills with John Salmons, but with a much better ability to score from 5-15 feet and a better feel for the game.
I agree. It’s hard for me to see why he doesn’t have as much upside as the other guys mentioned or even why Shawn Marion is the best case (Shawn Marion’s early career stats in Phoenix might be better than the best case because of the particular offense Marion was a part of, but that’s a different issue).
I don’t really get the Shawn Marion comparison much at all. Sure, in the big rebounder, gets blocks and steals stats I guess it makes sense (although I don’t see Johnson being a big rebounder in the NBA), but in terms of offensive games, their shots could not be more different. Even during Marion’s early career when he was above average from deep, it was ugly, and he never really had the natural release of the midrange game Johnson has.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
I. love. Wesley. Johnson.
Yes, I’m a Syracuse graduate. So I’m very, very, very biased. But I would do anything to see him wear a Sixers uniform.
Johnson is a pretty safe pick…he should be a good contributor….I just would have trouble drafting him at 5 if I know that I can get Henry or George by trading down. Chances are, I couldn’t find a worthy trading down scenario after the top 4 picks…….but I would try.
Bottom line, I don’t draft him at 5……but I might live to regret it,
A. you don’t know that
B. The sixers won’t pick 5th and johnson most likely is gone by 6
by jemagee on May 7, 2010 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course I don’t know that for sure. Just like you don’t know for sure that Johnson is going to be a better player than Henry.
I know the sixers won’t draft 5th…..just saying if I had the 5th pick and Johnson is on the board what I would do If I were making the call for a franchise. And while Johnson probably goes 5th, I don’t think it’s that impossible for him to go 6th.
If he’s there at 6, I pull the trigger w/o hesitation. I heard a better comparison, thinking of him as a more defensive-minded Rashard Lewis(slightly shorter though). Put a guy like that between Jrue & Dala, they’d be solid
Rashard Lewis is one of the best shooters in the past 10 years. Wes Johnson won’t be. He’s better on defense, in transition, and rebounding but we’re not drafting a pure shooter here. He showed in one year he can shoot, but it’s not a safe bet he is the guy to stretch the defense we’re looking for. Regardless, he’s a more complete player than that.
by Michael Levin on May 8, 2010 4:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Rashard is also pretty unique in terms of strengths and weaknesses. he is a perfect fit next to Howard, but might struggle to be net positive on some teams with weaker centers.
Wes sounds like a more a traditional fit at SF. Someone who could help most teams, but not as unique of a talent. That is both good and bad.
Think about it for a bit
Wesley Johnson and Iguodala can work together pretty well. Wes has some trouble putting the ball on the court, but (eventually) Jrue and Iguodala can help cover up for that. Wes is a pretty darn good shooter and can cover up for Iguodala on that, and Wes is a decent defender (but then Iguodala can be considered an elite defender too…)
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"Keep your head up and don't let anything get to you." - Dante Bichette Jr.
#3 + #6 + #15 + #1 = QPU #25, and no, it's not because of Anthony Carter
If we get him at 6 I will be happy.
The only other person I’d take from the players said to have ‘more upside’ would be Ed Davis.
A question for those more knowledgeable about Johnson. I’ve read somewhere that Johnson’s upside might be a Rich Man’s JRich more than a Marion type. Would any of you say that would be an accurate description?
Yeah, not really a comparison at all. He’ll never create his own shot the way Richardson does.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
I think the comparisons have to stay within the same position. For example, if you say Johnson could be like Robert Horry at SF, that means he would not affect the game like Robert Horry.
For example, a PF who plays good defense at PF and is a long range shooting threat has a different affect on his team than a SF who plays good defense at SF and is a long range shooting threat. In this case, the long shooting range at PF is also more unusual and may have a more beneficial effect on a team’s penetration ability and rebounding differential, since he tends to draw a good rebounder or good shotblocker from the other team away from the basket.
I’m still torn up about it. STOP BREAKING MY HEART BEN
by Michael Levin on May 8, 2010 4:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Another question for you Johnsonophiles…
Let’s say the Sixers get a defensive guru like Collins or Thibodeau as head coach. Do any of you think a rotation of Jrue/Dala/Johnson/Brand/Sam with Lou, Thad, Meeks & Speights off the bench could be a top 5 defense next year? A 6 seed in the East?
Top 5 I don’t know, that bench is pretty weak defensively. Top 10, probably. If they drafted Wes-Jo and hired Thibodeau I’d probably project them in the 35-40 win range, whatever seed that makes them.
People who think a coach and the 6th pick is going to magically turn us into the team we were two years ago — and then some — underestimate the loss of Andre, Reggie, Theo, Donyell, IMO. The only two guys I think make us significantly better next year are Wall and Turner, regardless of coach.
Plus, we have no idea where the power’s going to be next year. What if the Nets draft Wall, sign LeBron and Bosh? Or the Knicks get Wade and Gay? There’s too many unknowns to project what seed teams will be.
The key to this off-season is direction. I want a coach who will be around a while, and a player who will be part of the core. Immediate improvement is secondary. I’d be fine if we drafted Wes-Jo, hired Thibodeau, won 35 games, got another top 10 pick, and continued to improve the roster.
You are right about the bench being defensively weak, however I believe that a proper rotation could mask that, especially with a better coach.
As an example, Speights should always be on the floor with either Brand or Speights unless it is the last shot of the quarter or half type scenario. He should be treated similar to how Amare is handled now under Gentry. He plays with defensive centers a lot, players who can mask his issues on that end.
Lou should always play against 2nd unit types, same w/Meeks. Thad could be better under a coach like Thibs, so could Meeks and possibly Speights.
My honest opinion is that this team, even this year, was a 40-win talent. So, imo, add even more talent and better coaching(especially defensive), that team should be 10-15 wins better “overnight,” with very little other changes
Yeah, I agree with the rotations, but you can only mask so much. Top 5 is pushing it IMO.
So, your original question stems back to how well you think the team would’ve played with a different coach. Since we have different views (and it’s a question we’ll never know an definitive answer to), we’re going to have different opinions on how good they can be next year.
But it sounds like we both think a new coach + top 6 pick is worth around 10 wins.
Keep in mind that it took 50 wins to get 8th seed in the West.
I’m happy if they sneak into the playoffs in the East ONLY if it is due to contributions of the young players. But if they bring in a coach like LB, and trade away the #1 pick for a vet and sneak into the playoffs Charlotte style, I’ll be disappointed.
it could be a real solid defensive rotation. Sams rotations, the lack of a true 2 guard defensively, and brand’s rebounding could all be issues……but there’s enough to work with to be solid. I think drafting most of the top swing men in this draft means iggy should be traded. Most of them project more ideally at sf than sg defensively in the future……with the exception of turner who could be an above average defender at either position. But offensively I think turner and iggy will just be in each others way
I run into that opinion a lot in philly. But I just don’t buy it.
He’s a stud defender at SG in stretches. But he’s a bit of a long strider….you don’t want him trying to chase around guards on the perimeter full time over an 82 game season. Teams will dribble him into screens and force switches more often with him at SG than SF. The team is more consistent both defensively, on the break, and in the half court offense with him at SF as opposed to SG.
Both of the last two seasons the Sixers started off the with him at SG, and both times they had to switch him back to SF, I realize that the team had many other problems than Iggy sometimes having slow feet when chasing around PG’s and SG’s……but I don’t think it was coincidence that they generally perform better with him at SF,
First of all, how do you run into an opinion? Second of all, he’s a top 5 wing defender in the league. Hes at least above average at guarding 3 positions, and aside from lightning quick guards, he can handle anything people throw at him offensively. Whether or not you buy it is something else entirely.
by Michael Levin on May 8, 2010 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
I run into my opinion by watching him play at least a few hundred games by now. It’s probably somewhat well known by now in the league that Iggy can be screened off relatively easily. It’s one of his few weaknesses on defense. And while he defends his man in one on one matchups quite well, he’s not necessarily among the quickest swing men in the league on defensive rotations on the perimeter either. These chinks in his armor become more of a routine problem within the framework of the team defense with him at SG than at SF.
When he’s at SF, that typically means there are two defenders with quicker feet on the perimeter. Not only does this decrease the frequency of his weaknesses being exposed, but it also allows him to conserve some of his energy on the defensive end so that he can give iron man minutes. It also allows him to cheat in the passing lanes a bit more. It’s probably also provides more opportunities for him him to gather the defensive rebound and ignite the break when he’s at SF as opposed to SG.
Now if you are down to one or two possessions, and an elite wing(whether a guard or a SG) on the opposition is going to be given the ball to create offense on his own in crunchtime…….a put the ball on the floor and create his own shot type of player….yeah Iggy is a fine option and either he or Jrue are the two best choices on the team depending on the matchup. But just because Iggy occasionally shines in that role against an opposing SG does not mean he should play that position full time. Depending on the matchups and team needs, Iggy has closed out a lot of games in his career admirably at even PF…..but you wouldn’t give him starter’s minutes there….it’s not as obvious but essentially the same thing with him out at SG. It is not his natural position defensively.
Elite offense typically trumps good defense. If someone like Wade gets hot no single player will cool him down. But Iguodala is about as good (and versatile) of a defender on the perimeter as anyone in the league. I’d put Kobe a notch above, but otherwise I can’t think of anyone better.
General i don’t think of SG vs SF on defense. Either way you have to cover a range of players. And Iguodala draws the toughest cover unless its a PG (and sometimes he covers that.) The team being horrible on defense does not take away from what Iguodala does. In fact, I think this was one of his better easons on defense.
That lineup might have some trouble guarding guys like Rashard Lewis, Andrea Bargnani, and Josh Smith
But it might make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference…it’s just that such a sudden turnaround rarely ever happens.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"Keep your head up and don't let anything get to you." - Dante Bichette Jr.
#3 + #6 + #15 + #1 = QPU #25, and no, it's not because of Anthony Carter
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Liberty Ballers
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Behind the Box Score, where a special Oklahoma City Thunder team is moving on
- Russell Westbrook hit an impossible and-one shot to beat the Lakers (VIDEO)
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Hamed Haddadi goes to the zoo
- David Stern changed the competition committee to push new rules, report says
- Nazr Mohammed films Oklahoma City Thunder fans welcoming the team back at 5:30 in the morning (VIDEO)
