Sixers' Draft 2010: Bust Factor - Guards vs. Non-guards
by Jordan Sams on May 24, 2010 1:52 AM PDT
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PrintThe Sixers have the number two pick, and it seems like a no-brainer to take Evan Turner. However; there's rumors of the Sixers possibly shopping the pick, or at least fielding offers - the thought process being: "we can move down a few spots and still land a can't-miss big man prospect". But just how "can't-miss" are non-guard prospects? I reviewed the top 5 draft picks from 1998-2007 to see what the bust factor was for guard prospects compared to non-guards.
*I couldn't come up with a scientific way to determine which players were busts and which weren't, so I used my own judgement. Feel free to disagree in the comments. Busts are in bold.
1998:
- Michael Olowokandi - non-guard
- Mike Bibby - guard
- Raef LaFrentz - non-guard
- Antawn Jamsion - non-guard
- Vince Carter - non-guard
- Elton Brand - non-guard
- Steve Francis - guard
- Baron Davis - guard
- Lamar Odom - non-guard
- Jonathan Bender - non-guard
- Kenyon Martin - non-guard
- Stromile Swift - non-guard
- Darius Miles - non-guard
- Marcus Fizer - non-guard
- Mike Miller - guard
- Kwame Brown - non-guard
- Tyson Chandler - non-guard
- Pau Gasol - non-guard
- Eddy Curry - non-guard
- Jason Richardson - guard
2002:
- Yao Ming - non-guard
- Jay Williams - guard
- Mike Dunleavy - non-guard
- Drew Gooden - non-guard
- Nickoloz Tskitishvili - non-guard
- LeBron James - non-guard
- Darko Milicic - non-guard
- Carmelo Anthony - non-guard
- Chris Bosh - non-guard
- Dwyane Wade - guard
2004:
- Dwight Howard - non-guard
- Emeka Okafor - non-guard
- Ben Gordon - guard
- Shaun Livingston - guard
- Devin Harris - guard
- Andrew Bogut - non-guard
- Marvin Williams - non-guard
- Deron Williams - guard
- Chris Paul - guard
- Raymond Felton - guard
2006:
- Andrea Bargnani - non-guard
- LaMarcus Aldridge - non-guard
- Adam Morrison - non-guard
- Tyrus Thomas - non-guard
- Shleden Williams - non-guard
- Greg Oden - non-guard
- Kevin Durant - non-guard
- Al Horford - non-guard
- Mike Conley - guard
- Jeff Green - non-guard
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According to my calculations, two of the guards drafted in the top 5 from '98-'07 turned out to be busts (14%). Meanwhile, 17 of the non-guards drafted in the top 5 from '98-'07 turned out to be busts (47%). For whatever reason, guards seem to be safer bets when making a top 5 selection.
What does this mean for the Sixers? Don't be too cute - just take Turner. There's no time to be messing around with Favors (Will he live up to his potential? Is he too laid back?) or Cousins (Will his conditioning be a problem? Does he have an attitude problem? Is his work ethic a problem?). A gamble might be worth the risk outside the top 5, but the Sixers have a golden opportunity sitting at number two, and they should take advantage of it.
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Here's a good question:
There’s been at least one bust in each of these top 5s. If you had to pick one guy in this year’s top 5 to be that guy who would it be? Would have to be Cousins wouldn’t it?
Based on all the factors, yes, Cousins has the most bustability if he’s not in shape or doesn’t have his head in the right place. Also because Wes Johnson is a solid player without too high of a ceiling and Favors is already a good defender. I still think Cousins is gonna be better than you think though Jordan.
by Michael Levin on May 24, 2010 5:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I think there’s a slight chance Favors ends up as a bust, just because of expectations. If he “only” ends up Al Horford, people are going to be pissed. He’s pegged as a future 20 ppg scorer, and I see that latent talent, a lot still has to go right for him to reach that.
I think Wall and Turner have very low “bustability”. I think Johnson does, too, but that’s because I think there’s virtually no chance he’s not a 15-18 ppg scorer, and people aren’t expecting much more than that.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 24, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Turner has a decent chance not to wind up more valuable (what salary he should command) than Horford at at a similar age/stage of his career – I wouldn’t have counted that as a bust. Turner has a good chance to be better also, but I definitely see a probability distribution for his outcome and not a narrow range.
Favors seems like the second coming of Marvin Williams
Athletic freak who didn’t quite live up to his potential in one year of college before coming to the NBA.
Favors FG% was over 60% at Georgia Tech, he wasn’t the designated #1 low post guy in their offense, and their guards were considered substandard for the ACC. It’s fine to say that his Freshmen stats were less than you would expect from the #1 overall prospect, but way premature to say he isn’t going to fulfill his potential based on that one situation.
It’s a good argument. I’d summarize like this:
1) NBA teams mostly won’t select a guard in the top 5 unless they are very confident he won’t be a bust (even a mini-guard-bust like Bibby is still a productive player).
2) NBA teams don’t have a generally good way of predicting which big men which be busts. The bigger they are, the harder to predict.
3) It would be taking a risk to not select Wall or Turner so the Sixers would have to demand a corresponding level of compensation to take that risk.
What the hell man
You list Tyrus Thomas and Marvin Williams as busts but fail to include Emeka Okafor ?
Two of the 3 guard busts were due to major injuries… Livingston and Williams.
Only Conley has busted on his own with injury as an excuse.
I wouldn't call Conley a bust, either
I think he’s on a path to become a nice starting PG for years to come.
I think it might be valuable to consider how many quality big men were drafted after the top 5 picks. It’s important to realize that while lots of teams make mistakes selecting big men, others in the same draft turn out to be decent players. Sure some Centers appear to be obvious no-brainers and turn out to be busts, so much so that a team selected Sam Bowie over Micheal Jordan.
With forwards and guards it’s easier to see if they have the necessary skills. With big men, size is not a substitute for talent, they need some coordination and something between the ears to be able to compete. Of course, they also need the size and the ability to use it.
The thing to remember is that the Sixers have done a good job in selecting players and are already ranking players as to how they think they should go. They also can decide if any of the big men available are ones that could really help the team- that is, not be busts. IF they can get rid of Brand by coupling it with the draft pick, drop a few spots and still get the big man they targeted, that would be ideal.
What they should not do is fall in love with a player simply because he’s big. Unless you think he can contribute this season, you should take the smaller player- but because the Sixers already have players at this position, you have to realize you’re forcing the team into a trade situation, and the Sixers will have to sacrifice talent because other teams know they have to make a deal.
In either case, we need other teams, to get rid of Brand or to take one of our small forwards.
As long as they score 25 pointe a quarter… :)
"They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they'd make up their minds." - Wilt Chamberlain
by soman319 on May 24, 2010 9:28 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't understand why Tyson Chandler is a bust, but Drew Gooden isn't
I’d rather have a few seasons of borderline All-star performance than a career of mediocrity.
when was Gooden anywhere near an all-star?
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 24, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Bust Percentages
I have Felton as a bust, I don’t think LaFrentz was a bust, and separated out by Internationals, High Schoolers, College Big Men, College Wings, College Guards and came up with the following
Internationals: 2 Busts out of 5. Bust Percentage: 40%
High Schoolers: 6 Busts out of 7. Bust Percentage 85%
College Big Men: 6 Busts out of 16. Bust Percentage 38%
College Wings: 3 Busts out of 10. Bust Percentage 30%
College Guards: 2 Busts out of 11. Bust Percentage 18%
Good thing they can’t draft High Schoolers any more.
I effed up
Put Lebron as a College Wing
Should be
High Schoolers: 6 Busts out 8. Bust Percentage 75%
College Wings: 3 Busts out of 9. Bust Percentage 33%
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