The Sixers have the number two pick, and it seems like a no-brainer to take Evan Turner. However; there's rumors of the Sixers possibly shopping the pick, or at least fielding offers - the thought process being: "we can move down a few spots and still land a can't-miss big man prospect". But just how "can't-miss" are non-guard prospects? I reviewed the top 5 draft picks from 1998-2007 to see what the bust factor was for guard prospects compared to non-guards.
*I couldn't come up with a scientific way to determine which players were busts and which weren't, so I used my own judgement. Feel free to disagree in the comments. Busts are in bold.
1998:
-
Michael Olowokandi - non-guard
- Mike Bibby - guard
-
Raef LaFrentz - non-guard
- Antawn Jamsion - non-guard
- Vince Carter - non-guard
- Elton Brand - non-guard
- Steve Francis - guard
- Baron Davis - guard
- Lamar Odom - non-guard
- Jonathan Bender - non-guard
- Kenyon Martin - non-guard
- Stromile Swift - non-guard
- Darius Miles - non-guard
- Marcus Fizer - non-guard
- Mike Miller - guard
- Kwame Brown - non-guard
- Tyson Chandler - non-guard
- Pau Gasol - non-guard
- Eddy Curry - non-guard
- Jason Richardson - guard
2002:
- Yao Ming - non-guard
- Jay Williams - guard
- Mike Dunleavy - non-guard
- Drew Gooden - non-guard
-
Nickoloz Tskitishvili - non-guard
- LeBron James - non-guard
- Darko Milicic - non-guard
- Carmelo Anthony - non-guard
- Chris Bosh - non-guard
- Dwyane Wade - guard
2004:
- Dwight Howard - non-guard
- Emeka Okafor - non-guard
- Ben Gordon - guard
- Shaun Livingston - guard
- Devin Harris - guard
- Andrew Bogut - non-guard
- Marvin Williams - non-guard
- Deron Williams - guard
- Chris Paul - guard
- Raymond Felton - guard
2006:
- Andrea Bargnani - non-guard
- LaMarcus Aldridge - non-guard
- Adam Morrison - non-guard
- Tyrus Thomas - non-guard
- Shleden Williams - non-guard
- Greg Oden - non-guard
- Kevin Durant - non-guard
- Al Horford - non-guard
- Mike Conley - guard
- Jeff Green - non-guard
-------------------------
According to my calculations, two of the guards drafted in the top 5 from '98-'07 turned out to be busts (14%). Meanwhile, 17 of the non-guards drafted in the top 5 from '98-'07 turned out to be busts (47%). For whatever reason, guards seem to be safer bets when making a top 5 selection.
What does this mean for the Sixers? Don't be too cute - just take Turner. There's no time to be messing around with Favors (Will he live up to his potential? Is he too laid back?) or Cousins (Will his conditioning be a problem? Does he have an attitude problem? Is his work ethic a problem?). A gamble might be worth the risk outside the top 5, but the Sixers have a golden opportunity sitting at number two, and they should take advantage of it.
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