Sixers' Draft Profiles: Cole Aldrich
by Jordan Sams on May 11, 2010 12:00 AM PDT
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Print#1 - John Wall
#2 - Evan Turner
#3 - Derrick Favors
#4 - DeMarcus Cousins
#5 - Wesley Johnson
#6 - Al-Farouq Aminu
#7 - Ed Davis
#8 - Cole Aldrich
#9 - Greg Monroe
#10 - Daniel Orton
#11 - Ekpe Udoh
#12 - Hassan Whiteside
#13 - Donatas Motiejunas
#14 - Patrick Patterson
A Cole Aldrich breakdown after the jump ...
Scouting Reports
Aldrich's numbers regressed in nearly every category.
From a statistical standpoint, it's somewhat troubling to see the lack of progress Aldrich has made this past season. His numbers are down across the board, even when adjusting for the fact that he's playing 3 minutes less per game. Aldrich is scoring significantly less (16.3 per-40 pace adjusted compared to 19.9 last season), grabbing fewer rebounds, is substantially less efficient (converting 55% of his 2-pointers compared with 60% last season) and has seen his free throw percentage take a dramatic hit (from 79% to 68%).
What's Cole's upside?
The prevailing opinion amongst NBA scouts has always been that Aldrich is a likely role-player at the next level-a player who projects as a significant presence in the paint defensively and on the glass, but can't be expected to score much more than what his guards are able to create for him around the basket.
He has very little skills on offense.
Aldrich is the type of player who is best suited for having shots created for him, something that has happened with far less regularity this season according to the data we have at our disposal. He struggles to do much of anything if unable to establish position deep inside the paint, looking fairly mechanical with his movements at times and downright uncomfortable in others. He has a basic spin-move, a raw drop-step and a simple jump-hook in his arsenal, but lacks fluidity in his offensive game, is limited with his left hand and tends to just throw the ball up on the rim at times, hoping for the best.
Terrible form on his jumpshot.
Aldrich has always sported very unorthodox shooting mechanics, as the violent slingshot motion he shows, cocking ball way behind his back, was never going to be the optimal to get his shot off. While this didn't affect his effectiveness as a jump-shooter last year, it's really been a factor this year. His shooting woes have translated to the free throw line as well, where he's shooting 11% worse (from 79% to 68%) than he did last season. While no one will be drafting Aldrich for his jump-shooting ability, the fact that he could make defenses work a bit more by forcing them to respect his mid-range jumper was an added bonus that he can no longer claim as a part of his repertoire.
His game is strictly defense and rebounding, and he's pretty good at both.
His size and length allows him to go well out of his area at times for offensive rebounds, and he does a fine job boxing out on the defensive glass as well, something that should translate very effectively to the NBA.
... Aldrich has terrific lower body strength which renders him extremely difficult to back down in the post.
He uses his outstanding wingspan very effectively to contest shots in the paint, being very fundamentally sound in the way he gets his long arms right in his defender's face to deny good looks at the basket.
... a much better pick and roll defender than you might expect relative to most centers in his mold, as he does a tremendous job of stepping out, hedging screens and then recovering effectively, showing nice timing, solid effort and good fundamentals in the process.
He's the type of shot-blocker who stays out of foul trouble, rarely goal-tends and usually keeps balls in-bounds on top of that, often showing the wherewithal to tip it to a teammate and ignite the fast break ...
Ford had the Sixers taking Aldrich with the 6th pick in his first mock draft.
Aldrich might never be a star, but he's a solid big man who rebounds, blocks shots, and scores from inside and out. With only one more season left on Samuel Dalembert's contract, Aldrich would provide some great insurance.
Bad news, if the Sixers draft him:
Aldrich is a system guy. He's not going to excel if the game really starts getting up and down.
I've seen some form of this statement about a million times, on why Aldrich will go in top 10.
Aldrich plays the most coveted position in the draft, so he already has a huge leg up on every other prospect in the draft.
With so few big men challenging Aldrich's position as a mid-lottery pick, he seems like a lock at this point.
His lack of explosive athleticism puts a bit of a ceiling on how high he can go, but given the dearth of centers out there right now, scouts believe he might be able to crack the top five.
With so few big men in the draft, a few NBA executives I spoke with this week had Aldrich ranked as a Top 10 pick.
The argument doesn't fall in line with my philosophy of drafting the best player available, regardless of position.
Cole Aldrich on Twitter
Comparisons
DX: Best case - Rich man's Joel Pryzbilla
Worst case - Josh Boone
ESPN: Joel Przybilla with more offense
NBADraft.net - Joel Przybilla/Eric Montross
YouTube
My take:
I have nothing against Cole. I think he'll be a good NBA player, especially because large centers who rebound and play defense are so hard to come by these days. But given the Sixers situation (a struggling franchise with a ton of holes and no star power) I think selecting Aldrich with a pick in the 6-8 range is a waste. The Sixers need star potential, high-upside, and the best prospect available. Not a solid player with no star-power, little upside, who projects to be nothing more than a role player.
Up next: Greg Monroe
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I don’t hate “playing it safe”. The only thing worse than not getting a superstar with the #6/#7 pick would be not getting a starter with the #6/#7 pick. You WILL get a starter selecting Cole Aldrich.
Really, I don’t get the hate for him. He’s just become the poster boy for the “unsexy” pick. As tk76 pointed out a while back, there’s a reason teams in the 8-10 range tend to have a high failure rate. The potential trap. Outside of the top 6, I’m not sure I see any potential superstars left. If Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins, Johnson and Aminu are off the board, I then re-evaluate my draft strategy. If I can get a starting big who should be an impact defender and rebounder, and who has the basketball intelligence to quarterback a defense, who’s a great communicator, and who isn’t going to turn the ball over or take a bad shot every time he gets an offensive rebound, that’s not the worst thing in the world. I’d much rather fall into the “taking the safe pick” approach than I would “taking a potential defensive liability” approach like drafting Greg Monroe, for example.
That being said, Cole Aldrich is a worst case scenario. I had a lot more interest in him at 8-10. We’d have to get leapfrogged AND the draft would have to go according to plan for me to have interest in him. At 6, he shouldn’t be on our radar. But we’re not guaranteed 6 yet.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
Aldrich is the perfect pick for the Sixers. They can team him up with the right coach, like, say, Vinny DelNegro, and the Sixers will be on the right path, finally. The path that gets you the most ping pong balls so you can draft someone who will actually do you some good. And maybe DelNegro can get into a fistfight with Stefanski or something, so there’s a reason to show up to the games.
Seriously, even if they somehow get Wall, does anyone really believe this team is only a player or two away? Unless those players are LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, not at all. There needs to be a total purge of the roster and a massive infusion of talent. Until then, they should be concentrating on nothing but clearing bad contracts and maximizing the draft.
This is a very bad team. Very bad teams don’t get better by picking the next Joel Przybilla. Very bad teams get better by cleaning house, of bad contracts, of players who don’t give a crap about winning, of moronic coaches who give three-hour chalk-talks (check!), of clueless GMs who hire said moronic coaches, of senile owners who care more about their hockey team than about putting even a tolerable product on the floor.
If Aldrich is seriously the best option available when they draft, they should trade the pick. And I’ve seen all the rants about “you never trade a top 10 pick unless there’s someone you think is going to be amazing and no one else knows about”. But Aldrich isn’t a top 10 pick in a normal draft. He’s a guy. And he’s tall. And that’s what he brings to the table. He’s a 15-18 pick any other year, a solid 8th guy for a good team needing big man depth. Six fouls to use on Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum. A nice defensive anchor for your second team, gives you 18 minutes of defense and rebounding while Yao is getting a breather, whatever.
They have the good fortune to have the 6th pick in a 4 or 5 player draft (depending on how you feel about Wes Johnson). But Aldrich is the uitimate Sharone Wright moment waiting to happen. I would rather have Hassan Whiteside, because at least there’s a chance something really good could happen with him, even with his high bustability percentage.
Drafting Aldrich is the ultimate ostrich move…total denial that drastic moves need to happen here for this team to return to any sort of respectability.
I think Aldrich is better than you do but hey, nice post man I can feel the fire burning in your crotch and I dig it.
by Michael Levin on May 11, 2010 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t get drafting Aldrich this high. So often, True centers who played well in college go too high, and I wonder if this is the case here again. He probably is a starter in this league, but I’m not sold that he is a 30 + min/night player on a contender.
If pick number 8 is all about taking a safe pick on a player likely to start, then Xavier Henry should not be ranked lower than Cole. Henry at least has a little upside to go along with the safety.
Say he turns out to be as good as Kendrick Perkins- who was picked #27. Would that warrant a top 10 pick? Nick Collison- who is a good comparison, was picked #12 that year. Aldrich probably has about that level value (#12) IMO.
Say he turns out to be as good as Kendrick Perkins- who was picked #27. Would that warrant a top 10 pick?
At what point does a players draft position become irrelevant? Do I think Kendrick Perkins the player is worth a lottery pick? Sure. That’s irrespective of where he was drafted 7 years ago. Just like I no longer consider Mike Sweetney more valuable than Perkins just because of his draft status.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 11, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m trying to bring up 2 separate points.
#1: Best case I see Aldrich as being a sol;id defensive center of similar quality to perkins. I think he lacks the size of explosiveness to be better than Perkins (although their games won’t be identical. Perkins is more about strength, Aldrich length.) So if that is what you project Aldrich as, then what pick is that worth?
#2: Players who project to be one dimensional and not physically dominant often slide. Not always all the way to #27. But often at least to #12 (where Collison was drafted that year.) So picking Aldrich in the top ten means either you are reaching for need or it is a weak draft in the top 10.
They’re not really two separate points. #2 directly addresses why #1 happens :)
I’m not sure I’d call Aldrich one-dimensional. Unless offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, team defense, post defense, and igniting the break are now one dimension. I would call him limited offensively, which I do think is more than one-dimensional.
As for “this and this quality making him a top 10 pick only in a weak draft”, I’m not going to argue that “tools” and “upside” often cause players to get overvalued. I think there are a lot of mistakes in teams overall drafting strategy. The fact that there are mistakes doesn’t change my opinion of whether Aldrich is worth a top 10 pick or not. I’m going based on value.
And yes, I do think this draft is weak in the top 10. The depth of this draft is getting a contributor at 20-25, not getting an all-star at 10, IMO.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 11, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
That makes May 18th all the more important.
I’m not exactly sold on the top 5 either (in terms of chances to be All NBA type players) but after those guys I’m doubtfull the Sixers get more than a solid role player (starter or bench.) Aldrich fits that mold, and he might not be a bad pick considering what is available at #7. But that makes me no less depressed by the proposition given where I see this team headed.
I’m scared with ES still around that this team is not even in light at the end of the tunnel mode. Sort of like if you feel the stock market still needs a major correction, and instead it is headed for a brief upwards run. It is just putting off the inevitable.
I’ve been praying they either get lucky in the lottery or trade into the top 4 for a while now.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 11, 2010 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s sort of strange, but I’d feel better about drafting a solid role player if I knew the team was going to be lousy next year (say the traded away Iguodala and Sam.) or if there was some chance of them trading for or signing a superstar in the next 2 years. Nothing wrong with adding solid pieces if you have some other plan for getting your centerpiece.
But I’m really troubled by the notion that this team thinks they can reshuffles some pieces and go up from there. because at some point this team needs better stars to compete. And I’m not sure how they would find them if they win 30+ games the next few seasons.
What does the team have to give up to trade into the top four?
And seeing as I’m clueless when it come to cap-a-nomics, and trading in the draft. If we were to give up say Sammy D and the number six pick to trade up to number four, do we have to take back contracts that match Sammy D’s, or can we simply trade any player the opposing team wants plus our pick to move up?
I respect your opinions, Derek, and you’re clearly more knowledgeable and have put in a lot more analysis than I about many areas of player evaluation. However, the point I wanted to make way back at the beginning of this is not that I don’t believe Aldrich can contribute in the right situation…
“a solid 8th guy for a good team needing big man depth. Six fouls to use on Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum. A nice defensive anchor for your second team, gives you 18 minutes of defense and rebounding while Yao is getting a breather, whatever.”
That is the very definition of a contributor, as I see it. That is a rotation player who gets solid, consistent minutes every night performing a valuable role on a good team.
My point was…
“This is a very bad team. Very bad teams don’t get better by picking the next Joel Przybilla. "
Plus, a bunch of me venting, because I can’t stand the idea of not getting a potentially serious impact player after the crotch-punch this season was. :)
Also, I don’t see him being nearly as productive, even at the areas in which he is strong (rebounding and post D, primarily) at the next level as he was in college. His lack of athleticism will, in my opinion, be badly exposed. But you clearly feel differently, and I expect you’ve put in a lot more time and brain cells on this than I have, so I will defer to your expertise.
But even given that he is everything you believe him to be (sorry, I’m an attorney, I play this game a lot), I don’t think he is what the team needs. He would fit in wonderfully on a Houston or Portland. This team needs to swing for the fences.
I said I wouldn’t be interested in him at #6/#7, so I’m not sure what exactly we’re arguing. I just think Aldrich is going to be a better pro than he’s generally given credit for, and I don’t think walking away with him would be the apocalyptic scenario some paint it as.
I’m also not as high on the prospects in the #8-10 range as some are, which affects my willingness to draft Aldrich #8-#10.
I also place extreme value on the attributes Aldrich does bring.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on May 12, 2010 3:32 AM PDT up reply actions
The reason people hate Aldrich is the same reason people seem to underrate Iguodala. Aldrich is very good at what he does. He has the size and length to be an extremely effective player on defense and on the boards and he has the basketball IQ necessary to use his tools to his advantage. The “problem” is that he’s not very good at the one thing that everybody thinks is what a player needs to be a good player: scoring.
I wouldn’t be pleased with the Sixers drafting Aldrich but I wouldn’t throw a hissy fit like I expect many other posters to do if it happens. He is NOT Sharone Wright or Nick Collison.
The good news for the Aldrich haters is that he does not fit into the Sixers’ usual draft strategy. DiLeo always seems to draft young, high upside players over ones with proven college track record. I’d actually be very surprised if the Sixers took Aldrich unless they traded down and he somehow fell to them.
I think some fans will be angry because the believe he will be a bust.
But others of us are more frustrated by the overall direction of the team- and see a low upside guy like Aldrich as part of a general approach to steer us back to mediocrity. In some ways Aldrich as a player is similar to the Sixers as a team. Used correctly he can be solid, but no shot at stardom or much excitement. In the same way this team can be patched back to Bobcat level success, but lacks the talent to get much farther..
But admittedly there may not be a much better choice if the Sixers pick #7- which is depressing.
The tiers in this draft seem unusually unbalanced.
Tier 1
Wall
Tier 2
Turner, Favors, Cousins
Tier 3
Wes
Tier 4
Aminu, Davis, Aldrich, etc.
by Jordan Sams on May 11, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
One stupid organization
The Sixer’s are the worst professional sports team in Philadelphia. They should be the hottest team in the NBA Instead they are the worst. I thought when we traded Iverson a few years ago to Denver that we was going to be a lottery team. We should have tanked every game and went after Kevin Durant. That year we had 2 first round draft picks, but nothing to show for it today. All we needed to do was get a good coach and went after a good free agent and not some dam Elton Brand. The guy never played for a winning team in his whole career, but what stupid franchise gets him and pay him all this money. Who else the Sixer’s.
My question is this:
Let’s say the Sixers get a top-2 pick. Is there any player or combination of players on the roster(excluding Jrue/Dala) that can get you another later pick to draft an Aldrich? Or is it better to try and target an Orton or Alabi?
I like Aldrich, I really do. As Derek has said, he is a very valuable complementary piece. As TK76 has said, I’d feel better about picking him now if I didn’t think they were still in “Win-Now Save Stef’s Job” Mode.
IMO, Aldrich is the type of guy you would need to succeed in a conference featuring a Dwight Howard. If he fills out even more, he potentially lets you more easily play that DiLeo strategy of making D12 beat you while locking up on the outside.
That said, the team needs a home run. They really need to come away with a WTFCJ, a potential star pillar, not a complement
I’d rather just buy a pick in the 20’s. I’m not sure I’d give up any players for Aldrich, Alabi, Orton.
by Jordan Sams on May 11, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I’d think it is more realistic to try and acquire a non-lottery #1 and pick a project like Alabi or Orton. Aldrich is much more valuable- and so will be the asking price in a trade.
I guess if Aldrich slips ti late lottery we could consider trading away Speights or Thad for him. Do you think that is wise?
That I am not sure about. I am not quite ready to give up on Thad & Speights. If Speights becomes at least a mediocre defender while becoming more consistent on the D-Board, he could be a major contributor to a good team going forward, especially if his front court running mate can erase any of his mistakes.
Would I give up Lou & one of our perimeter expirings(Green or Kapono) for a mid-teens pick and take a big? I would. Would I consider moving Sam with Lou if I know I am getting Aldrich(especially if I already have Wall, Turner or Wes?). Probably.
Part of the reason I don’t rate Aldrich highly is that I don’t consider his defensive abilities to translate as well to the NBA as it seems almost everyone assumes. Sure, he should be a solid defender, and maybe a good one. But does he have the vertical or quickness to provide truly elite interior defense? At first glance, it doesn’t look like it to me.
I feel like in order to draft someone in the top 10, you have to feel like they have some sort of upside, otherwise what is the point? If the goal is to just grab a solid contributor, then there are salary cap exceptions for that. Even the ancient version of Theo Ratliff that helped us the prior season off the bench is likely a better overall NBA defender than Cole. The younger version of Ratliff was far superior of a defender than Cole will ever be.
now you can’t say something like that without providing a video of it
by Tanner Steidel on May 11, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah unfortunately youtube is blocked at work, but for some reason libertyballers.com is perfectly ok.
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