OperationWTF - Day 7: Trade down?
by Jordan Sams on Apr 26, 2010 8:46 AM PDT
17 comments
24 days till the lottery ...
Here's the scenario ESPN's Draft Lottery simulator spit out at me today:
7th pick and Acid Aminu AGAIN! 5 out of 7 times the Sixers have gotten Aminu. Here's a thought: say the Sixers pick 6th or 7th and WTF, Cousins, and Johnson are gone -- which they probably will be -- would you be interested in moving down 3 or 4 spots and picking up a future first-rounder? I'd strongly consider it. Say they pick 7, and the best available are Davis, Aldrich, Monroe, Whiteside and Udoh. I don't see much of a difference in those 5 guys (except Monroe, I hate Monroe), so why not trade down to 11, pick Udoh, and end up with 2 first-rounders next year?
Another potential scenario: Would you package the number 7 pick and Elton Brand for an expiring contract, and maybe a late-first, early-second round pick? It'd be intriguing as heck, but I don't think I'd do it. I'd rather just wait Elton's contract out.
According to DX's rankings, these are the guys who'd be available to the Sixers at 7: Davis, Johnson, Udoh, and Patterson. Wesley Johnson, no-brainer.
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Simulation #1: 6th pick, Aminu
Simulation #2: 7th pick, Aminu
Simulation #3: 3rd pick, Cousins
Simulation #4: 6th pick, Aminu
Simulation #5: 7th pick, Aminu
Simulation #6: 2nd pick, Turner
Simulation #7: 7th pick, Aminu
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I’d be surprised (but not shocked) to see Davis come off the board before Aminu.
I would consider trading down a few spots- but I doubt its gets you much in return.
I would not trade away Brand for an expiring contract. The team will not contend over the next 3 years either way- so why give up a valuable building block (#1 pick) and further set back rebuilding. But maybe the additional cap space could be turned into young talent (being able to afford to buy late #1’s or take on players + picks from teams up against the tax.)
But top 10 picks are really important in building a franchise. They should not trade them away when they have so many needs. Sounds like something Larry Brown would consider doing as part of a quick fix (trade #1 for a solid vet.)
http://www.phillyarena.com - Philly sports forum/blog
Wow. This would be the worst case scenario to me. I figure we at least get Ed Davis (who I like more than anyone else in that group you mentioned) if we pick 7th. Aminu is the only one of the top 7 who I don’t really want for this Sixers team. I would totally be up for trading down and picking Whiteside or Xavier Henry.
I would be against trading the pick to get rid of Brand. I still contend that the best way to turn around this team is to stockpile young talent. Perhaps by the time Brand’s contract gets shorter the team will have enough ammunition to package his expiring contract and some young excess for a big name player. If you’re going to be stuck with a bad contract you might as well keep it for long enough for it to actually become an asset.
Also, I guess ESPN is slow to the Jan Vesely news. Then again the mock + lottery had us behind the Pistons for a few days after the tiebreaker was decided.
Trading down for what exactly? You just get worse as you get lower…
And uness you’re getting rid of brand what’s the point?
by jemagee on Apr 26, 2010 10:48 AM PDT reply actions
If we’re at 7 and WTF, Cousins, Johnson, and Aminu are gone (and they don’t love Monroe or Donatas for whatever reason — I’m a fan), I’d absolutely trade down if we can pick up a first for next year, then get a guy with tons of upside but a lot of bustability around 15-20 like Daniel Orton, Paul George, Avery Bradley. I think the likelihood of a team picking up the Brand contract now just to move up 10-15 picks is very very slim.
I’m not sure I think Bradley has either a ton of upside or a ton of bustability.
Derek Bodner
by Derek Bodner on Apr 26, 2010 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions
I think because of how good his defense could be, if his offensive skill catches up to his athleticism, he could be special. At the same time, if he shoots 36% and can’t run an offense, and he gambles too much on D, I’d say there’s bustable potential. Boy thats a mouthful
by Michael Levin on Apr 26, 2010 8:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I think his jumper and his D are what makes his bustability low.
Derek Bodner
by Derek Bodner on Apr 26, 2010 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I’d agree. But do you know what I meant before about taking a gamble and picking up another first instead of settling for mediocrity at 7? Or agree with it?
by Michael Levin on Apr 26, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t hat anyone, I find that to be rude.
But no, I actually like him around 10-15 but 7 is a reach and if we can get value by dropping down in the 1st, I’d be supportive.
by Michael Levin on Apr 26, 2010 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I must say I’m not a fan of Aminu. More to the point, I’m not a fan of drafting another small forward or combo forward. If we’re going to pick at #6 or #7, I’d much much rather take a chance on Whiteside and look to develop him as a replacement for Sammy D. Even if we do resign Dalembert (I hope so) for 3 or 4 more years, it allows the team and Whiteside time develop, without losing a defensive presence inside.
And while I’m talking about Dalembert. Did the Sixers ever play Sammy and Marrese Speights on the floor at the same time for extended minutes? How did it work?
I am definately in favour of trading down to the 12 to 17 range if the team targets, and lands Xavier Henry. However a team has to be pretty high on a player available at our pick, and I don’t see many teams willing to give up a 2010 mid first round draft pick and a future first round pick for any of the players available here except for possibly Aminu or Monroe.
I think Aminu is much more than another Thaddeus Young. He plays D and rebounds. I think you take the BPA at this point, and figure everything out later. I do like me some Hassan Whiteside though.
Looks like Speights/Dalembert played about 40 minutes together, and their longest stint was 6 minutes, so it’s hard to tell how they’d perform together.
In that 6 minute span the Sixers had a 108 offensive rating and 46 defensive rating. In other words, if that held true for 82 games, the Sixers would go 82-0.
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