Sixers Draft '10: 15%, 4% or somewhere in between?
Despite a magical run, any chance the Sixers had at a top 6 spot is now gone. They currently sit 2.5 games behind both the Kings and Pistons, with 7 games remaining. Even if the Sixers lose out (which they won't) they'd still need the Kings and Pistons to go 3-3 and 3-5 respectively, which isn't going to happen. With the Kings, Pistons, Wizards and company in the rear-view mirror, it's time to take a look at the teams in front of the Sixers: the Pacers, Knicks and Clippers.
| Lottery | Team | Record | GB |
| 10 | Pacers | 28-47 | 2 |
| 9 | Clippers | 27-48 | 1 |
| 8 | Knicks | 26-48 | 0.5 |
| 7 | Sixers | 26-49 | -- |
Two games is all that separates the Sixers from a 15% chance, and a 4% chance to land WTF. It's all probabilities and luck, but obviously you want to give yourself the best chance to land a franchise-changing player. So, two or three more meaningless wins for the Sixers and we could be looking at a 4% chance of landing WTF. Really? A four percent chance, after all that? If you want to look at it from the standpoint of winning the lottery, we'd go from a 4% chance to a 1% chance.
It's sad to think that two meaningless April wins could be the difference between WTF and Cole Alrdich. If you think I'm overplaying the two wins thing, check this out: If the Sixers lost both games they were supposed to (Hawks and Bucks) they'd currently be 1.5 games back of the four-spot and 2.5 back of the third.
You get the picture. These next 7 games are unbelievably crucial if the Sixers want to salvage anything from this terrible season, and the muck of mediocrity. With that said, here are the remaining schedules of the four teams.
Pacers: Heat, Rockets, Knicks (thank you!), @Cavs, Nets, Magic, @Wizards
Predicted remaining record: 3-4
Predicted final record: 31-51
Clippers: @Nuggets, Knicks (thank you!), Blazers, @Kings, Warriors, Mavericks, Lakers
Predicted remaining record: 1-6
Predicted final record: 28-54
Knicks: @Warriors, @Clippers, Celtics, @Pacers, @Magic, Heat, Wizards, @Raptors
Predicted remaining record: 2-6
Predicted final record: 28-54
Sixers: Raptors, Pistons, @Heat, Bucks, @Grizzles, Heat, @Magic
Predicted remaining record: 4-3
Predicted final record: 30-52
Predicted Final Lottery Standings
| Lottery | Team | Record | GB |
| 10 | Pacers | 31-51 | 3 |
| 9 | Sixers | 30-52 | 2 |
| 8 | Clippers | 28-54 | -- |
| 7 | Knicks | 28-54 | -- |
Sixers predicted chance of winning lottery: 1.7%
Sixers predicted chance of getting WTF: 6%
Predicted player drafted: Cole Aldrich
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If that doesn't get you excited for the rest of the season, the lottery, and the draft I don't know what will! I hope my predictions are wrong, but come on, you know I'm right. Drop your predictions in the comments.
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BTW
The difference between the 7 and 10 picks on DX’s mock draft is Ed Davis and Patrick Patterson. That’s a monster difference in my eyes.
DX has johnson 8 and davis 7 – i’m not fully trusting their mock just yet
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
if we pick Aldrich
I officially give up. not only with the sixers, but life in general. that pick would make positively no sense and picking anything besides a player with the highest upside would be ludicrous.
this rant is contingent on us staying in the 6-9 pick range.
Hassan Whiteside should be the choice…if he comes out…which he will even after that article saying he still doesnt know. i would trade Speights instantly. the “red flags” that are often mentioned about whiteside are similar, both in number and sometimes description, to Speights. immature, no dimes. speights, better shooter (…probably. after watching some hassan, he has some touch), but nothing else. Hassan has been compared to marcus camby, which i think is pretty accurate. but id a sprinkle a bit of Bynum in there, especially with the length on offense and defense.
the only other pick id consider is Zahveeay. but where the christ is he gona play with all our 1s, 2s, and 3s o my? yes i referenced Wizard of Oz, thats how ungood our team is. but i think wed have to trade someone…lou, iggy, thad…someone would have to go and there are teams that would take these players, especially if paired with dalemberts expiring.
i think picking Whiteside is the best route and surely will be the most exciting. i feel like it will mirror picking Jrue in that people will criticize claiming other “established” players being the better way to go, then Hassan will start showing some potential and have those same people suddenly not waxing douchetic.
the point is that anything mediocre, like aldrichs potential, will just add to the morass that is the sixer well-being. dull, dark, and emotionally taxing can no longer be tolerated. jrue is already good and obviously has potential, meaning a cause for excitement about watching him play and in a few years possibly running a good team. whiteside, if given the opportunity, can become just as intriguing if not moreso. so when Jrue is entering his 4th year and whiteside would be entering his 3rd, we have a nice little stew going. thats the last year of all other contracts so we could start anew, hopefully with the sixers not presupposing that they HAVE to resign thaddeus to big money..or even decent money. let him go. after the draft picks of those couple years in between and the teams mediocrity, i think we can absorb that non-blow of him leaving even tho i am a fan of his.
so i write a lot and rant all the time. but i just want to see a good/great team, and that wont happen for a while. the only way it will happen is not falling into the trap of collegiate prospect misinterpretation, picking astutely/gettick lucky, and getting rid of the deadwood in the organization. we are a big market believe it or not and who knows what could happen at the end of irrelavent iguodala/brand era.
so drafting whiteside is a clear gamble. but its high risk high reward. its also pragmatic. its not giving up. its being realisitic about the current team’s construction and also building for the future. even if he doesnt pan out, it is the better bet than drafting an aldrich or a damion james. i know ive mentioned this several times already, but also think about what motivates u to watch sixers games. right now, i think its safe to say that its mainly Jrue. who would like to see added to that mix, some other person or Whiteside? hes just the best investment and i think, will show some skills from the jump.
this is not an anti-aldrich post, its anti-delusion. aldrich would fit nicely on a team like the thunder, where he fills a role. on our team, he would fill the role of Bleh or blah or ehhh.
I can clearly see Whiteside being a guy who, in 5 years, you go “god, had we actually gotten some value out of the tremendous asset we had back with that pick, we might not be in the position we are today”. I have a whole lot of concerns about whiteside, most of which can be corrected if his work ethic and ability to accept his role are high, both of which appear to be negatives.
That’s also why whiteside is NOTHING like Holiday as a prospect. There was a reasonable degree of certainty that Holiday can/will reach his potential because of his work ethic and basketball IQ. I don’t feel nearly as confident in Whiteside reaching his potential.
That being said, I’ve seen about 5 of games in full, and I’ll probably watch another 15 by the time June gets here. I’ll have the chance to interview him myself personally. I have a heckuva lot of intrigue in Whiteside, I’m just not ready to take the gamble on him right now.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
But in theory, with the way this team is currently assembled, I have Whiteside considerably higher than Aldrich. With this team, potential should win out on draft night.
by Michael Levin on Apr 1, 2010 6:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I’ve said many times that I wouldn’t be happy drafting Aldrich. Unlike some, I wouldn’t be absolutely upset, either. Posts saying he sucks I just don’t find grounded in much reality.
I generally agree that potential should win out on draft day, but I don’t consider it to be an absolute truth. Gerald Green had worlds of potential, that doesn’t mean he was the right person to be selected.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
Obviously it’s riskier, but loading this team with guys like Aldrich, Patterson, Singler, and even Anderson to some extent just continues the streak of mediocrity and sub-superstar talent. If you strike gold with Whiteside, you’re in the catbird seat. That’s where talent and personality evaluations are most important. Whiteside over Aldrich, Motiejunas/Veseley over Udoh, George over Pondexter, etc. Something’s gotta hit. I have faith DiLeo can make the right call
by Michael Levin on Apr 1, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t put Aldrich in the same category as Patterson, Singler, or Anderson. All of them I project to be defensive liabilities at the next level.
I have much more tolerance for a potential impact big who’s a role player than I do for a roleplayer who’s not a dominant defender.
The value I place on defense from bigs and point guards is exponentially higher than I do for wing players, so I tolerate role players more.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
You guys know that even though Whitesides a freshmen, hes still as old as most juniors, right? I think Coles the better pick here…
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
21 by the time of the draft.
That said, I do still see a lot of untapped potential.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
by Derek Bodner on Apr 1, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
More potential than Cole sure, but I dont think its thaaaaaaaaaat much more.
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
The guy I want, whether it be a reach or not, is James Anderson. He is what the sixers in my mind need, a pure scorer. He can light it up, hopefully like a poor mans Kevin Durant or maybe Rip Hamilton. You can drive the lane, and pass it out to him for the open jumper, and he will hit it. I think he will add a different dimension to the team besides runners/athletic players who aren’t running. When they start running again next yr, he will fit in well.
James Anderson isn’t a guy you draft in the top 10 and he has lots of question marks.
Rip Hamilton or Kevin Durant – how do they end up in the same sentence
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Sure they do...
They are both pure scorers. They both aren’t special in any other category. Durant is hype now, but Rip. was supposed to be the same type of player, and has lit it up for years. He is up there in age now, but that is there jobs, to score points. Anderson reminds of the same mold of player. They are scorers who can and will hit shots, especially open shots. Not many players on this team maybe short of Brand has a mid range game. That is why I want Anderson. I agreed with you, it is a stretch, but then again, no one knows where the sixers will pick. The sixers, and alot of NBA teams really need something like that. Evan Turner has the same type of good mid range game. I just don’t think he would be there unless the sixers get a high pick. Anderson is the next best player that fits the mold.
Also would like Demarcus Cousins. But for different reasons.
Evan Turner is the #2 pick in the draft
Anderson is a reach i the top 10 (possibly 15)
But since I don’t buy your Durant/Rip comparisons I’m not sure what else to say
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Aldrich...
Does not have any potential. He sucks. Maybe the sixers should consider Xavier Henry at the SG position. He has great athleticism, great work ethic, and is as good as a defender as Jrue. If the Sixers drafted Xavier, their backcourt would be unstoppable with all that athleticism, and defensive stoppers
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
He doesn’t suck – he has limited upside but he’s more polished now than a lot of the big guys in the draft – he doesn’t ‘suck’ he’s just limited
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, well good point, thats what I meant to say, but I do not believe he will be elite, or a starter, probably a backup
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
We are in a lousy spot... and each Ed gets his blame
EJ: With a decent coach this team would not be a joke. They would have a somewhat worse draft pick, but at least be competitive and watchable. Maybe without EJ every player on the roster aside from the rookie would not have regressed. Sure that last sentence demonstrated horrible grammar- but EJ makes you want to aim low.
ES: No PG, no coach, and then no realization that if they are going to stink they NEED a top 5 pick.
Mr. Ed (Snyder): Fire the sh!y-Eds under him 2 months ago… and you get a top 5 pick. By leaving the Ed’s hanging, he is sending a message of win or get fired. not the message this team needed down the stretch. I am confident that a new GM/Coach would have come in in January knowing that their jobs are secure enough to maximize the teams future. That means no 5 game winning streak. No playing through injury. And a real emphasis on player development… and a really good chance at WTF.
http://www.phillyarena.com - Philly sports forum/blog
Because honestly, this team’s best shot at becoming a contender anytime soon is by acquiring a franchise altering player through the draft. And if they go back to a 30+ win team next year without drafting a star, not only was the agony of this season all for nothing- but they will be locked into another 3 years of mediocrity… followed by several years of bottoming out similar to this one.
That’s why the 5 game win streak was the most painful part of this season. Because some team within 2-3 losses of the Sixers will be the recipient of a top 3 pick through the lottery. Just like how 3 years ago the team closed the year on a 18W-7L run, just to watch teams with 3 and 4 more losses get the top 2 picks.
http://www.phillyarena.com - Philly sports forum/blog
I'm from the future
We will get #2 and draft favors and he turns into Bosh 2.0.
by philsfreak6 on Apr 1, 2010 8:26 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
If we get the #2, I think we take Turner. I konw the big man argument, but this team also needs a scoring 2 gaurd. Iggy is a #3 who sometimes masquerades as a #2. I think that Turner would be a perfect fit as this team also needs a pure scorer (Elton and Iggy are not it).
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I think whomever gets the #2 takes turner…don’t they?
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Apparently Philsfreak would not. Im not saying its a awful idea to take Favors there, I just think that when you take a closer look at it, we need a #2 just as much as a #4. And seeing as how the positional need was probably the only reason people would consider Favors over Turner on this team, Turner seems like the obvious choice.
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
The sixers have multiple positional needs and should draft the BPA
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, thats what I was getting at.
You turned 3 lines into 1, nice job : )
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions
People are comparing him to Roy
If that is true, could he peacefully coexist with iggy and jrue? He played PG in college this year a bit. So with Iggy handling the ball alot to go along with Jrue, could Turner be properly used? I don’t really care. I just want a star. I think Xavier is gonna be the man, so if we get a low pick(10ish), then we should pick him or trade down to still get him.
People comparing himself to Roy are – um – wrong
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
So is anyone else bothered that the DX upside for Derrick Favors is “Antonio McDyess, in his prime” – i mean – sure he was alright – but really?
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 8:42 AM PDT reply actions
offensively, maybe. think he’ll be a better defensive player than McDyess from the moment he steps onto an nba court. prime mcdyess wasn’t near the defender post-surgery mcdyess was, as odd as that sounds. He got a lot better fundamentally and in the post.
Really, Al Horford with more offensive potential really is the best comparison. That being said, I hate comparisons. It’s an incredibly lazy way of saying what a guys strengths and weaknesses are.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
I love comparisons. It’s an incredibly lazy way of saying what a guys strengths and weaknesses are.
by Michael Levin on Apr 1, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
And of course we all know already that you favor the easy/lazy way out whenever you can :)
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Antonio McDyess’ “prime” never happened. He was an up-and-coming, and destroyed his knees. i dont get that statement at all.
by philiafan14364 on Apr 1, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
The prime in the context of the apex of his career. Every career has an apex, it doesn’t mean it was the highest apex possible.
Derek Bodner
derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
LibertyBallers || DraftExpress || @derekbodner
by Derek Bodner on Apr 1, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Let the Balls Fall Where They May!
And may we get the best possible pick. And may we pick the best possible player!
by Lombardi and Broad on Apr 1, 2010 10:57 AM PDT reply actions
If the sixers have the first pick and don’t draft john wall – they’re morons
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Evan Turner and John Wall are both rated #1 prospects
If the Sixers drafted John Wall where would Jrue Holiday go?
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
Do you know the story of the team that passed on michael jordan cause they were already set at that position.
John Wall and Evan Turner are not EQUALLY graded – they aren’t both “#1 picks” – John Wall is the consensus number 1 pick – there are a few teams MAYBE who pick turner over wall – utah for instance – or new orelans
Jrue Holiday has had half a good season and you’re ready to pass ona guy is a better prospect than derrick rose…
Do you not remember Thaddeus Young’s career? Is it that hard to remember that far back.
YOU TAKE JOHN WALL AND YOU WORK IT THE FUCK OUT
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Absolutely! Wall plays the 2. Jrue plays the 1. What's so difficult about that?
by Lombardi and Broad on Apr 1, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe that works or maybe it doesn’t – you don’t skip on john wall – if worse comes to worse jrue becomes a valuable trade piece.
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
cole aldrich?
Hopefully I spelled his name wrong. This guy is not going to the Sixers. not with Davis, Whiteside, Monroe still on the board. I assume You put cole’s name up there to stir the pot. It got me fired up. To tell you the truth I would rather have James Anderson, Paul George, or Xavier Henry than Cole Aldrich. If Stefanski is still around to make this pick he would know better than to select another forward/center to come off the bench. Same goes for a new GM making his first pick for the sixers. I have a feeling the sixers get one of the top three spots, can’t promise they make the right call when it’s time to pick.
Yes – draft the 20th pick in the draft with #7
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
The best player availabe at 7 – and I’m betting it’s not xavier henry
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
If we take him at 7 it’s not a huge reach. 9 is appropriate for need.
by Michael Levin on Apr 1, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
9 is appropriate for need if you only have one
the sixers have maybe 5 or so – you ain’t fixing this team with one pick – unless henry is the best player on their board when the sixers pick – they shouldn’t take him – they need players at every position (really) except one since the right ‘wing’ player fit with Iguodala no matter who is at the 2 or 3
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I wholly agree with drafting BPA, but if its between Ebanks/Aminu/Aldrich/Henry, one could argue that Aminu is the best player, but for down the road, Henry would be more beneficial and the difference isn’t so much that it’s worth taking another 6’8 wing that can’t shoot
by Michael Levin on Apr 1, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Our resident draft expert has seemed pretty down on Henry recently
by jemagee on Apr 1, 2010 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Some are more educated than others, some I respect more than others…
by jemagee on Apr 2, 2010 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions

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