Trade Machine: Lou Williams to the Magic
We've been beating the dead horse that is the Andre Iguodala trade dilemma for the last year, so I'm going to give it a rest until after the upcoming road trip. Instead, I've turned my attention to another ill-fitting piece with trade value, Lou Williams.
Lou's been a solid player during his tenure in Philadelphia, and exceeded all expectations the franchise had for him when they selected him 45th overall in the 2005 draft. Although undersized, he's an extremely talented scorer and gets to the free throw line at an absurd rate. The problem is – much like Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday – Lou needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and he's currently blocking Turner from playing and developing.
Another problem with Lou's fit on the Sixers is, although he's shooting a respectable 35% from beyond the arch, he doesn't stretch the floor like a Jodie Meeks or Kyle Korver. He has a relatively slow release and often hesitates when a playmaker sets him up for an open three.
The Sixers have enough guys who need the ball to be effective. What they need are guys who play off the ball, stretch the floor, and are willing to take and make open threes. Lou's not that guy.
Lou is a fringe starter in the NBA since he's not a true point guard and too small and defense-less to play shooting guard. His value is maximized when he's the primary ball-handler and isolation scorer on a second unit with a bunch of spot-up shooters for him to pass to.
With that in mind I took my talents to the Trade Machine to see if I could find a match.
After looking at the other 29 teams' rosters and situations I came up with a few teams who would benefit from Lou Williams' services. I proceeded to the Trade Machine to work out a logical trade for both teams. Unfortunately, I only discovered one that would make sense for both sides, and I proposed it on twitter.
Orlando receives:
Lou Williams
Philadelphia receives:
2011 1st round pick
For the Magic perspective I asked Ben, the Editor for Orlando Pinstriped Post. Here was his response via Twitter:
I'd do it.
Sounds good to me. Ben later tweeted that he actually wrote about Lou Williams being a potential trade target for the Magic last week. Here's what he had to say about Lou then:
Williams is another attractive fit for a lot of reasons, chiefly because he plays a similar game to incumbent Magic starter Jameer Nelson. A skilled pick-and-roll operator who averaged a career-best 4.2 assists last season, Williams can also call his own number and score from just about anywhere. He's a guy whose shot defenses must honor, a trait the Magic's backup point guard hasn't had since Keyon Dooling's days in Orlando blue.
From the Sixers perspective this would accomplish a few things.
- It'd open up playing time for Evan Turner, and solidify Jodie Meeks as the only undersized shooting guard on the roster. Ideally Turner would start at shooting guard next to Holiday next season and Meeks would come off the bench. Lou only complicates things.
- It'd net the Sixers a mid-20s first rounder and a much-needed big man prospect in Daniel Orton. More draft picks equal more options and flexibility. With the Magic' pick the Sixers could select a guy like Jordan Hamilton or Kenneth Faried.
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Kind of hard to get anything of value for an inactive player
But good luck.
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Dec 16, 2010 10:03 PM PST up reply actions
I'd love to get rid of Lou
And yes, I am a straight-up Lou hater, I make no bones about it.
He does have some value, but I’d rather see ET get more minutes. Not sure if this is the best trade, but there are some compelling reasons lined out. The salary taken on would be my biggest concern.
Writer for SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game
Twitter: @soundofphilly
I’d probably do it. I’m nowhere near as low as some on Lou (I’m probably about where Jordan stands with him) but getting a potential defensive big-man and an extra pick is more than good enough for me
"I'm a beast ready to be unleashed." -- Paul George
I'm like Flo Rida Low on Lou
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Dec 17, 2010 5:42 AM PST up reply actions
I loathe Lou...
…but I still would want something for him. And I hate the idea of taking on Duhon’s crappy contract to have him sitting on the end of the bench in streets, singing love songs with Mo Speezy, the Donger, and Krapono. That barbershop group is big enough already.
There’s no way they could get Brandon Bass for him, is there? :)
They should at least ask for someone useful, no? They might end up with Duhon, but like my dad always said when I was too shy to ask some girl out, “If you don’t ask, the answer is always no.”
Dweeb, if you're asking me out
The answer is yes.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / SBN Philly / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Dec 17, 2010 9:31 PM PST up reply actions
I’m low on Lou, but i’m also low on Orton. Even so, I’d probably do it just to get rid of Lou to open up minutes for turner and to give that slot to Meeks, who I think is a natural as a first guard off the bench, especially considering the skillsets of Jrue, Turner and Iguodala.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Dec 17, 2010 8:28 AM PST up reply actions
Some of the
trade Iggy guys are still gonna wanna see the Skywalker traded. Why not combine it with the Lou trade?
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=39jqyzf
Give BEAS (Peace, for all you slowheads) a chance ;)
Wesley Johnson is man crush worthy. But only when he's making shots.
Super Beas > You
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.....
I’ll repeat…“NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!”
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!! ptui! ptui! ptui!
Not so crazy about this one :)
Another guy on the Magic to bomb threes?
Maybe they’d be down. Only pieces they have that I’m interested in would be Gortat or Bass but theres no way they would give us one of them for just Lou.
How about...
…the Lou/Speights combo platter? Take a big guy, give a big guy.
Although I still think...
…Lou to the Pacers (JOB luuuuuurves him some jackers, and Lou is a jacker if there ever was one) for Psycho T (I admit my slight man-crush on Psycho T…I think his attitude would be a really positive thing for the Sixers…sort of a defense/rebounding version of Noce) and maybe Brandon Rush to keep the end of the bench warm (and make the salaries match up).
and maybe Brandon Rush to keep the end of the bench warm (and make the salaries match up).
You must really dislike Rush.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Dec 17, 2010 8:29 AM PST up reply actions
I remember his brother...
…a little too well. And he has a 9.6 PER this year.
Prof. Hollinger aside, I’d rather play Meeks in that role. But if you want to start Jrue and Meeks, with Turner coming off the bench, Rush would be an acceptable fourth guard, I guess. But I want them to get another PF who can actually bang a bit, for when the glass slipper falls off and Brand turns back into a pumpkin.
He has a 13.2 PER….
And his averages as a starter (15.7 pts, 4 boards, 2 assists), plus his three point shooting, plus his above average defense, he’s a much better all-around player than his brother.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Dec 17, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
Huh.
When I was on the trade machine, it said 9.6. My apologies to Brandon Rush.
His brother was just horrendous.
Another possible Lou trade
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=27w4rc7
A player like Brandon Bass would be more useful to us than Duhon and I think would be an upgrade over Speights. Maybe we could get a draft pick out of this as well.
Obviously...
…if we can get Bass back in a Lou deal, we do it. I have no real interest in Orton (knee problems, not sure if he’s any good to begin with), but he can’t be any worse than Speezy, although probably not as much fun on Twitter. And White Choco is a small expiring contract, if nothing else, and can probably give Jrue a breather every so often in a relatively competent fashion (although his D has always been atrocious).
Whenever you talk about trading a player, you don’t appear to take into account that if that player is helping the team win now, your going to lose his services, which means replacing them with someone else.
If the objective is to make the team better, production needs to increase not decrease, and you’d better get equal production in return for what you give up.
The biggest problem I have with any of these trades is that they all seem to hinge on the idea that these players are in Turner’s way. I think this is some of the most backwards idiotic thinking possible.
If Turner can’t beat out these players, you don’t trade them away. Eventually you cut Turner and walk away, or he starts to become worthy of playing time.
Even if you are for Mission BJ, there is no guarantee that Turner will ever be a decent player. Holiday , Meeks and Iguodala are all demonstrably better players. More likely more valuable to the Sixers than to other teams.
Did Tom Brady suck because he couldn’t beat out Drew Bledsoe until Bledsoe was removed from the lineup (RE: injured)?
Did Jermaine O’Neal suck because he couldn’t get minutes over a 35 Sabonis, a 37 year old Detlef Schrempf, and Brian Grant? They ended up trading him before he ever got a shot to prove himself.
Did Scottie Pippen suck because he couldn’t start over Sam Vincent and Rory Sparrow his rookie year ?
The concept of a players situation changing, and hence his productivity, isn’t exactly new.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Dec 17, 2010 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
That’s a legitimate question Derek, but this is not just about the player and their ability, but their coach and the confidence the player induces in them. Every successful coach has some means of evaluation, but it’s clear that Collins’ perspective is screwed up since the change in play has coincided with changes in who’s playing.
In fairness to Turner, he is playing behind some pretty good players ( sort of begging the question of why he was drafted in the first place when we already had players of his type) But Collins did give him a long look at the begging and in the course of play it became apparent that in most instances Thad or Meeks was the better choice. This is important, because it was through objective performance that Turner lost his spot in the rotation.
Turner’s still getting minutes but not doing anything with them, or nothing that would cause a coach to want to play him more. If he started to perform better, it’s logical to assume he would garner more minutes, I’m sure that management wants Turner to succeed.
BUSTS!!!!!
All of them!!!!
Seriously, the one thing I can dredge out is that making room for Turner shouldn’t be the only reason a trade gets made. I do think a trade should never be made unless either: 1) something at least as useful as what’s given up comes back (this can be draft picks, to be sure), or 2) to clear cap space to sign a free agent you really want (the infamous Korver trade, which seemed like a good idea at the time…no one had any idea that it would take two years for Brand to round back into some semblance of form).
For me, it’s the same logic as why I get a little irritated with all these suggested Iguodala trades that want to give him away for basically nothing…just get him out of here so Turner can have his spot. Iguodala is a valuable player, and value should be received. Obviously, it’s hard to get 1-1 value from a weak bargaining position, but I’d rather keep him until the right deal comes along, rather than strip the team of its most valuable trade asset just to say we made a deal.
Lou, for all his warts, is also a reasonably valuable trade chip. He provides quick-strike offense for a moderate price. Since there is value going out, there should be some value coming back.
I do think these guys need to be traded. I just want them to get something back for them that might make them a better team in the future (extra picks, young guys who have some upside). If they’re trying to rebuild, use these valuable trade chips to get something to rebuild with. Not just “It’ll get Turner more burn, and we’ll suck more.” This has to be done intelligently.
And yes, I know everyone disagrees with me, and would like them to ship out anyone who has a semblance of basketball ability for other teams’ bad contracts, just so the Sixers will get the #1 pick. I’m not so impressed with the top of this year’s draft that I would give away whatever value exists on the roster for it. There is no LeBron, no Dwyane Wade, no Kobe Bryant in this year’s draft, from what I can see. There are some nice players. But you don’t give away Iguodala (or Lou, since we’re talking about him, really) for nothing to get a better shot at a “nice player.”
/endrant
Whenever you talk about trading a player, you don’t appear to take into account that if that player is helping the team win now, your going to lose his services, which means replacing them with someone else.
Winning this season shouldn’t be a priority in the first place. This team’s ceiling for this season is a 2nd round appearance if they’re lucky. Most likely scenario is a first round exit or the lottery.
Lou’s value to the team this season hasn’t been that great. His shooting has been awful, His assists-to-turnover ratio is barely over 2, and he provides little-to-no defense. Trading him away and giving Turner his minutes, even if Turner hasn’t shown that he is better than Lou yet, will not hurt the team much if at all.
The downside to the proposed trade is that the Sixers may lose 2 or 3 more games than they would otherwise and they’d be stuck with Duhon’s contract. The upside is that Turner could develop to his potential with more minutes, Orton could get healthy and eventually turn into the post defender we’re all pining for, and we get a useful piece from late in the first round. The potential upside far outweights the downside in my opinion.
Yeh I’m with dweeb and derek – I’m real low on orton and would rather have the indy trade (I like rush – isn’t he a decent 3pt shooter to stretch the floor?).
That being said, I’d prolly do the orlando trade-any way we can get something other than duhon?
Nice topic though – gettin tired of only talking iggy trades
by shova on Dec 17, 2010 9:10 AM PST via mobile reply actions
How bout?
Win as many games as we can before trading any players not named Kapono, or Dongaila
Success will be the best revenge
by secondroundpick on Dec 17, 2010 11:56 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
lou
trade lou to a team that appreciates him. its crazy to see so many people hate on a guy that averages pretty good stats per 36 minutes… over 19 points, 5 and a half assists to under 2.5 turnovers (jrue’s a/t ratio is 2.31 lou’s is 2.17 hardly a substantial difference) and now a very acceptable 3 point percentage. sure his field percentage is terrible right now but if he was playing more i dont see how that wouldnt increase. oh yeah and he gets to the free throw line more often then anyone on the sixers in just over half the minutes. plus the dude is more exciting to watch then anyone on the sixers with the possible exception of holiday

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