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A statistical look at Barnes, Jones and Sullinger

This started off as a comment but got too involved, so I made a fanpost. It's early but let's take a look at how Barnes, Jones and Sullinger (Sams' top 3 right now) stack up against each other.

Thanks to statsheet.com, we can easily compare the three players so far.

Here is the link comparing Barnes, Jones and Sullinger. It's easy to add someone as well, if you want to look at someone else. Tobias Harris, anyone?

Note: Before we begin, I wanted to apologize for linking to my own site so much. I do not know how much college basketball readers here watch and while I provide a limited sample size of clips with these posts, they can often tell us much more than just reading about it or digging through box scores. Don't click on them if you don't want to but I thought they might be a useful tool for some.

Everyone is concerned about Barnes. What is most daunting to me is his lack of aggressiveness so far. He averages about 11 shots per game but has a free throw rate of only 26.2% (compared to NBA average of 31.2%- the only average I could find). This shows what I have been seeing, which is that Barnes is settling for jump shots and not seeking contact, to get to the line.

Will this change as he becomes more comfortable in the college game and UNC's system? I hope so. While UNC has been decent on offense so far (39th in adjusted efficiency) much of their success has come against weak opponents. In their 3 losses, UNC has an offensive rating of 88.2 (Minnesota), 90.3 (Vandy) and 91.8 (Illinois). They need some to step up and score consistently and if Barnes wants to be the #1 pick, he needs to fill that role.

Conversely, many people are jumping on the Jared Sullinger bandwagon. While he does a ton of good stuff, he needs some refining (as do most freshman, of course). His breakout game was against Florida but many of his buckets came off of OSU breaking the press and Sullinger getting open dunks. I wrote here that Sullinger has a limited arsenal of post moves right now. While he will continue to score in college, he needs some work on the offensive end to compete against NBA players.

That said, his rebounding rates are great and he gets a ton of easy points after attacking the offensive glass. I think that is his biggest strength right now and something the Sixers could use.

My favorite of the three so far is Jones. He has showed awareness on the court and an above average basketball IQ. Watch him seal the defender here and get an easy layup (here). That is a move I have not seen from Sullinger, who has tried to bully his way past the defense so far. Jones shows awareness of recognizing the defense and taking advantage of the holes.

Baylor has not played much competition yet, so it has been hard to draw any conclusions on him yet. If you get a chance, definitely catch a Baylor game. Watch Jones, but LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy are a joy to watch as well.

I know this is kind of a redundant post, but feel free to jump in with your own thoughts on these three.

Another user-created commentary provided by a Liberty Ballers reader.

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Excellent

Thanks for the links. I’ve never seen statsheet before.

by Jordan Sams on Dec 1, 2010 10:57 AM PST reply actions  

Stats

Statsheet is one of the best but there seems to be a few glitches every now and then. DraftExpress has some nice stats too, including some Statsheet does not have. I prefer statsheet to compare players and see advanced stats from individual games.

Of course, Kenpom.com is likely the best but he does not have individual stats yet, nor can you see game stats.

by JoshuaR on Dec 1, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Turner only had a 108.8 rating last year. That seems pretty low for all the numbers he put up.

by Jordan Sams on Dec 1, 2010 11:33 AM PST reply actions  

Its odd. At first, I thought it was a product of his minutes but he only played in about 75% of available minutes.

He had three bad games with a rating below 84, so that seems to have hurt him. That must have hurt him more than the good games helped him.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/ohio-state/evan-turner/game_stats?season=2009-2010&stat_type=1&game_type=1&chart1=offensive_rating_pct&chart2=&chart3=&chart4=&chart5=

by JoshuaR on Dec 1, 2010 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Turner broke his back in the first half of the Eastern Michigan game and only played 20 min in his first game back from that injury.

by mgfields on Dec 2, 2010 6:57 AM PST up reply actions  

That should have little effect on his offensive rating, since it only takes into account when he is on the court.

by JoshuaR on Dec 2, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions  

I love to hear other insight on P-III

by shova on Dec 1, 2010 1:54 PM PST reply actions  

Cool. Like I said, have not watched many of their games yet but expect to in the upcoming months. I am sure you will hear plenty about him on this site.

by JoshuaR on Dec 1, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I like PJ3 alot. Have not had a chance to watch him yet this year so interested to hear your insight on him. How’s his range been so far this year?

by prideoux on Dec 1, 2010 5:36 PM PST reply actions  

I’ve currently only seen 4 of Ohio State’s games (the fist 4), as I have to get caught up this weekend on quite a few prospects. That being said, I agree with a lot of what you’ve said about Sullinger. Buford, Craft and LIghty have been doing a very good job of getting past the first tier of defenders, and along with the overall shooting of the group (including Diebler), Sullinger has gotten a lot of uncontested looks and dunks off their penetration. When working 1-1 in the post, I think Sullinger’s post game has quite a bit of work to do to translate. Right now I find him mechanical and predictable, and while he has the strength to create enough separation at the collegiate level, he’s going to struggle in the pro’s if he doesn’t develop. Not that he’s a similar skill set to Greg Monroe, but Monroe’s showing some of the problems mechanical, predictable post players without great lift have getting their shot off in the pro’s. Clearly, Sullinger’s rebounding, hustle, and intangibles will make him a productive player. I just look at his post-scoring right now and not sure it translates into top option offensively. And he’s got a lot of improvement working on passing out of double teams, to further compound the problem. I think, right now, he’s more in the 5-10 pick range than the 1-5 range, but if he shows some refinement that could change as the year progresses.

I think Barnes is a better player than he’s shown so far, and think his skill level will still be one to warrant discussion as a top pick, but it’s hard not to be disappointed with his play so far, and I think you’re spot on with his aggressiveness.

I haven’t seen enough of Jones’ games to really comment, and it’s on my todo list, as I have all his game’s available to me, I just need to find the time.

Right now (with the caveat that I’ve only seen one game of Perry Jones), my top 3 are Barnes, Jones and Irving, in no order. Interesting to see what unfolds with Kanter this week.

by Derek Bodner on Dec 2, 2010 10:58 AM PST reply actions  

How do you feel about a Barnes- Marvin Williams comparison? I think Barnes can turn it around but am wary of players that can’t dominate college (even if only for stretches).

As for Sullinger, the more I think about it, the lower I am putting him on my board. Earlier this week I had Barnes/Jones/Sullinger in the top 3 for the Sixers but Sullinger does have a lot of places to improve.

Interested to hear thoughts on Jones. He could have a coming out party tonight against ASU.

by JoshuaR on Dec 2, 2010 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

I watched Baylor against LaSalle during the Tip-Off Marathon. Jones looked extremely raw but showed some flashes. Offensively he didn’t seem any more aggressive than Barnes has been. He looked extremely athletic and long though and the ball just seemed to find him when rebounding.

by yosoysean on Dec 2, 2010 12:19 PM PST reply actions  

Thanks for the insights on Jones y’all. He’s my #1 based on my unscientific research. Please keep em comin.

I just think the extra 3 inches and 20 lbs make him more unqiue since they have very similar characteristics otherwise (range, handles, etc). I havent seen what makes Barnes unique. Wall’s size and speed. AI’s pure speed and toughness. Shaq’s shaqness.

I was trying to come up with a comparative “nba role model” – in my mind, it HAD been Dwight Howard but I saw Garnett last night and was thinking back to when he was a skinny-ish 6’11". He’s still kinda skinny but man he is tough.

I have heard Kobe a possible “nba role model” for Barnes but dont see it yet. Maybe Penny Hardaway? Grant Hill?

by shova on Dec 2, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

I meant Garnett as NBA role model for Jones not Barnes. Just realized that was prolly unclear.

by shova on Dec 2, 2010 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

He gets compared to Tracy McGrady alot too. Have not seen an outside shot from him yet, so Garnett is a solid comparison right now.

by JoshuaR on Dec 2, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

cool. I just looked at Statsheet, my new toy, and was horrified to see his FT %. It jumps out when you use the comparison tool.

BTW – when I get fired becuase Im playing with statsheet all day, im gonna come looking for you. Damn.

by shova on Dec 2, 2010 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

BWT BTW – whats a ROLAND? Much less a ROLAND avg (which I assume is just an average of your TOTAL ROLANDS)?

+/- was kinda interesting.

Also I realize its small samples but…its all I got.

by shova on Dec 2, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions  

See explanation here:

http://www.82games.com/rolandratings0405.htm

FT% is bad, but only 18 attempts so far. I am not worried yet.

Statsheet is my downfall as well.

by JoshuaR on Dec 2, 2010 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

pretty cool thanks – looks like a net (on vs off) plus/minus… ok.

by shova on Dec 2, 2010 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Plus/Minus types of of stats have so many variables, I don’t really pay that much attention to them, for what it’s worth. Only if there is a major outlier on a team.

by JoshuaR on Dec 2, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Jones looked much better on the perimeter than in the post in the one game I watched him. He looked absolutely lost under the basket. Unless he significantly improve his strength/inside game then he profiles much more as a SF than a PF.

by yosoysean on Dec 2, 2010 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

from what I saw of him in high school, I always thought his skill set was better utilized as a tall 3.

by Derek Bodner on Dec 3, 2010 8:24 AM PST up reply actions  

I cant remember what Garnett was like as a 19 year old. I think it was similar. And I think he was always wanting to be looked at as a “3” – even as recent as like years ago.

If thats what we call a tall 3- thats our guy.

by shova on Dec 6, 2010 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Garnett was used as a three mainly because of his frail size, and his freakishly diverse defensive skills. I don’t think Garnett’s long term position was ever a 3, though, if for no other reason than to bring his rebounding closer to the basket. He went from being a “solid” rebounding three to one of the best defensive rebounders in the modern nba.

by Derek Bodner on Dec 6, 2010 6:03 PM PST up reply actions  

pretty sure he was used as a 5 i remember he adjusted his hieght down from 7’1" his rookie year cause he didnt want to play center. and Minnesota had a bunch of unhappy ppl in the wrong positions

by killacaravagio on Dec 7, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions  

yep – thats what i remember – never saw anyone revise height DOWNWARD. I thought it was pretty unusual and funny.

by shova on Dec 8, 2010 7:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Interested if you saw the IUPUI game. I think I have more questions about Sullinger’s ability to get his post game up against nba level length and athleticism after watching the game, despite Sullinger dropping 40.

by Derek Bodner on Dec 11, 2010 8:21 AM PST reply actions  

I did reply to you on twitter. Did not see that game, but those are concerns I had after watching several other games, including Florida. He does not seem to have a great back to the basket game yet and is flustered by double teams. Many of his points are because of work of his guards, not his own doing.

by JoshuaR on Dec 11, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

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