Number Crunch: Has Thaddeus Young Turned a Corner?
by Jordan Sams on Nov 29, 2010 6:41 PM PST
in Philadelphia 76ers Player Profiles
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PrintAs a 19-year old rookie Thaddeus Young looked like a promising part of the Sixers future. He accumulated a PER of 16.5, averaged 14 points per 36 minutes and shot 54% from the field. He played solid defense at two positions and was an average rebounder for a tweener (11.9% total). However; every year since then he's regressed. As his usage rate increased, his PER decreased – from 16.5 to 15.3 to 14.0 a season ago. His FG% dropped from 54 to 50 to 47. And his rebounding and defense fell off. He went from potential All-Star to completely worthless in a span of three years, with no real explanation.
Fast-forward to this season. Thad is 22 years old with three full seasons under his belt, and playing for arguably the best coach of his career. Though his development had been temporarily stunted, a breakout year wasn't completely out of the question. So no one should be too surprised to see Thaddeus off to a scorchingly-efficient start, in what may be the beginnings of a breakout season.
Through 17 games Thad has career-highs in PER (19.2), FG% (60%) and points per 36 minutes (17.4). He ranks 13th and fifth in TS% and eFG%, among players who've played at least 400 minutes. He's also shown minimal improvements in passing, turnover rate and defense.
Has he finally turned a corner, or is his hot start an aberration?
When people try to explain Thaddeus' hot start – including Thad himself – they often credit him with being more aggressive on offense and settling for less jumpers, which is a logical theory, but not completely true.
60% of Thaddeus' shots came from less than 10 feet last season, compared to 62% this season. He's taking more close shots, but it's a minimal increase.
He must be making a lot more trips to the foul line right? Nope. His free throw rate has only seen a minimal increase, from .20 to .23. And his free throws per 36 minutes have only increased from 2.8 to 2.9.
He must be taking less midrange shots right? Nope; actually more. 33% of Young's shots are taken between 10-23 feet this season, compared to only 23% last year. And he's converting at a lower rate.
One of the differences this season is the decrease in three point attempts. Last year 17% of Young's shots came from beyond the arch, compared to only 6% this season. But that still doesn't explain the spike in PER and FG%, because he's made up for the decrease in threes with an increase in midrange shots.
The major difference in Young's game is his conversion rate on close shots. Through the first three years of his career Thaddeus has made 59% of his shots from closer than 10 feet – his highest percentage being 62% his rookie season. This season he's converting at a whopping 77%.
So the idea that Thaddeus is attacking the rim more, or being more aggressive may be overblown. He hasn't seen a significant increase in close shots or free throws, nor a decrease in jumpers. The only difference in Thad's game – creating the illusion of vast improvement – is an impossible-to-maintain FG% on shots from closer than 10 feet.
If everything else remains the same, but Thaddeus starts converting close shots on par with his career percentage (59%), his sparkling FG% (60%) would drop to 49%.
So to answer the question: turned the corner or aberration? I'm leaning towards aberration.
The good news is the minor improvements in his passing, defense, and turnovers are likely for real.
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Look at this analysis
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So after all that...
…he still sucks and his start is a fluke. Awesome. Maybe his bulge in performance will convince someone to take a flyer on him in a trade, packaged with possibly Iguodala for a serviceable C.
Or maybe everyone knows it’s smoke and mirrors, and he’ll be playing in Europe next year.
I think we are seeing halfway between turning a corner and an aberration. Last season under EJ was a definite lost year for Thad. He’s always had a low Bball IQ and I think the princeton totally befuddled him. Now under Collin’s system I think Thad’s found a comfort zone. I don’t expect the numbers to stay gaudy, but I doubt they’ll drop off significantly.
I can’t seem to remember what happened to every Sixers’ rookie year before Jrue. Even though I was a fan since 07Thanks mom for the heredities.
Fake thug, no love, you see the slug, CB4, gusto, yo luck low, i didn't know until I was drunk though
by secondroundpick on Nov 29, 2010 7:49 PM PST reply actions
A few things:
1) You’re assuming Thad’s inside scoring efficiency decreases to his career norm, and this year is an aberration. But, what if last year was an aberration and it’s pushing down what would be his career norm efficiency ?
2) Why is is impossible to increase your efficiency on the same shots? His shot distribution may not have changed drastically, but I don’t think it’s impossible to have improved for a player so young.
3) Just because the location of his shots hasn’t changed doesn’t mean the shot distribution didn’t. Last year, only 36% of his jump shot attempts were when he was unguarded. This year, that number’s all the way up to 71.4%. He’s taking EASIER midrange jump shots, which obviously has an effect on efficiency (he makes 25% of his guarded jump shots, 50% of his unguarded this year). Similarly, he’s getting to his strong hand a lot more this year. Last year he actually attempted to drive more to his right than his left. This year, 61% of his drives are to his dominant hand. He shot only 42% on drives to his right last year. Again, improved shot selection, regardless of location.
It’s as much about picking the right situations to take a shot as it is the right location to take a shot. I’m of the camp that this is somewhere between turning a corner and an aberration.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Nov 30, 2010 8:20 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
1) You’re assuming Thad’s inside scoring efficiency decreases to his career norm, and this year is an aberration. But, what if last year was an aberration and it’s pushing down what would be his career norm efficiency ?
07: 62%
08: 60%
09: 58%
10: 77%
Last year doesn’t look like an aberration to me.
2) Why is is impossible to increase your efficiency on the same shots? His shot distribution may not have changed drastically, but I don’t think it’s impossible to have improved for a player so young.
Didn’t say it was impossible, but it’s hard to believe improvement from 59% to 77% will stick. LeBron’s best FG% from <10 is 70%, Dwight Howard’s is 63% and Iguodala’s is 71%.
by Jordan Sams on Nov 30, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
07: 62%
08: 60%
09: 58%
10: 77%
Last year doesn’t look like an aberration to me.
I didn’t say this years wasn’t an aberration (I said this in my conclusion), I asked whether 09 was. 4% is a fairly big drop off in percentages. If his norm year is in the 62% range, then that’s improved efficiency than his career numbers.
Didn’t say it was impossible, but it’s hard to believe improvement from 59% to 77% will stick
Two things.
1) I never said 77% inside 10 feet will stick
2) I was talking about improvements on his ENTIRE shot distribution, including the other 40% of his attempts not inside 10 feet. I also went on to describe why, based on shot type, his increased efficiency may be more than luck (going to his left more and shooting more uncontested shots).
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Nov 30, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
I was going to defend Thad, but Derrick already did a great job.
The problem with statistics is that until you really establish a true baseline of the players ability, you can argue anything and it appears logical, but is in fact not. Thad hasn’t had enough time in a consistent system to establish any baseline. I would throw out last season’s statistics, because he was misused by the former coach. Now, he’s being used like he was earlier in his career and he’s much more comfortable.
Players change over time, and this change is neither a straight line or necessarily for the better. But smart players who continue to work on their understanding of the game, learn to make better decisions. In general this makes them better players because they learn to play smarter, not because of any additional physical ability.
And, understand this: Thad is being underutilized, because we can’t get stops or control the boards. He is one of the fastest players in the league and would be the beneficiary of many breakaways, if the Sixers were able to generate them. Nothing boosts PER like a couple of uncontested layups!
Thad is not one of the fastest players in the league
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by Michael Levin on Nov 30, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
If you’re looking at Thad as a PF, he’s one of the fastest 1st round PF’s ever measured in the sprint at the combine.
Derek Bodner
LibertyBallers || @derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Nov 30, 2010 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
When the Sixers were last competitive and in the playoffs, Thad was the frequent beneficiary of many run-outs. He has a good sense of when to leave his man and head down the floor for an outlet pass.
I’m not sure of his foot speed or time in the 40, no one publishes stats like that for NBA players. But I see him continually getting open when he runs down the floor and is usually the first one down on a run-out, and I don’t see anyone catching him. Just apply the eye-test tonight when Thad is in the game and it would be the right play for him to run down the floor – see how often he is the first one down.
The point I made is that he’s under-utilized because the Sixers don’t force enough turnovers or control the boards or limit 2nd chance shots. All these things mean that Thad has to stay back to help rebound, which is not a strength of his. He has the potential to be a great SF in the league and may eventually grow into being a PF. He is an excellent part on a team lacking a good performing Center/PF combination. Right now his defensive shortcomings are magnified, as they are with all the guards and small forwards.
Uh, who’s faster and how do you know?
He absolutely has the potential to be a great SF in the league. He’s 6’8, 7 foot wingspan with a 3.19 3/4 court speed and an 11.06 agility.
Basically, athletically he’s a stud. And he knows how to use his skills in full and half-court situations. He’s able to easily penetrate inside the paint, he can hit the mid-range shot. And like D-Bods said earlier, he’s learned how to play within the flow of the game in increased minutes. Not forcing anything.
I wanna see Thad of 2 years ago. Awesome spot up shooter, he had a great floor game. To me, this is a work in progress. And it might be a good thing.
Remember, we were concerned about the whole Iggy VS Thad thing. Due to his regressions, it might be possible to resign him cheaply. I feel like if Thad gets a similar deal to Lou Williams, it’ll be a hell of a win-win for both of us. Thad/Sixers organization.
by LeQuan Glover on Dec 2, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions
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