Predicting the Sixers Future
Many of the Sixers young pieces are highly regarded within the fan base, to say the least. Ask a Sixers fan and he'll tell you that Andre Iguodala is the best perimeter defender in the NBA. He'll also tell you that Jrue Holiday is a future Hall of Famer, and Thaddeus Young is destined for 12 All Star games. Not even I have been immune to this overate-itis. But does a team with a 13-28 record really have that much talent?
First, I'll address the elephant in the room. Most feel that the coach who shall not be named is that bad and has that much of a negative effect on a talented roster. There's really no evidence to dispute this idea. I'm sure you've heard -- the roster was good enough to make the playoffs the past two years, they gave the higher seed run for their money, and have only improved since then -- at least that's the consensus in Sixers Nation. Do I think with the right system and one or two more pieces the Sixers could be a borderline championship contender? Maybe. But for the time being I want to project the "Big Five" as objectively as I can, and make predictions on how their careers will turn out. Keep in mind, these are my predictions. You can either agree or disagree. If you disagree strongly, please, post your own predictions. The idea is to get Sixers fans to take off the rose-colored glasses for a second and re-evaluate the talent on the roster.
Jrue Holiday
It's difficult to evaluate a kid (I can say that because he's younger than me) who's played a total of 538 NBA minutes, but anyone who watches Jrue on a regular basis knows he can defend. I'm not ready to call him great, but he's defended well when given a chance. There's something to be said about a 19 year old coming into the league wanting to defend. During an era of prima donas and "All Stars" being "All Stars" because they score 20 points a game, Jrue is a true throwback to the days of defense and The Secret. Keep in mind he's the youngest player in the League. Along with defense, Jrue provides a basketball IQ beyond his years. He has natural court vision and he's a pretty good passer. Add that to his NBA-ready body at 19 and his ability to rebound, and Jrue has a bright future ahead of him. However; his skills are still very raw and I'm not sure he'll ever be more than an average scorer. Here are my predictions for Mr. Holiday:
Career average: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals
All Star Selections: 1 or 2
All-NBA Teams: 0
All-Defense Teams: 1 or 2
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Lou Williams
Lou Williams is a poor man's Allen Iverson. Just like Iverson, he's a gambler on defense, but can't keep his man out of the paint. But unlike Iverson, Lou's offense will never be good enough to atone for his terrible defense. Sure, Lou might have some seasons where he averages 20+ points per game as a starting point guard, but it won't be for a championship team. Five years into his career it's obvious he can score at this level, but he has very little ability to run an NBA offense and he's a terrible defender. If he doesn't play defense now, he never will. As they say, "You either have it or you don't," and I don't think Lou has the point guard gene. The only way he will be able to help a legitimate contender is by providing 20 or so minutes of instant offense off the bench.
Career average: 13 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal
All Star Selections: 0
All-NBA Teams: 0
Sixth Man of the Year: 0 or 1
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Andre Iguodala
This one's a tough because I feel like Andre Iguodala would be doing great things if he was on a team with Kobe, D-Wade or a player of that caliber. Andre is destined to be a second or third banana on a championship team. Unfortunately, he's stuck being the Sixers numero uno. For a guy who turns 26 in less than a week the future doesn't look bright unless he's magically paired up with a superstar, whether it be John Wall via the draft or traded to a team like Dallas or Cleveland for expiring contracts. The reason I bring up his age is because he relies on his athleticism for most of the things he does on a basketball court. The Sixers have him locked up until he's 30-31, and odds are he won't even resemble the player he is now when he's 31 years old. By then he might take the Shawn Marion route and sign with a contender for the mid-level -- a shame in my opinion because he'd be the perfect sidekick to a superstar right now. Who knows, his game has developed so much since his rookie year, he might find a way to prolong the prime of his career, but he'll never win a championship as the main guy.
I spent all this time feeling sorry for the guy that I forgot to mention why he'd be such a good sidekick. He's a great perimeter defender, he's a great rebounder for his size, he's a good passer, his ball-handling is underrated, he has good court vision, he's fantastic in transition, and he's a decent jump-shooter as long as it's an open look. If he's the second best guy on your team you're in pretty good shape, and if he's the third best guy, you're in great shape!
Career average: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals
All Star Selections: 3 or 4
All-NBA Teams: 0 or 1
All-Defense Teams: 2 or 3
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Thaddeus Young
I was never the biggest fan of Thaddeus and I'm not going to predict big things from him. In my eyes, he's the small forward version of Lou Williams. He doesn't have a real position and he can't do anything besides score. Yes, he's young, but I've seen no evidence to make me think he's going to be anything more than an average player in this league. He's not great at creating offense for himself. He gets a lot of his points on broken plays and in transition. He does have a nifty post game, but it's only effective some of the time. I expect him to improve as he gets older, and he might join Lou on the "I can score 20 points per game on a crap team" team, but he can't rebound, defend, or pass. Like Lou, he's not a good enough scorer to start or get starter's minutes on a good team.
Career average: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
All Star Selections: 0 or 1
All-NBA Teams: 0
Sixth Man of the Year: 0
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Marreese Speights
Speights comes from the school of Lou and Thad where he can score well, but it doesn't make up for his bad defense. Out of the three I think Speights has the most potential, but again, unless he averages 30 points in his prime, his lack of defense will end up doing him in. In the sports world you hear the phrase, "This guy gets it!" Well, in Speights case I don't think he "gets it" at all. At the Summer League this summer, I managed to ask a guy who is highly regarded in terms of evaluating NBA talent what he thought of Mo Speights. He replied, "He has all the talent in the world, but is dumb as bricks."
Speights can't play defense or box out. He's a talented scorer, but doesn't take smart shots. He's shown solid court vision and passing ability for a big man, but he'd much rather shoot over a double team. He might be able to start on a championship team, but only if he's partnered with another big man who can defend the paint and rebound with the best of 'em -- ala Dwight Howard.
Career average: 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 block
All Star Selections: 0 or 1
All-NBA Teams: 0
Sixth Man of the Year: 0
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I've realized the talent on the Sixers roster isn't as sexy as I once believed. Sure, under a coach who stresses defense, defense, defense they might be able to push 40 wins, but they'd never be a championship contender. And after watching last night's Blazers/Sixers game I'm beginning to think that I underestimated the loss of Andre Miller. I forgot he had the ability to take over games. I forgot about his ability to run an offense. I forgot how good of rebounder he was. People forget the Sixers were 6-19 when he showed up in 2006 and finished 29-28. Was he the main reason the Sixers were halfway decent the past two and a half years? We'll never know for sure. We do know the Sixers were 6-19 before Miller and are now 13-28 after Miller. The past two and a half years with Miller? 110-111.
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nice write-up my man… on holiday i agree with you on everything except the all-star appearances but not because he doesn’t have the talent to do so in the future – it’s just because the other pg’s he’ll go up against… without accounting for where players will end up when jrue is ready we’ll have chirs paul, deron williams, rajon rondo, brandon jennings, tyreke evans, john wall, devin harris, derrick rose, and anyone else i forgot to mention plus some kids in high school now who eventually will emerge – it’s gonna be tough for him to get a spot on an all-star team but i sincerely hope he can do it
Very good analysis. Think you are underestimating Jrue. Also I’m still undecided about Thad. Put him at the three and then decide. He has the length to defend and he does want to win.
If Speights gets 17 and 7, he should make a couple of all star appearances. I think he can score more like 25 a game and get 10 boards. You don’t have to be that smart to play basketball. You just have to pay attention and understand on defense. He is actually rotating in concert with others on the floor now.
Brand was quoted as saying “It’s definitely not talent…it’s putting the right pieces on the floor at the right time, that we can defend and score at the right time. That’s what it’s about.” Reading between the lines he’s saying that He who shall not be named doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Very good post, Thad wants to win and is having a down year, he needs to get his game together fast though. Jrue will be the pointguard of the sixers for a long time though
I think “wants to win” should go with “killer instinct” in the Unmentionables Category.
by Michael Levin on Jan 21, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
No – I think we allow people to use it – it’s one of those indicator phrases – like plays the game the right way – or knows how to win :)
by jemagee on Jan 21, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
Actually what it means is that they work on their game constantly trying to improve. It’s what every professional does to stay competitive in their field. That doesn’t mean just going to practice and going through the motions.
I think plenty of these players don’t work on their games religiously. Which is why many of them don’t last more that 4 years in the league, even though they were drafted.
Well no – that’s dedication and work ethic – ‘wants to win’ is an asinine phrase talk show hosts and their flunkies use when they don’t like guys…
If a guy only works on one half of their game (say a 2nd year PF with a smooth silky offensive game but no interest in playing defense) – do they ‘want to win’?
by jemagee on Jan 22, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
i think that Jrue will have more than 12 ppg i think he could be like a chris paul except with much better defense
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
Chris Paul is the best point guard to play the game in a LONG time…Holiday can be good, he’s not going to be that good
by jemagee on Jan 21, 2010 3:45 PM PST up reply actions
Nice post. I’m with you on a bunch of these except I think Jrue can get up to 14-16 a game and there is obviously the clear line drawn between us about Thad. And I think Iguodala will be better at 31 than he is now. His defense shouldn’t decline, and while his athleticism may take a slight hit, he’ll be smarter with an improved jump shot.
Oh and Iguodala wants to win, so we have to take that into consideration
you know, you have a point there, I think Iguodala does indeed want to win. I kept reading that from other people and now I’m finally starting to believe it.
As for his jumpshot, he needs to work with a shooting coach and decrease the angle of his arch. By age 31, it should be much improved, that is, if he maintains his “wants to win” attitude.
do ya get credit for number one if iverson is that all-star?
by Tanner Steidel on Jan 21, 2010 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
very good, you have gotten about half of them right so far, not bad
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
lol
1.The Sixers will have their first all-star since Allen Iverson
lol,iverson is a all star
All seems pretty reasonable.
I think Jrue’s ceiling is higher, but because he’s so young, its tough to agree or disagree with any concrete predictions right. Speights might score a but more, but only if the rest of his game improves enough to get him the minutes.
Also, all I really want to point out is how much of a shanda it is that Iverson is an all-star starter right now. That’s ridiculous. At least McGrady didn’t get it too.
KG hass missed an AWFUL lot of games and slowed down this year and he’s an over all ‘frontrunner’ and a punk ass bitch – i’d rather see Iverson play – who has been a ‘good soldier’ since he signed on in Philly than that over privileged punk
by jemagee on Jan 21, 2010 7:48 PM PST up reply actions
But they don't even play the same position.
so it’s not a choice of one or the other -they weren’t voting against each other. They’re both in the game, and neither should be. It should be Rondo and Bosh, who have both been fantastic.
Yeah, I know – but I’d rather see Iverson in an ASG than garnett
the fans vote – the fans wanted Iverson – it’s an exhibition -
I think people care too much about something like this – which makes sense – people often care a whole lot about things that don’t really matter :)
by jemagee on Jan 21, 2010 8:22 PM PST up reply actions
I agree about Iguodala. I don’t ever think he’ll be a third banana at least until he’s well past his prime. If by third banana you meant in terms of ppg, then maybe. Pair him with a good scorer (and by good I mean in all aspects) and that could be a very talented combination.
I think it’s hard to assess Jrue right now. I think his points per game could correlate with the pace of the team when he’s running the show. Of course, that also depends on how many shots he’s willing to take/overall talent of teammates.
I know Thad is young (no pun intended) and he has room to improve, and I know that if I look up other great players’ career numbers I will see that they’ve had some down years, but really, the only thing I see him contributing is scoring at a high percentage and athleticism. I think he’ll thrive with a good passing PG. He’s the type of player that needs to be in a good system. Right now, he’s in a terrible system.
As for Speights, once again, room to grow. If he doesn’t learn how to defend well and box out, he won’t be a starter on a good team. I think his offensive ability is there, but how far he will go as a player is dependent upon his defense.
Lou – meh, he’s not a starter. At best he’s the sixth man off the bench. I especially agree with you on that one.
Blow up the team
We have too many small guards and “tweeners” who play a position but are too small for it and guys that don’t play defense.
Iggy is a great talent, but like was mentioned above he is more of a 2nd/3rd star, than a lone star. let’s trade him now while his value is high.
Jrue, Speights, Thad would be the only ones i keep that could start, with Lou and Brand coming off the bench.
It’s ultimately not going to happen, but a fresh start is a need for this team that’s been nothing but mediocre or bad for almost 5 yrs.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
Jrue Holiday is the right size to play the one and plays defense
Iguodala and Young are the right size to be SG and SF and one of them plays defense
Speights is the right size and athleticism to play PF or Center in todays NBA and can learn defense.
If the coach played the right guys the sixers would have better defense and appropriate heighted guys at most positions.
by jemagee on Jan 22, 2010 8:59 AM PST up reply actions

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