Stats of the Future
by jsams on Mar 29, 2009 10:05 PM PDT
in Recaps
19 comments
I just finished watching tonight's loss for second time. You might be asking yourselves, "Why does jsams put himself through the agony of watching a loss not once, but twice?" and "Does this dude have a life?"
The sole purpose for re-watching tonight's meltdown was to crunch stats -- not just any stats, stats that will revolutionize they way we analyze basketball.
These revolutionary stats weren't my idea. They were introduced by Bill Simmons in his latest column, Don't deny NBA stat geeks the truth.
Here were the stats Bill came up with:
I want "mega-assists" (passes that create a layup or a dunk) and "half-assists" (for each made foul shot). I want "unforced turnovers," like in tennis (Tony Allen would be Wilt Chamberlain in this category), and "nitty-gritties" (some combination of charges taken, deflections, balls saved from going out of bounds and rebounds tipped to teammates). I want "Unselds" (a long outlet pass that leads to an assist for a layup or a dunk) and "Russells" (a blocked shot directed to a teammate).
After watching the game and attempting to track some of these stats, there were some I liked and some I didn't like. As of right now this is nothing but an experiment. The stats I track are subject to change. I might add some stats, subtract some stats, or invent some stats. The ultimate goal is to perfect the system by next season and track for an entire 82 games. This is going to take a lot of work, and a lot of parties involved, but we'll worry about that when the time comes. Here are the numbers:
Mega-assists
Andre Miler - 3
Thaddeus Young- 2
Willie Green - 1
Andre Iguodala - 1
Half-assists
Willie Green - 3
Andre Iguodala - 2
Lou Williams - 2
Unforced Turnovers
Andre Iguodala - 3
Andre Miller - 1
Thaddeus Young - 1
Reggie Evans - 1
Donyell Marshall - 1
Lou Williams - 1
Nitty-gritties
Andre Miller - 6
Theophilus Ratliff - 3
Willie Green - 2
Andre Iguodala - 2
Royal Ivey - 2
Reggie Evans - 2
Thaddeus Young - 1
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A few things jump out at me.
After watching the game for a second time and tracking these stats, Marreese Speights was worse than I thought. He did absouletely nothing to help the team tonight. When people say he's hit the "rookie wall" it's an understatement. In 13 minutes he took five shots (all misses), committed four fouls, recorded only two rebounds and failed to get on the board in either of the new assist categories or the "Nitty-gritty" category.
William (Bill from now on) Green actually impressed. In basically the same amount of minutes, he contributed in more ways than Lou Williams. Is it possible that William is a better option than Lou? Probably not, but this is something to keep an eye on in future "Stats of the Future".
Andre Miller also played better than originally thought tonight. He dominated the "Nitty-gritty" category with six, mostly do to his extremely active hands on defense. And half of Miller's six assists went down as "Mega-assists" meaning they led to dunks or layups. I wouldn't have picked up on either one of these things if I hadn't re-watched the game.
As a team, the Sixers failed to record an "Unseld" or a "Russell". Now that I think about it, I don't think "Unselds" apply to the Sixers as much as other teams. Our version of an "Unseld" is Iguodala ripping down a defensive rebound, racing up court and either creating an easy shot for himself, or a teammate. He accomplished that four times tonight, by the way.
There you have it. The first installment of "Stats of the Future".
Let me know what you guys think, let me know if you want to help, and let me know what stats you like or don't like. As you can imagine, this takes a lot of time, a lot of rewinding and a lot of concentration. I don't want to track a certain stat if the majority of you think it's useless.
Obviously I won't have six hours to watch and analyze a basketball game every night, but I'll do my best.
I've already eliminated "Unselds" from my arsenal and added the "Iguodalas" (Defensive rebounds, coast-to-coast, easy shot for himself or teammate). By all means, chime in with any stats you'd like to see tracked.
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i love the new stats
i think they tell a whole lot more about how a player performed outside of the traditional box score…I’m sure John loves the “Russell” stat…I’d love to contribute in any way, but i think watching the games on-line would hamper my effectiviness in catching the intangibles (hell, sometimes the picture is too blurry to tell who is even on the court).
by SexualTyrannosaurus on Mar 30, 2009 8:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Cool, cool.
Since you don’t always have access to a good picture you could think of some potential stats to be tracked and/or some that you don’t think are all that useful.
by jsams on Mar 30, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see how the Sixers
fair in the “stop” and “superstop” categories that Simmons talks about…. I will check these for Tuesday’s game if you want…. also he talks about “unforced turnovers” wihch you kept track of but i’m wondering what a forced turnover would be….if anyone has any idea i’d like to hear it…. i guess related to that, jordan, what types of things did you count for “unforced turnovers”; just curious
by tsteidel on Mar 30, 2009 11:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that'd be cool if you counted stops and superstops.
Unforced turnovers were tough. They were completely subjective, and will never be completely accurate until we get a definitive definition or we have numerous people tracking.
The things I counted as unforced turnovers were:
Iguodala’s bogus travel, because the defender did nothing to force him to travel. Iguodala’s behind the back pass to the top of the key, which was easily stolen by Iverson, because it was a stupid, lazy and unnecessary pass that I could’ve stolen if I was Iverson. And I can’t think of Iguodala’s third off the top of my head.
I counted Reggie’s travel as an unforced turnover, because he just threw the ball up and caught it. No one forced him to do that.
Basically all travels/double-dribbles are considered unforced turnovers in my book, which reminds me. I forgot a Thaddeus Young travel. I’m about to add him to the unforced turnover list. See why we need more people doing this? Hopefully by the start of next season we’re on the ball.
I also counted Donyell’s pass up of an open shot at the end of the (half?) as an unforced turnover, because with one second left on the clock, you have to shoot it. He passed it instead, and I don’t think it showed up at a TO in the box score, but it will in my book.
by jsams on Mar 30, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Would anytime Reggie or Sam take more than 1 dribble...
and then miss or make a TO be considered an unforced TO? How about when Lou jacks a 3?
http://www.phillyarena.com - Philly sports forum/blog
by tk76 on Mar 30, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Game's on week nights are going to be tough to track.
I’m going to have to attempt to track the stats during the live game, because there’s no way I’ll have time to re-watch the entire game every night.
I’ll probably track stats during the game and go back and look at the tape on questionable calls (much like they do on three-pointers in the NBA).
Tanner, if you want to do “stops” and “superstops” that’d be great, but I won’t hold it against you if you aren’t able to.
And I can probably track “Mega-assists”, “Half-assists”, “Russells” and “Iguodalas” during the game, but “unforced turnovers” and “nitty-grittes” require being 100 percent focused or re-watching the tape. If anyone wants to attempt tracking one or both of those that’d be cool.
With only 10 games left, this whole stat-tracking thing is just a trial run, and we’ll have an entire off-season to come up with a plan on how to track for an entire season, assuming there’s enough people who are interested.
I think we can come up with better stats as well.
by jsams on Mar 30, 2009 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
with only 10 games left.......
You are expecting us not to be in the playoffs? After the last 2 games, I don’t blame you to think that!
by DeanH on Mar 30, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm almost positive we'll be in the playoffs.
But I’ll be so focused on the playoff games themselves, I won’t be worried about tallying stats.
by jsams on Mar 30, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well like i said when i suggested it – it’s more than a one man (or one team) project as I envision it – if we can get people really intersted – a lot of them – with league pass (you can watch games online in archives as well) it could turn into something.
:)
"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."
Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.
by jemagee on Mar 30, 2009 3:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, definitely.
I figured I’d experiment with it now though.
by jsams on Mar 30, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d be interested in a stat that tracks the number of assists that are blown by the assistee. Let me give a few examples of what I’m talking about:
A guard drives and kicks the ball out to a shooter who bonks a wide open 15 footer. ASSIST FAIL! Note that I think this should only apply if the shooter in question should be able to make said shot. If Reggie Evans takes that shot, it really shouldn’t be counted.
Player A (let’s say Iggy, for example) drives to the basket and dumps the ball to Player B (let’s say Samuel Dalembert) who is WIDE open under the basket. Only problem is Player B is not paying attention and the ball glances harmlessly off his hands and out of bounds. ASSIST FAIL!
by zfg on Mar 30, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you willing to help with that :)
"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."
Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.
by jemagee on Mar 30, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about ollie’s… that’s how many minutes an indian-looking black dude spends on a sixers bench.
http://www.libertyballers.com/
by Remis on Mar 30, 2009 7:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This comment leads to a whole new avenue of research into the general make up of the fanbase
"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."
Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.
by jemagee on Mar 31, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, if there’s only 100 fans, then at least 1% is somewhat racist
http://www.libertyballers.com/
by Remis on Mar 31, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ur kind of an asshole btw
http://www.libertyballers.com/
by Remis on Apr 3, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hears a pretty cool stat to track,
the NBA already keeps track of it, but just doesn’t release the info, and Iggy shows up on the list of league leaders.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-38-372/The-End-of-Quarter-Killers.html
Hear comes Rodriguez, no look to FerNANDEZ - WHAT A PLAY!!?!! HOW did they Pull That Off - FERNANDEZ THE STEAL - GOOD IF IT GOES -AAAAAAAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHH!!!!!!1111!!!!!!!!! - Kevin Harlan
by Screen Name on Apr 1, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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