Philadelphia 76ers: 10 Predictions
by Jordan Sams on Oct 2, 2009 12:03 PM PDT
32 comments
My official preview for the annual blogger preview series comes out Sunday, but today I'm going to give you 10 random predictions that didn't make the cut.
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Disagree on several
Agree:
The Sixers will have their first all-star since Allen Iverson. I think 2 actually
Jason Smith will be the most productive big man off the bench.
Elton Brand will silence the critics who think he’s a “bust” and that the team is better off without him.
Marreese Speights will take a step backward this season. sadly, definitely
Rodney Carney will be the most productive wingman off the bench.
Samuel Dalembert will have the best year of his life. – definitely agree
Disagree:
Bill Green, yes Bill Green, will give the Sixers 10-15 solid minutes off the bench. – You must have taken some pills that I have, no way!
Eddie Jordan will upset a lot of fans of by not playing Jrue Holiday enough. – wrong, he will force EJ to play him for defense.
Jason Kapono will shoot a career-low percentage from beyond the arch. – wrong IMO
No player will average more than 20 points per game. – I think 3 will average over 20pts a game (AI9, Thad and Elton B and possibly even Louuuuuuuuuu)
But, this is the fun part, we will see!
Championship?
I think 3 will average over 20pts a game (AI9, Thad and Elton B and possibly even Louuuuuuuuuu)
If we had four players average 20 PPG, I’d love to see either A) how many wins we have or B) how bad our bench is.
two allstars?
who?
Iggy and who????
Maybe Brand?
by chillicothe20 on Oct 2, 2009 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Solid calls Jordan, I’m on your side for all except Sammy D, and I think Brand will average 20. This results in a barely above .500 season. I’m sure you’ll put up a wins post soon, but to jump the gun, I’ll say 43-39 and the 5th seed.
Yeah, everything will be covered in my Preview post. Unfortunately it comes out on Sunday when everyone, including me, is watching football, but I’ll leave it as the main post into Monday. It’s mainly geared towards non-Sixers fans, but I think you guys will enjoy it. The idea is to have a preview that all the other team’s fans and bloggers can read and learn from.
As for Elton averaging 20, it could happen, but he could also be the third leading scorer in my mind. We’ll see though. I was reading everyone’s prediction last year and we were all way off.
by Jordan Sams on Oct 2, 2009 1:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Bold Predictions
I disagree on the 20-pt scorers though. I think the SIxers will play at a much faster pace this year, which enable them to get up better high percentage attempts. As a result, AI, EB & TY will barely crack 20 apiece, but AI’s assist numbers will be higher.
IMO, 45-50 wins. If Sam keeps making honor roll and Carney & Kapono can become legit rotation players, 50 easily
Definitely agree on <20 pts but somewhere around 18 each for the big 3. I think maybe a little less for Brand, like 16. That makes sense tho, since no 1 player will be featured in the system, different teams will give different players less attention on a given night, and we can go a pretty deep rotation.
Everyone forgets Willie Green is actually a solid player, hes just not a starting caliber 2 guard or worth his contract. He is really streaky offensively, with fewer hot streaks, but how many bench players arent? He definitely deserves more than 10 mins per night, its not like we have a ton of guards. I wouldnt be surprised if hes our 6th man, as I think Smith will have a learning curve early. Yes, he improved his shooting, but he may need to adjust a little to NBA speed after only 1 year of experience and sitting out last year.
Speights and Jrue are big questions at this point, without any real clear role, and are hard to predict. We all don’t know much about Kapono personally at this point either, just his reputation. Hard to agree with the prediction tho, since if hes on the court, he should only really be shooting high % shots. If hes back to making bad decisions, then he wont get much p/t. Carney is better all around anyway.
I wasnt expecting the Dalembert comment, but it does have a little leeway since he hasnt had any really outstanding years to have to beat out…
Also @ Mojo,
What would you say qualifies as “much faster” than last years “run and gun” style. We’ll still take any fast break opportunity, and if the defense improves there could be more of those. But its still a new offense that everyone has to get comfortable with. But I do like your optimism.
About the Pace
Here is the thing about the recent editions, they actually played at a much slower pace then most of the league, even though they were among the tops in fast break points. Sounds counter-intuitive, until you remember how they played last year. If they did not get the break, they tended to exhaust the full 24 second clock probing with their isos and stagnant movement. Plus, their defense, when it didn’t produce the quick turnover, tended to make the opponent run some clock too.
Jordan’s teams, OTOH, tended to play closer to a top 10 pace wise. Which means the team will still have the same emphasis on running, combined with a motion offense predicated on finding the best shot as efficiently as possible. It means quicker possessions, less methodical approach. Hence the faster pace, and more offensive production for our big 3, as well as thoroughbreds like Carney, Lou, Smith Speights, & Jrue, with Kapono functioning as a trailing weapon.
This was my thinking exactly.
Definitely agree on <20 pts but somewhere around 18 each for the big 3. I think maybe a little less for Brand, like 16. That makes sense tho, since no 1 player will be featured in the system, different teams will give different players less attention on a given night, and we can go a pretty deep rotation.
As for Green.
I’d still rather see Carney or Kapono play over him, but the thing about Green is he can play point guard as well. I think that’s where he’ll see the majority of his minutes.
4.Marreese Speights will take a step backward this season.
I don’t understand why everyone is down on Speights on here. Just because you don’t read about him everyday doesn’t mean he isn’t working out.
I read today that he packed on 8-10lbs of muscle this summer since Jordan said tat he is going to be playing center.
fightlockdown.com
I’m going on what I saw last year and this year in the Summer League. I’d like for him to prove me wrong though.
Correct me if I am wrong but did anybody look good on that summer league team? All I remember from the 76ers/Nets summer league team is the commentators making fun of the team and talking about irrelevant stuff. So I am going to wait to judge him when he is with his team and not playing with some stupid summer league team.
fightlockdown.com
Jrue played really good defense. That’s what I was looking at. Speights put up good numbers, but settled for way too many 20 footers and didn’t play a lick of defense. Based on his defensive reputation last year, this concerned me. He has all the tools to be a dominant player on both ends of the court. Maybe Eddie Jordan is the type of coach he needs. If I remember correctly, EJ called him out a couple times for his lack of D in the SL.
I think Speights will be starting next to Brand by March
Spieghts may have his ups and downs, but he has rediculous talent and is made for the Princeton offense.
http://www.phillyarena.com - Philly sports forum/blog
If Sammy D is a problem then I agree that Speights will be starting by March and I agree that Speights has rediculous talent and is made for the Princeton offense but it seems like Eddie Jordan is going to try and make it work with Sam and so far it sounds like Sam has been one of the best performers at training camp.
fightlockdown.com
Speights
I would love him to be a starter with Sammy on the bench by March but he did not seem like he did much this summer. Never read or he said anything about practicing this summer other than bulking up. Never read 1 time that he was hanging around team mates playing ball. If I am wrong, then he may have a breakout year but …..
Predictions:
With all the passing involved while running the Princeton O, I see Sammy D being a turnover machine. Sammy D had trouble last year with basic outlet passes after a rebound. So how will he perform as a pivot man in the new offense? I see a bad year ahead for Sammy D.
The emergence of Jrue (the steel of the 2009 draft) as a defensive ninja will lead to major minutes by All-Star break. The second half of the season should bring major minutes to Jrue as Green sits on the pine.
It would be great to have a team that is feared for its defense. If we’re going to get out of the first round of the playoffs, we better make sure everyone is on the same page and we pressure our opponents on defense. We are deep with mediocre talent. Larry Brown has made a carrier out of teaching defense. Defense is the only way we can exceed expectations.
I have no idea what to expect from E Brand. He has to produce better than last year’s 29 games. Okay, so that isn’t asking too much but small steps for now. With an ineffective Sammy D at center, Brand may have a breakout year. Who knows? I worry about the chemistry on this team. We need a leader to emerge and you just can’t take a poll. At least more time than a week of drills. Leadership develops with time. None of our players seem to define leader. And that’s not necessarily a knock on the guys, it’s just what I see through my lens of a TV and computer. Reading player bios will make E Brand the one but not necessarily the right one.
I want to see a leader emerge. I want a team with defensive swagger that is backed up with tenacious play. I want a never quit attitude. I want a hard foul from time to time to let the Celtics and the others that sit at the top know they get nothing free when they play the 76ers. I want Jrue to shine as he becomes another one of our budding stars joining AI9 and T Young as the core of the 76ers. I think this whole year is a long training camp. Yes, I think we make the playoffs but we won’t go deep. My goal for the team is to make the playoffs and win in the first round.
Defense
I think the 6ers could have a top 5 defense. Jettisoning Evans and Miller while getting more minutes from the likes of Smith, Brand, and Holiday should make this team better defensively.
Hmmm
Well if they have an all star it won’t be a voted starter…and if it’s a reserve I predict a replacement reserve.
Disagree on Jason Smith…IF he’s the most productive bench player – I believe that’s bad – no way he should out produce speights – and i’d hate to see him more productive than Holiday
Not sure brand CAN silence his critics but I expect him to have a very good season.
If Speights takes a step backwards offensively but gets better defensively I consider it a step forward :)
If bill green averages only <=15 MPG I’ll eat something gross
The rest I guess are fine except of course the Dalembert comments – no one in hell
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 4, 2009 12:25 PM PDT reply actions
I said big and Holiday's a guard.
Disagree on Jason Smith…IF he’s the most productive bench player – I believe that’s bad – no way he should out produce speights – and i’d hate to see him more productive than Holiday
Yeah, i skipped a thought in there.
the thought/name i forgot is that Smith shouldn’t be more productive than Speights…
So to me he should be the 2nd most productive big man and third most productive bench player – at best – and if he is more productive than speights it’s a failure on speights part and that would make me sad
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 5, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmm…this doesn’t bode well for jordans sam prediction
Samuel Dalembert just doesn’t get it. After spending most of last season complaining about his role, Dalembert was at it again at media day, yapping about his playing time and telling reporters “you cannot produce when you’re not out on the floor.” And it wasn’t as though he was being baited, either: I’m told that the questions posed to Dalembert were of the softball variety. Dalembert still has a warped sense of his own value, which is crazy considering he has never averaged more than 10.7 points in a season.
Jordan says he believes Dalembert can be a big part of the team’s success.
“We want Sam to feel comfortable and excited about the season and positive about it,” Jordan said. “We can be so good with him being good. Our guys are willing passers. They are unselfish. He will get the ball. When you want to pass and you want to defend, that means you have a good group. That’s what wins in the NBA. In the scheme of the offense, the [play] revolves around the center. In a sense, he’s the focal point. But everyone has to identify who are our core scorers. It’s going to be Andre [Iguodala], Thad [Young], Elton, Lou and then Samuel, probably in that order.”
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 4, 2009 12:51 PM PDT reply actions
I saw that.
I still have faith. I’m one of the fans who still thinks he’s an above average defender and rebounder and I think this offense will let him have the best offensive year of his career — which isn’t saying much.
There’s a similar ‘debate/schism’ in Philadlephia Phillies fandom…his name is pedro feliz…now in baseball it’s different – but the argument is the same to me – and it goes something like this.
How much good defense does one have to play to offset offensive crapitude.
In baseball (to me) defense is a lot less important in terms of ‘contribution’ than in basketball….i mean you can got a game without making a ‘hard’ play but you’ll come to plate 3-4 times…basketalll it’s a more even split.
Sam is still foul prone, and while he whines about not having 5/6 fouls and still finishing on the bench – it’s possible to do damage defensively without making fouls IF YOU DON"T KNOW WHAT YOU"RE DOING…and sam more often than not strikes me as clueless on defense…and more reactive than instinctive – he’s quick which helps – but i still don’t think he’s smart defensively – against a big man of any type of skill he’s useless
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 5, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
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