How much better are the Sixers without Brand?
by Jordan Sams on Jan 12, 2009 10:02 AM PST
58 comments
These are just a few things to ponder on this boring Monday.
Obviously the Sixers are playing well without Elton Brand. They've won four in a row and everyone is settling into their specific role on the team. They are out-running, out-hustling and out-jumping teams, just like they were on their huge run late last season. Remember when Lou-Will was struggling with his shot and was barely getting off the bench? Yeah, well not anymore. Remember all the "Andre Miller is over-the-hill" comments? No more. Remember the Andre Iguodala fiasco where just about everyone wanted a refund on the 80-million dollar contract? No more.
What's been the difference? Are they playing better basketball because DiLeo is running the show instead of Cheeks? Or is it because Elton doesn't fit with this team? Well, I just did some research and I'm pretty positive there's at least one player who Elton has a negative effect on. That player is Andre Miller. At first glance, his slow start looked to be a result of either his age, his off-season plan or lack thereof, but the statistics say Elton Brand has something to do with Andre Miller sucking earlier this year.
All these stats are via basketball-reference by the way.
Here's the rundown:
Since the Elton Brand injury, Andre Miller is shooting a gaudy 52% from the field. Before Elton dislocated his shoulder Miller was shooting 45%, which is respectable, but nowhere near the 52% he's shooting without him. Before you get all hot and bothered, I'm completely aware that this is a very small sample size, and Andre Miller has a reputation of starting slow, because he basically takes the summer off and uses the the first couple weeks to get in game shape. At least that's the impression I had, and I've read that in numerous places, but looking at the numbers, that's not the case. For his career, Miller has collectively shot 44% in the months of October and November, which is only 2% lower than his career average of 46% and 2% is nothing to get excited about.
Here's where Brand comes in. The thought that Andre plays his worst basketball with Elton as his teammate would not have even crossed my mind had they not played together for a season in Los Angeles. The season was 2002-2003. Andre, a 26-year old stud, shot a career low 40.6%. So, the common denominator in Miller's shooting woes isn't the fact that he's old and starts slow; it's Elton Brand. Why? You're guess is as good as mine. It will definitely be interesting to monitor when EB returns from his injury. Here's the key numbers one more time.
Andre Miller's shooting % without Elton this season: 52%
Andre Miller's shooting % with Elton this season: 45%
Andre Miller's shooting % without Elton for his career: 46%
Andre Miller's shooting % with Elton for his career: 42%
Other questions that need to be answered when Elton returns are: Will Andre Iguodala continue to play well? Lou Williams? Will DiLeo integrate Elton better than Cheeks did? And who will move from the starting lineup to the bench?
For what it's worth, Hawks coach Mike Woodson thinks Brand and the Sixers will be fine.
And for the record, this story of Brand returning in 2 weeks is a week old, so his return should come sometime in the next week or so.
Happy Monday guys and if you're like me and have to return to school today, good luck and hit on as many college girls as you can!
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I know this is a common comment being made across the sixerverse, but Miller always starts out slow, the new coach is implementing his new system and other guys were getting into their stride, maybe it’s because Brand is out or maybe it’s just because they get off to slow starts / cheeks was a bad coach.
(And I don’t think Brand was ever 100%, hopefully he is when he comes back)
Until Brand comes back and is integrated into the new DiLeo coaching system, I don’t think any conclusions can be made about with or without Brand BEING the reason they have played better under Dileo (though it’s not like they are stunningly better – they’re 8-6 overall and having some really piss poor rebounding games which brand would really help)
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions
my god, this is a horrible fkn article.
the problem was simple; the sixers started the year with 5 starters who all thrive by playing on the inside. there wasn’t enough room on the inside for all of them to get their shots, and there wasn’t anyone on the court (besides thad, who is awesome, but passive) who was hitting shots on the perimeter and forcing the opposing defenses to extend to the 3 pt. line.
dileo is kind of trying to change that with his ‘if it’s open, you damn well better take it’ mentality, so i guess i like what he’s doing.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
i'm not even trying to be a hater, but no, no elton is not the problem.
thad should, under no circumstance, be taken out of the starting lineup, and iggy has proven that he’s not a SG.
reconciling that when elton comes back looks to be a hard assignment, but it could have been avoided with an $80 million rebate check.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
Not trying to be a hater but implying Iguodala should be sent away for nothing – interesting
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
we've been over this before
sam-elton-thad is a very good front line. andre miller is a very good PG. the weak point is the fact that the SG is a black hole who can’t hit an open shot (or a FT) with regularity.
i trust my instincts, and though i have been wrong before (especially about that dalembert-hunter-noah frontline), i really do think this team would be better off if iggy had a jeff gilhouli moment.
i believe that the catharsis that comes from a major injury (or, to make a parallel, from a major trade, say bobby abreu to the yankees or kyle korver to the jazz) is a good thing in the long run, because it allows for young players to step up and assert their worth.
if abreu hadn’t been traded, shane victorino would still be a 4th outfielder. if aaron rowand hadn’t been allowed to sign with SF, where would jayson werth be? if kyle korver hadn’t been traded, what would have become of thaddeus young? or rodney carney?
i think that if iguodala were removed from this team, the pieces that would replace him would leave this team still in a similar position. i think, in that case, thad would step into a larger scoring role, as would marreese and louwill. and royal ivey would maybe have a breakout where he would turn into a flip murray who could actually play D.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions
Oh BOY – you mean if we got rid of Andre Iguodala – we could have a flip murray clone – sign me the fuck up right now.
Seriously – it’s nice to see that iguodala is purely screwed in some peoples eyes who can’t see that his all around game is quite good – stop having unrealistic expectations for the guy and maybe appreciate what he can do – you seem obsessed with pointing out that he makes 80 millon dollars and should be the ‘star’ of the team.
A. He’s never going to be the focus of any team – he never has been – it’s not his game – and nor should it be
B. 80 million is not SUPERSTAR money – jesus christmas – Rashard Lewis is a second banana and got how much from the magic?
Like Abreu, Like McNabb – it seems that Iguodala is doomed to be a victim of unrealistic expectations from philadlephia sports fans.
Ah well – i’ll still have my ‘retro’ #4 jersey
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions
rashard lewis can hit a 3.
and iggy is most definitely not in that echelon of player. i know this. you know this. i have no unrealistic expectations of the guy; my feelings are actually quite opposite of that. i expect so little out of him that i think he should be a bench player.
what does he do well? he’s an average rebounder, he’s an average defender, but he dunks exceptionally well. he leads fastbreaks. he takes shots well…i’d just have to say that it would be a little better if he would improve at making them.
i can’t say that i’ve never been an iggy fan, but at this point, i cannot believe that any successful team would have iggy as it’s top shottaker.
i mean really, the guy is a worse 3 pt. shooter than charlie villanufknueva. how could anyone believe that he is gonna lead this team to anything other than a first round exit in the playoffs?
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
how could anyone believe that he is gonna lead this team to anything other than a first round exit in the playoffs?
And there’s your problem right there – you think for some reason he should be the leader of the team, i never expected him to be and anyone who expected him to be knows very little about andre iguoala
Yup – he’s definitely average – so many guys come close to averaging 20-5-5 every year it means nothing.
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
taking damn near 16 shots a game will help with that
19.9 points on 15.6 shots per game. in 2007-2008 the only player to score less and shoot as much was brandon roy. take what you want from that.
i just want to point one more thing out:
he shot 50% from the field in 2005-2006. he shot 35% from beyond the arc that same season. he shot 82% from the FT line in 2006-2007.
if he was still that player, he would very well be worth 80 million. i have not seen that player this year. that’s what i’m saying.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
and if what you want to take out of this is that elton brand is the problem
then why don’t we trade him to the knicks for starbury. after all, iggy had his best years with iverson dominating the ball, so that problem would be all gone if only that one move would be made.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions
oh, wait, i guess i already covered that with my endorsement of jonny flynn
as the next sixers first round draft pick.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions
Who’s a better player – Brandon Roy or Andre Iguodala?
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
i don't care
one’s untradeable; the other’s untouchable.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Hypothetically would you trade one for the other?
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
no idea
i haven’t seen roy play enough to say. plus there’s the salary considerations, which would likely mean having to take on the ghost of darius miles.
it’s not that i want to see iggy traded or keyshawned, i just think A) he shouldn’t have been given that contract, and B) h e’s not better than dalembert, brand, or thad, and as a result, C) he shouldn’t be starting.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
the post was about elton's effect on miller
not iguodala
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
miller will get his regardless of who's in the lineup
as i said, i though miller looked old at the beginning of the season, and i think it’s foolish to blame that on elton. i’m completely dismissing that because, well, that’s the amount of thought i think the idea deserves at this point.
it wasn’t just miller who was struggling at the beginning of the season. everyone’s numbers were down (except thad, who’s awesome). miller sucked, but so did iggy, and lou, and slickwillie, and elton. the whole thing was an abortion, and if you want to know why, see my previous posts.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
i understand that
but history shows that miller plays his worst with elton. he shot 40% from the field when they played together in LA.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
he’s an average rebounder, he’s an average defender
are you kidding me?
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
I expect to hear he’s also a terrible facilitator
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
eduardo najera is an excellent rebounder.
reggie evans is an excellent rebounder.
iguodala is big, and he gets a fair amount of boards, but he’s not elite, and he’s not even very good.
as for his defense, well, again, he’s big, and that’s a point in his favor, but i don’t see an elite shut down perimeter defender.
i’m not gonna start another abreu debate, but i trust my instincts quite a bit and i’ve yet to see any argument, statistic, or play that tells me anything other than he’s regressed in a significant and meaningful way.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
And yet – we should take you seriously when you start off by being insulting.
Using Reggie Evans in your argument weakens because if you do a little research you’ll find that his impact on rebounding is at best neutral – and really only helps on the offensive end – plus it demonstrates that you don’t get the point – Reggie Evans does NOTHING but rebound – Iguodala does many things well – while he does none of them great – very few players do many things well in the way he does
and you’re ‘excuse’ that he’s big is just as bad – he uses his size to his advantage
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
the idea that brand adversely affects miller is, at best, premature
i think it’s quite a bit beyond that, bordering on terrible.
can you explain how a bench player who consistently pulls down 12 rebounds per 36 minutes is an average rebounder? or how a SF who pulls down 5 and a half is anything but?
i don’t think iguodala is a marginal player because of his rebounding, or his defense. i think he’s a marginal player because, at age 22 he shot 50% from the field. and at age 23 he shot 82% from the FT line, and then, at age 25, when he was supposed to break out and become a franchise player, he crumbled.
i know full well that he’s a useful player, but at this point, if i’m dileo, i’ve got no time for his enigma. he;s not good enough to have his own phrase (iggy being iggy), and i think this team will only go as far as thad takes it, which means, he starts, iggy sits.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
Oh – i see – you’re argument is so strong you want to use counting stats.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08PHI9.HTM
Please to see how bad the defensive rebounding is when reggies on the floor vs off – his positive offensive rebounding is super duper – but please start subtracting all the offensive rebounds he gets from his own misses cause his offensive game is TERRIBLE
He has half a good skill – offensive rebounding – but it’s bashed by his terrible offensive game…he’s offensive game is worse than sams.
But this is pointless – you’re arguing about reggie evans who is a power forward with one minor skill offset by his other skills sucking and comparing him to a G/F in Iguodala and using that to strengthen your argument.
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
yeah that's like saying brevin knight passes so much better than rudy gay does
so he must be a better fit to any team
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
it's a rate statistic, not a counting stat
and i call bullshit on this. using your numbers:
reggie evans’ OREB% is 11.5 and his DREB% is 22.3
tim duncan’s OREB% is 9.8 and his DREB% is 25.7
do you really want to say that reggie is anything other than very good approaching elite?
i really don’t know what you’re trying to point to here.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions
look at the stats dude
and read this part of the post.
The thought that Andre plays his worst basketball with Elton as his teammate would not have even crossed my mind had they not played together for a season in Los Angeles. The season was 2002-2003. Andre, a 26-year old stud, shot a career low 40.6%.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
for the clippers, who are a sinkhole.
under a coach, who presumably was a stooge.
as i said, at best this call is premature. if this is a true correlation, the year is screwed anyway, and we’re best off playing lou thad and marreese 30 minutes a night.
i mean, really, what are you saying? andre and elton have no chemistry, so we do what? throw our hands in the air and give up?
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 12, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
uhhh, try to fix it.
and if Miller’s numbers plummet when Elton returns, it makes him being traded before the deadline more realistic, because Elton’s going to be around a while.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
this was fun to read.
"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"
Thank you for opening all our eyes.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
by Jordan Sams on Jan 12, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
There's no dening the stats dude.
For whatever reason Miller shoots a much lower percentage when he plays with Brand.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
Questions
Before I react to this I need more information about how the analysis was done.
How did you come to those numbers?
basketball-reference
they played together in 2002-2003 and for the first part of this season. besides that miller hasn’t been on a team with him.
i did some math
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
Hmm
Your post made me look at the numbers. I am about to post my opinion on it and I will be linking to your post as well.
That's what it's intended for.
I look forward to reading it.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
bill simmons
i don’t know how many of you read him, but he predicted in his nba preview article that the sixers are vastly overrated and would barely get into the playoffs
basically — because the andre miller/elton brand experiment has already been tried and failed once with the clippers.. so what makes everyone think that 6 years and a major injury later, the duo would be able to all of a sudden make a contender out of philly
i read this.. thought about it for a good 20 seconds.. and agreed immediately.. this team is much better without brand.. but i don’t think the reason can be explained through numbers and stats.. there’s gotta be somethin else.. the whole team seems to tighten up with brand on the floor.. like maybe they’re trying too hard to play on a higher calibur level just because of his presence?
i know one thing for sure — willie green blows no matter who’s on the floor
WFC
Bill Simmons knows very little about sports outside of Boston and he thinks he’s funny
That’s what I know about Bill Simmons
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
one thing bill simmons didn’t mention is that with the clippers they planned for brand and miller to be the 1 & 2 scorers on the team… the sixers are not asking miller to be one of the top two scorers but rather brand and iggy and even thad to be the top 3
by Tanner Steidel on Jan 12, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions
so yes bill simmons was correct that sixers were overrated at the start of the year but for a completely flawed reason… he looks smart because he said that but really it was sure luck that it happened that way
by Tanner Steidel on Jan 12, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, that was the point of this post
andre miller and elton brand don’t work well together for some reason. i don’t know what that reason it, but it’s a fact.
i’m not saying that elton sucks and doesn’t fit on this team. i’m just saying him and andre miller don’t play well together.
and i’m hoping dileo integrates brand, while still allowing the team to play like they have as of late.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
you don’t read enough bill simmons then, he knows more about sports than most people give him credit for
and i don’t know if you find anything or anyone funny, man.. for the 4 weeks i been lurking/posting here, i’ve noticed that you’re quite the negative nancy
WFC
I find many things funny – most of your posts make me laugh – but that’s probably unintentional. I find many things funny but see, they’re actually funny.
I have read quite enough bill simmons to form an opinion on whether he’s funny and or informed. The fact that he’s so popular with the masses who read ESPN is evidence in and of itself of his lack of insight intelligence or humor, cause if he had those things he wouldn’t work for ESPN
by jemagee on Jan 12, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
for the record
i think simmons is hilarious and he does know quite a bit about sports.
he’s says some absurd things occasionally, that are just flat-out wrong or something i strongly disagree with, but we all say stuff like that once in a while.
i’ve been able to put his annoying boston bias and sometimes absurd statements behind me, because he is entertaining and does drop heavy knowledge sometimes.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
i just don’t read anything celts/pats/bosox related.. everything else by him is generally entertaining
WFC
no, i completely agree
my buddy jason got me hooked on him a few years ago. i’ll admit, i only read about 60% of his articles these days, but that’s because i’ve listened to every, single one of his podcasts. those are golden, no matter what he’s talking about.
plus, i love that cousin sal is a cowboys fan.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
I'm pretty sure.
Apparently it made people feel strongly one way or another. That’s what I’m looking for.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
interesting
so, what are the options, then?
as far as i can tell, once brand gets back, there won’t be enough minutes at the 3 for both iggy and thad to get the time they need to develop. one of brand or marreese is either gonna have to shift over to the 5 to accommodate that (which would be a terrible defensive decision), or gonna have to sacrifice their minutes (which would be a terrible personnel decision).
i know that we’re not paid to think about this, but i don’t see a good option.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 13, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
and trading miller isn't gonna help any of this.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 13, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
Well the first thing you do is hope that Iguodala’s emergence in Brands absence isn’t position dependent – so you try that first and then move on from there…the assumption that his numbers will regress once he moves back isn’t one I’d make right away.
by jemagee on Jan 13, 2009 10:27 AM PST reply actions
I agree ... but they have to plan for whatever may happen.
"I need to do a better job of putting players in the right position to perennially come up short of expectations"
So here’s a hypothetical
Let’s say this ‘SG/SF’ thing continues for Iguodala and for some unexplainable reason Iguodala just performs better as SF – do you try Young as the ‘SG’ just so he’s starting and Willie isn’t?
by jemagee on Jan 14, 2009 10:01 AM PST reply actions
absolutely
i’d put money on it not working. it’s worth a shot though.
Pimpin' ain't easy and neither is being a Sixers fan. I manage to do both. Join me at Liberty Ballers, the SBNation 76ers blog. Don't make fun of the name either. It has nothing to do with the New York Liberty of the WNBA.
by Jordan Sams on Jan 14, 2009 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
DiLeo
Great job on the site. You make some great points, but I do think Miller will continue his great play when Brand comes back. I don’t think there is enough of a history to say that one has to do with the other. I think the real problem was Cheeks had no clear offensive system and DiLeo does. Let’s hope it works!
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